0x4f6c…6909

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4f6c09f6ab1a9f59935c29ca9fb380319bf76909
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.8pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

68% @ 57.3¢

Brier

0.133

Resolved

266

Avg size

$87

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	43% (21/49)	+26%	49
Sports	33% (1/3)	-90%	3

Other49 bets
Hit rate
43% (21/49)
ROI
+26%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-90%

Track record

42% hit · 22/52

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$364	83.7¢	Won
Will Trump announce tariffs on Germany on April 2?	No	$132	77.9¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Italy / Vatican?	Yes	$3	1.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?	Yes	$52	52.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in February?	Yes	$71	31.6¢	Won
Will Trump announce tariffs on France on April 2?	No	$107	71.3¢	Won
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in February?	Yes	$71	47.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump say "DOGE" or "Department of Governmental Efficiency" during Super Bowl pregame interview?	Yes	$30	2.9¢	Lost
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$14	24.8¢	Won
Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by Friday?	Yes	$6	6.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" during Super Bowl pregame interview?	Yes	$20	45.8¢	Lost
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?	Yes	$241	68.7¢	Won
Will the ECB announce no change?	Yes	$261	35.9¢	Lost
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA	Canada	$76	54.0¢	Lost
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?	No	$554	53.8¢	Lost
Will the Black Woman statue be removed from Times Square early?	Yes	$97	74.4¢	Won
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$249	82.9¢	Won
Will Charlie Kirk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$40	8.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine" during Super Bowl pregame interview?	Yes	$25	11.5¢	Lost
Will Nikola Jokić win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP?	Yes	$3	3.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?	Zelenskyy	$10	18.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump say "Chiefs" during Super Bowl pregame interview?	Yes	$5	10.0¢	Lost
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$962	66.9¢	Lost
Will Greta Thunberg rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	No	$178	89.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by February 28, 2025?	Yes	$121	62.5¢	Won
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease?	No	$88	44.0¢	Lost
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease?	Yes	$462	62.9¢	Won
Will Trump attend Hulk Hogan's funeral?	No	$10	57.0¢	Won
Will Trump claim he crashed the market on purpose?	No	$261	87.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or less in February?	Yes	$10	5.1¢	Lost
Will Trump try and fire Powell before June?	No	$589	83.6¢	Won
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	$14.0k	71.3¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?	No	$177	68.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" during Super Bowl pregame interview?	Yes	$20	36.0¢	Lost
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?	Yes	$406	75.6¢	Won
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days?	No	$92	83.8¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?	No	$101	71.9¢	Won
Iran ballistic missile strike on Israel by Friday?	No	$168	67.4¢	Lost
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$346	46.6¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?	Yes	$196	84.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump give Elon Musk a nickname before July?	Yes	$6	11.0¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	No	$1.2k	72.4¢	Won
US military action against Iran by Monday?	Yes	$5	16.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "Eagles" during Super Bowl pregame interview?	Yes	$5	7.4¢	Lost
Will Bill Clinton Testify to Congress about Epstein?	No	$13	6.9¢	Lost
Elon Musk out as Senior Advisor to Trump in April?	Yes	$18	9.0¢	Lost
Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting?	Yes	$25	82.0¢	Won
Will Luka Dončić win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP?	Yes	$3	1.7¢	Lost
5kt meteor strike in 2025?	Yes	$211	31.5¢	Lost
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?	Yes	$143	29.1¢	Lost

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$364 @ 83.7¢
Will Trump announce tariffs on Germany on April 2?Won
No$132 @ 77.9¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Italy / Vatican?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?Lost
Yes$52 @ 52.0¢
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in February?Won
Yes$71 @ 31.6¢
Will Trump announce tariffs on France on April 2?Won
No$107 @ 71.3¢
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in February?Lost
Yes$71 @ 47.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "DOGE" or "Department of Governmental Efficiency" during Super Bowl pregame interview?Lost
Yes$30 @ 2.9¢
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?Won
Yes$14 @ 24.8¢
Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by Friday?Lost
Yes$6 @ 6.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" during Super Bowl pregame interview?Lost
Yes$20 @ 45.8¢
Will the Liberal Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?Won
Yes$241 @ 68.7¢
Will the ECB announce no change?Lost
Yes$261 @ 35.9¢
Men's Final - Canada vs. USALost
Canada$76 @ 54.0¢
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?Lost
No$554 @ 53.8¢
Will the Black Woman statue be removed from Times Square early?Won
Yes$97 @ 74.4¢
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$249 @ 82.9¢
Will Charlie Kirk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
Yes$40 @ 8.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine" during Super Bowl pregame interview?Lost
Yes$25 @ 11.5¢
Will Nikola Jokić win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?Lost
Zelenskyy$10 @ 18.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "Chiefs" during Super Bowl pregame interview?Lost
Yes$5 @ 10.0¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$962 @ 66.9¢
Will Greta Thunberg rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Won
No$178 @ 89.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by February 28, 2025?Won
Yes$121 @ 62.5¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease?Lost
No$88 @ 44.0¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease?Won
Yes$462 @ 62.9¢
Will Trump attend Hulk Hogan's funeral?Won
No$10 @ 57.0¢
Will Trump claim he crashed the market on purpose?Won
No$261 @ 87.0¢
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% or less in February?Lost
Yes$10 @ 5.1¢
Will Trump try and fire Powell before June?Won
No$589 @ 83.6¢
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?Won
No$14.0k @ 71.3¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?Lost
No$177 @ 68.1¢
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" during Super Bowl pregame interview?Lost
Yes$20 @ 36.0¢
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?Won
Yes$406 @ 75.6¢
Will Trump impose tariffs on France in the first 100 days?Won
No$92 @ 83.8¢
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?Won
No$101 @ 71.9¢
Iran ballistic missile strike on Israel by Friday? Lost
No$168 @ 67.4¢
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$346 @ 46.6¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?Lost
Yes$196 @ 84.0¢
Will Donald Trump give Elon Musk a nickname before July?Lost
Yes$6 @ 11.0¢
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Won
No$1.2k @ 72.4¢
US military action against Iran by Monday?Won
Yes$5 @ 16.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "Eagles" during Super Bowl pregame interview?Lost
Yes$5 @ 7.4¢
Will Bill Clinton Testify to Congress about Epstein?Lost
No$13 @ 6.9¢
Elon Musk out as Senior Advisor to Trump in April?Lost
Yes$18 @ 9.0¢
Will the ECB announce no change at the September meeting?Won
Yes$25 @ 82.0¢
Will Luka Dončić win the 2026 NBA All-Star Game MVP?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.7¢
5kt meteor strike in 2025?Lost
Yes$211 @ 31.5¢
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$143 @ 29.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?	Science	No	$1.7k	74.3¢
Will Donald Trump be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	Culture	No	$957	90.3¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$850	80.9¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?	Economy	No	$798	82.2¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$377	79.6¢
5kt meteor strike in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$375	43.8¢
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?	Politics	No	$96	80.0¢

Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?Science
No$1.7k @ 74.3¢
Will Donald Trump be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Culture
No$957 @ 90.3¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$850 @ 80.9¢
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?Economy
No$798 @ 82.2¢
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Economy
Yes$377 @ 79.6¢
5kt meteor strike in 2026?Tech
Yes$375 @ 43.8¢
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?Politics
No$96 @ 80.0¢