0x4ef3…7bd0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4ef3f1f4dcd804c5ed585d18f1c77700ae677bd0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.1pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

43% @ 29.7¢

Brier

0.163

Resolved

287

Avg size

$62

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Tech	33% (5/15)	+36%	15
Other	50% (6/12)	-33%	12
Science	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Politics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Tech15 bets
Hit rate
33% (5/15)
ROI
+36%
Other12 bets
Hit rate
50% (6/12)
ROI
-33%
Science2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Politics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

37% hit · 11/30

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$979	10.4¢	Lost
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$12	14.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$78	0.7¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 28, 2026?	Yes	$39	34.8¢	Won
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?	No	$25	0.2¢	Lost
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$119	46.0¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	9.1¢	Lost
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?	No	$8	61.2¢	Won
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?	Yes	$1	40.0¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?	No	$252	11.1¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?	Yes	$2.7k	71.0¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$171	38.0¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 29, 2026?	Yes	$88	24.8¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	$2.4k	54.4¢	Won
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	66.9¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$56	1.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on September 22?	Yes	$10	52.0¢	Lost
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?	Yes	$558	53.9¢	Won
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?	No	$530	0.6¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$262	37.1¢	Won
Claude 4.7 released by May 31?	Yes	$297	53.5¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?	No	$1.9k	34.1¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?	Yes	$504	30.0¢	Lost
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on September 24, 2026?	Yes	$54	20.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 22?	Yes	$20	4.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on September 22?	Yes	$10	50.2¢	Lost
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$3.7k	25.9¢	Lost
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 11?	Yes	$12	11.0¢	Lost
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 24, 2026?	No	$171	30.0¢	Lost
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Yes	$960	51.7¢	Won

Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$979 @ 10.4¢
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 14.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$78 @ 0.7¢
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 28, 2026?Won
Yes$39 @ 34.8¢
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?Lost
No$25 @ 0.2¢
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$119 @ 46.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 9.1¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?Won
No$8 @ 61.2¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?Lost
Yes$1 @ 40.0¢
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?Lost
No$252 @ 11.1¢
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?Won
Yes$2.7k @ 71.0¢
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$171 @ 38.0¢
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 29, 2026?Lost
Yes$88 @ 24.8¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 54.4¢
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 66.9¢
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$56 @ 1.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on September 22?Lost
Yes$10 @ 52.0¢
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?Won
Yes$558 @ 53.9¢
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?Lost
No$530 @ 0.6¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$262 @ 37.1¢
Claude 4.7 released by May 31?Won
Yes$297 @ 53.5¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?Won
No$1.9k @ 34.1¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$504 @ 30.0¢
Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on September 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$54 @ 20.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 22?Lost
Yes$20 @ 4.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on September 22?Lost
Yes$10 @ 50.2¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.7k @ 25.9¢
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 11?Lost
Yes$12 @ 11.0¢
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 24, 2026?Lost
No$171 @ 30.0¢
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?Won
Yes$960 @ 51.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$43	65.0¢
Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 15, 2026?	Tech	No	$39	49.0¢

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$43 @ 65.0¢
Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 15, 2026?Tech
No$39 @ 49.0¢