0x4ebb…525f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4ebb04b6cb81590cd06284144b2f482f38ea525f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.6pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

78% @ 70.0¢

Brier

0.146

Resolved

513

Avg size

$68

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	76% (90/119)	+17%	119
Sports	80% (55/69)	+15%	69
Politics	79% (44/56)	+18%	56
Geopolitics	73% (11/15)	+18%	15
Crypto	100% (9/9)	+8%	9
Tech	75% (3/4)	+14%	4
Economy	100% (4/4)	+48%	4

Other119 bets
Hit rate
76% (90/119)
ROI
+17%
Sports69 bets
Hit rate
80% (55/69)
ROI
+15%
Politics56 bets
Hit rate
79% (44/56)
ROI
+18%
Geopolitics15 bets
Hit rate
73% (11/15)
ROI
+18%
Crypto9 bets
Hit rate
100% (9/9)
ROI
+8%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+14%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+48%

Track record

78% hit · 216/276

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?	Yes	$5	94.0¢	Lost
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026?	Yes	$5	93.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 18?	Yes	$5	91.0¢	Won
Will Linda Annis win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election?	No	$5	90.3¢	Won
Will Brenda Locke win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election?	Yes	$5	91.0¢	Lost
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	$5	93.0¢	Won
Stephen F. Austin vs. Nicholls State	Stephen F. Austin	$5	93.0¢	Won
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-10-17?	No	$5	94.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 17?	Yes	$5	93.7¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 17?	Yes	$5	92.0¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?	Yes	$5	92.0¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 16?	Yes	$5	94.9¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 16?	Yes	$5	91.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 16?	Yes	$5	91.0¢	Won
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 15, 2026?	No	$5	95.0¢	Won
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?	No	$5	92.0¢	Won
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?	No	$5	93.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 15?	No	$5	91.0¢	Won
Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-08-10?	No	$5	93.0¢	Won
Will LASK Linz win on 2026-10-14?	No	$5	91.0¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 14?	No	$5	95.0¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in September?	No	$5	92.6¢	Won
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?	No	$5	92.9¢	Won
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in September?	No	$5	95.0¢	Won
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	$5	91.0¢	Lost
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	$5	94.0¢	Won
Tiburon: Darwin Blanch vs Bryce Nakashima	Darwin Blanch	$5	80.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$101	72.0¢	Won
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$101	69.8¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$202	62.0¢	Won
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$20	76.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$302	86.0¢	Won
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$20	81.0¢	Won
Korea Open: Alina Korneeva vs Darya Astakhova	Alina Korneeva	$5	82.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$251	72.5¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$610	76.0¢	Won
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Yes	$5	70.0¢	Won
Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs?	Yes	$100	76.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$101	68.0¢	Won
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$200	69.5¢	Lost
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?	No	$302	85.0¢	Won
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?	No	$110	75.9¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	$102	70.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$152	86.0¢	Won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds	Yes	$103	52.0¢	Won
Tolentino: Federica Urgesi vs Oksana Selekhmeteva	Federica Urgesi	$5	80.0¢	Lost
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	Yes	$5	66.0¢	Won
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?	No	$10	58.0¢	Won
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?	No	$100	42.0¢	Lost
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$298	76.0¢	Won

Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 94.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 93.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 18?Won
Yes$5 @ 91.0¢
Will Linda Annis win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election?Won
No$5 @ 90.3¢
Will Brenda Locke win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 91.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 93.0¢
Stephen F. Austin vs. Nicholls StateWon
Stephen F. Austin$5 @ 93.0¢
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-10-17?Won
No$5 @ 94.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 17?Won
Yes$5 @ 93.7¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 17?Won
Yes$5 @ 92.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 92.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 16?Won
Yes$5 @ 94.9¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 16?Won
Yes$5 @ 91.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 16?Won
Yes$5 @ 91.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 15, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 95.0¢
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?Won
No$5 @ 92.0¢
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?Won
No$5 @ 93.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 15?Won
No$5 @ 91.0¢
Will Deportivo Pereira win on 2026-08-10?Won
No$5 @ 93.0¢
Will LASK Linz win on 2026-10-14?Won
No$5 @ 91.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 14?Won
No$5 @ 95.0¢
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in September?Won
No$5 @ 92.6¢
Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?Won
No$5 @ 92.9¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in September?Won
No$5 @ 95.0¢
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-13?Lost
Yes$5 @ 91.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 94.0¢
Tiburon: Darwin Blanch vs Bryce NakashimaWon
Darwin Blanch$5 @ 80.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$101 @ 72.0¢
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$101 @ 69.8¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$202 @ 62.0¢
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
No$20 @ 76.0¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$302 @ 86.0¢
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
No$20 @ 81.0¢
Korea Open: Alina Korneeva vs Darya AstakhovaWon
Alina Korneeva$5 @ 82.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$251 @ 72.5¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$610 @ 76.0¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Won
Yes$5 @ 70.0¢
Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs?Won
Yes$100 @ 76.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$101 @ 68.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$200 @ 69.5¢
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?Won
No$302 @ 85.0¢
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?Won
No$110 @ 75.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?Won
No$102 @ 70.0¢
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$152 @ 86.0¢
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsWon
Yes$103 @ 52.0¢
Tolentino: Federica Urgesi vs Oksana SelekhmetevaLost
Federica Urgesi$5 @ 80.0¢
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Won
Yes$5 @ 66.0¢
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?Won
No$10 @ 58.0¢
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?Lost
No$100 @ 42.0¢
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$298 @ 76.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Politics	No	$298	82.0¢
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$207	29.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?	—	Yes	$192	71.9¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?	—	Yes	$101	40.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?	—	No	$101	44.0¢
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$100	69.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?	—	No	$100	49.0¢
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	No	$100	73.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?	—	No	$100	65.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	—	No	$100	74.0¢
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?	Sports	No	$100	42.0¢
Vancouver: Keegan Rice vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz	—	Pablo Llamas Ruiz	$99	72.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	—	No	$99	64.0¢
San Marino: Daniel Rincon vs Juan Carlos Prado	—	Daniel Rincon	$99	57.0¢
Zug: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Alvaro Guillen Meza	—	Buvaysar Gadamauri	$99	47.0¢
Croatia Open: Dusan Lajovic vs Luca Van Assche	—	Dusan Lajovic	$99	44.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	—	No	$94	50.6¢
Bunschoten: Andres Santamarta vs Max Schoenhaus	—	Andres Santamarta	$70	40.0¢
Swiss Open: Alexander Bublik vs Quentin Halys	—	Alexander Bublik	$38	65.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?	—	Yes	$5	70.0¢
National Bank Open: Solana Sierra vs Sloane Stephens	—	Solana Sierra	$5	60.0¢
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?	Politics	No	$5	19.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?	—	No	$2	36.0¢
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	—	No	$1	64.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$0	73.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Geopolitics	No	$0	62.0¢
Hamburg: Cezar Cretu vs Marvin Moeller	—	Cezar Cretu	$0	0.0¢

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Politics
No$298 @ 82.0¢
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?Politics
Yes$207 @ 29.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?—
Yes$192 @ 71.9¢
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?—
Yes$101 @ 40.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?—
No$101 @ 44.0¢
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$100 @ 69.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?—
No$100 @ 49.0¢
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
No$100 @ 73.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?—
No$100 @ 65.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?—
No$100 @ 74.0¢
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?Sports
No$100 @ 42.0¢
Vancouver: Keegan Rice vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz—
Pablo Llamas Ruiz$99 @ 72.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?—
No$99 @ 64.0¢
San Marino: Daniel Rincon vs Juan Carlos Prado—
Daniel Rincon$99 @ 57.0¢
Zug: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Alvaro Guillen Meza—
Buvaysar Gadamauri$99 @ 47.0¢
Croatia Open: Dusan Lajovic vs Luca Van Assche—
Dusan Lajovic$99 @ 44.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?—
No$94 @ 50.6¢
Bunschoten: Andres Santamarta vs Max Schoenhaus—
Andres Santamarta$70 @ 40.0¢
Swiss Open: Alexander Bublik vs Quentin Halys—
Alexander Bublik$38 @ 65.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?—
Yes$5 @ 70.0¢
National Bank Open: Solana Sierra vs Sloane Stephens—
Solana Sierra$5 @ 60.0¢
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?Politics
No$5 @ 19.0¢
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?—
No$2 @ 36.0¢
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?—
No$1 @ 64.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$0 @ 73.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Geopolitics
No$0 @ 62.0¢
Hamburg: Cezar Cretu vs Marvin Moeller—
Cezar Cretu$0 @ 0.0¢