0x4ea6…b249

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4ea67bdde5af4942a2c8f117730064cbe04ab249
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.3pp

ROI

+70%

Win rate

22% @ 18.6¢

Brier

0.123

Resolved

1001

Avg size

$55

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	24% (73/302)	+91%	302
Politics	4% (1/23)	-61%	23
Geopolitics	0% (0/8)	-100%	8

Other302 bets
Hit rate
24% (73/302)
ROI
+91%
Politics23 bets
Hit rate
4% (1/23)
ROI
-61%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/8)
ROI
-100%

Track record

22% hit · 74/333

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	$100	18.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Congratulate" or "Congratulations" during events with Polish president on September 3?	No	$1	18.0¢	Won
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 27?	Yes	$18	0.7¢	Lost
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?	Yes	$25	42.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" during events with South Korean president on August 25?	No	$2	50.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?	Yes	$5	17.8¢	Lost
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?	No	$15	26.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	No	$31	53.3¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?	Yes	$21	20.3¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	Yes	$100	9.8¢	Lost
Bitcoin above $112K on August 27?	Yes	$5	29.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "NATO" during events with Polish president on September 3?	No	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$977	19.5¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$42	17.4¢	Lost
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 21?	Yes	$9	1.2¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?	Yes	$88	44.0¢	Lost
Will Netanyahu say "Israel" 50+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?	No	$10	51.0¢	Lost
Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by Friday?	No	$127	57.9¢	Lost
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?	Yes	$48	16.5¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?	Yes	$5	19.2¢	Lost
Kilmar Abrego Garcia deported by September 30?	Yes	$2	33.0¢	Lost
Israel strike on Damascus by August 31?	Yes	$2	7.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Turkey" 8+ times during events with Turkish president on September 25?	No	$4	33.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$300	45.7¢	Won
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025?	Yes	$17	48.0¢	Lost
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?	No	$14	46.0¢	Won
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 17?	Yes	$38	3.3¢	Lost
More EU sanctions on Russia by August 31?	Yes	$12	22.8¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?	Yes	$31	0.5¢	Lost
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 18?	Yes	$10	2.3¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?	Yes	$1	2.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Kurd" or "Kurdish" during events with Turkish president on September 25?	Yes	$2	32.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?	Yes	$126	14.0¢	Lost
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?	No	$20	44.0¢	Won
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?	Yes	$152	11.3¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$75	72.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	$6	6.3¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$95	15.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Hell" during the announcement on December 22?	No	$2	38.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Drone" during events with Turkish president on September 25?	No	$3	46.0¢	Won
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?	Yes	$10	17.0¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25?	Yes	$32	11.7¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$84	4.7¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$200	5.7¢	Lost
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?	No	$208	2.3¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?	Yes	$24	26.0¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$12	2.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike 3 countries in February 2026?	Yes	$11	6.7¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026?	Yes	$100	69.0¢	Lost

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Lost
No$100 @ 18.3¢
Will Trump say "Congratulate" or "Congratulations" during events with Polish president on September 3?Won
No$1 @ 18.0¢
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 27?Lost
Yes$18 @ 0.7¢
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?Lost
Yes$25 @ 42.0¢
Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" during events with South Korean president on August 25?Lost
No$2 @ 50.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?Lost
Yes$5 @ 17.8¢
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?Lost
No$15 @ 26.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Won
No$31 @ 53.3¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Lost
Yes$21 @ 20.3¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Lost
Yes$100 @ 9.8¢
Bitcoin above $112K on August 27?Lost
Yes$5 @ 29.0¢
Will Trump say "NATO" during events with Polish president on September 3?Lost
No$1 @ 14.0¢
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$977 @ 19.5¢
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$42 @ 17.4¢
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 21?Lost
Yes$9 @ 1.2¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$88 @ 44.0¢
Will Netanyahu say "Israel" 50+ times during address to UN General Assembly on Sept 26?Lost
No$10 @ 51.0¢
Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by Friday?Lost
No$127 @ 57.9¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Lost
Yes$48 @ 16.5¢
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in July?Lost
Yes$5 @ 19.2¢
Kilmar Abrego Garcia deported by September 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 33.0¢
Israel strike on Damascus by August 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.3¢
Will Trump say "Turkey" 8+ times during events with Turkish president on September 25?Lost
No$4 @ 33.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$300 @ 45.7¢
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025?Lost
Yes$17 @ 48.0¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30?Won
No$14 @ 46.0¢
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 17?Lost
Yes$38 @ 3.3¢
More EU sanctions on Russia by August 31? Lost
Yes$12 @ 22.8¢
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$31 @ 0.5¢
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 18?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.3¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.1¢
Will Trump say "Kurd" or "Kurdish" during events with Turkish president on September 25?Lost
Yes$2 @ 32.0¢
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?Lost
Yes$126 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August?Won
No$20 @ 44.0¢
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?Lost
Yes$152 @ 11.3¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
No$75 @ 72.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$6 @ 6.3¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$95 @ 15.7¢
Will Trump say "Hell" during the announcement on December 22?Won
No$2 @ 38.0¢
Will Trump say "Drone" during events with Turkish president on September 25?Won
No$3 @ 46.0¢
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?Lost
Yes$10 @ 17.0¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 25?Lost
Yes$32 @ 11.7¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$84 @ 4.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$200 @ 5.7¢
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?Lost
No$208 @ 2.3¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?Won
Yes$24 @ 26.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 2.0¢
Will Israel strike 3 countries in February 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 6.7¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 69.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$100	17.5¢

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Politics
Yes$100 @ 17.5¢