0x4e84…ef69

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4e84ce1599d3d0272932a729c2a3310b734bef69
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.3pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

40% @ 37.1¢

Brier

0.206

Resolved

1732

Avg size

$22

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	42% (13/31)	+19%	31
Other	40% (4/10)	+22%	10
Geopolitics	43% (3/7)	-46%	7
Tech	80% (4/5)	+28%	5
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics31 bets
Hit rate
42% (13/31)
ROI
+19%
Other10 bets
Hit rate
40% (4/10)
ROI
+22%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
-46%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+28%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

44% hit · 24/55

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026	No	$4	93.9¢	Won
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	Yes	$5	0.7¢	Lost
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.6¢	Lost
Will SB Energy IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	$1	62.7¢	Won
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	No	$103	71.0¢	Won
GTA VI released by September 30?	Yes	$20	0.1¢	Lost
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.8¢	Lost
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	No	$85	87.2¢	Won
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	No	$84	75.8¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	$106	12.2¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$5.5k	32.5¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$2.3k	59.8¢	Won
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	No	$496	77.5¢	Won
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$565	14.3¢	Lost
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	No	$354	66.8¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	Yes	$50	10.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	No	$119	17.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	Yes	$61	81.1¢	Won
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	$10	88.0¢	Won
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	Yes	$111	6.3¢	Lost
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	$534	69.1¢	Won
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$863	19.1¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	No	$137	34.7¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$240	79.9¢	Won
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	$20	0.7¢	Lost
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 18?	Yes	$24	7.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	$118	87.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	$270	4.3¢	Lost
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	$1.7k	67.2¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$5.3k	22.8¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	$27	76.2¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$41	0.6¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	$262	54.6¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$452	51.2¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$3.5k	59.7¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$7.6k	31.3¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	No	$182	2.8¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	$997	43.5¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	$789	68.0¢	Won
Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	$20	3.0¢	Lost
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?	No	$265	78.2¢	Won
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?	Yes	$19	16.2¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$20	6.9¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	$821	2.9¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	No	$0	27.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?	Yes	$176	73.9¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$540	25.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$684	17.7¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?	No	$61	44.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?	Yes	$286	68.3¢	Won

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026Won
No$4 @ 93.9¢
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.7¢
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.6¢
Will SB Energy IPO by September 30, 2026?Won
No$1 @ 62.7¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Won
No$103 @ 71.0¢
GTA VI released by September 30?Lost
Yes$20 @ 0.1¢
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.8¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Won
No$85 @ 87.2¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Won
No$84 @ 75.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Lost
No$106 @ 12.2¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$5.5k @ 32.5¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 59.8¢
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?Won
No$496 @ 77.5¢
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$565 @ 14.3¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Won
No$354 @ 66.8¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?Lost
Yes$50 @ 10.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?Lost
No$119 @ 17.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?Won
Yes$61 @ 81.1¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Won
No$10 @ 88.0¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Lost
Yes$111 @ 6.3¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Won
No$534 @ 69.1¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$863 @ 19.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?Lost
No$137 @ 34.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?Won
Yes$240 @ 79.9¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$20 @ 0.7¢
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 18?Lost
Yes$24 @ 7.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
No$118 @ 87.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Lost
Yes$270 @ 4.3¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
No$1.7k @ 67.2¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$5.3k @ 22.8¢
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?Won
No$27 @ 76.2¢
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$41 @ 0.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$262 @ 54.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$452 @ 51.2¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
No$3.5k @ 59.7¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$7.6k @ 31.3¢
Will Trump visit China by June 30?Lost
No$182 @ 2.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Lost
No$997 @ 43.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Won
Yes$789 @ 68.0¢
Iran leadership change by June 30?Lost
Yes$20 @ 3.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?Won
No$265 @ 78.2¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?Lost
Yes$19 @ 16.2¢
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 6.9¢
Will Trump visit China by May 31?Lost
No$821 @ 2.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?Lost
No$0 @ 27.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027?Won
Yes$176 @ 73.9¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$540 @ 25.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$684 @ 17.7¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?Lost
No$61 @ 44.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?Won
Yes$286 @ 68.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$545	66.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Politics	Yes	$476	78.4¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$446	55.2¢
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Politics	No	$417	91.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$400	45.6¢
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?	Politics	No	$398	67.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$381	63.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	No	$368	15.9¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$345	78.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	Yes	$344	59.9¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$342	75.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Politics	Yes	$336	36.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$329	64.7¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Business	Yes	$308	9.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Business	No	$306	31.9¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	Business	Yes	$289	25.7¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?	Politics	No	$252	77.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Politics	Yes	$240	41.5¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	Politics	No	$209	54.8¢
Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$196	25.7¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Business	No	$188	23.4¢
Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by October 31?	Politics	No	$180	82.7¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$169	81.4¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	Culture	No	$150	87.6¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Politics	No	$147	76.8¢
Will SB Energy IPO by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$146	78.3¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$142	90.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$133	79.7¢
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$128	39.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$127	94.4¢

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$545 @ 66.6¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Politics
Yes$476 @ 78.4¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Politics
No$446 @ 55.2¢
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?Politics
No$417 @ 91.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$400 @ 45.6¢
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?Politics
No$398 @ 67.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?Politics
Yes$381 @ 63.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
No$368 @ 15.9¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$345 @ 78.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
Yes$344 @ 59.9¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$342 @ 75.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Politics
Yes$336 @ 36.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?Politics
No$329 @ 64.7¢
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Business
Yes$308 @ 9.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Business
No$306 @ 31.9¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?Business
Yes$289 @ 25.7¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 5, 2026?Politics
No$252 @ 77.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Politics
Yes$240 @ 41.5¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)Politics
No$209 @ 54.8¢
Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by December 31?Politics
Yes$196 @ 25.7¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Business
No$188 @ 23.4¢
Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by October 31?Politics
No$180 @ 82.7¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$169 @ 81.4¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Culture
No$150 @ 87.6¢
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Politics
No$147 @ 76.8¢
Will SB Energy IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$146 @ 78.3¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$142 @ 90.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?Politics
No$133 @ 79.7¢
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$128 @ 39.8¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$127 @ 94.4¢