0x4e4e…8bd9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4e4e965a833ceff9d0e447753346f347e69c8bd9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+16.1pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

90% @ 73.9¢

Brier

0.113

Resolved

258

Avg size

$137

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	86% (18/21)	+18%	21
Other	81% (13/16)	+18%	16
Geopolitics	75% (3/4)	+14%	4

Politics21 bets
Hit rate
86% (18/21)
ROI
+18%
Other16 bets
Hit rate
81% (13/16)
ROI
+18%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+14%

Track record

83% hit · 34/41

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$1.0k	82.2¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$41	77.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$14	34.8¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	Yes	$111	24.7¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	$176	88.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	$2.4k	79.1¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$2.9k	65.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$661	82.6¢	Won
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?	No	$327	81.8¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	$178	89.0¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$218	87.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	No	$1.4k	80.1¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?	No	$198	86.2¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$556	69.5¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$287	41.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$138	69.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$41	41.1¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$2	10.0¢	Lost
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$162	81.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?	No	$449	89.8¢	Won
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?	No	$410	80.5¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	$54	86.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$2.1k	85.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$305	55.5¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	$3.2k	87.8¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?	No	$252	84.0¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	No	$64	64.1¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	$830	83.0¢	Won
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?	No	$1.0k	80.4¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	$153	61.2¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	$594	45.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	No	$863	81.2¢	Won
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?	Yes	$7	35.5¢	Won
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	$7.1k	79.5¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	No	$32	35.2¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	No	$2.0k	81.4¢	Won
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?	No	$3.4k	84.1¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$1.1k	85.3¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	No	$130	65.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	$420	84.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia?	No	$2	60.0¢	Won

US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$1.0k @ 82.2¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$41 @ 77.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$14 @ 34.8¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Lost
Yes$111 @ 24.7¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Won
No$176 @ 88.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$2.4k @ 79.1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$2.9k @ 65.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$661 @ 82.6¢
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$327 @ 81.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Won
No$178 @ 89.0¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$218 @ 87.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Won
No$1.4k @ 80.1¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Won
No$198 @ 86.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$556 @ 69.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$287 @ 41.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$138 @ 69.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$41 @ 41.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$2 @ 10.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$162 @ 81.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?Won
No$449 @ 89.8¢
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$410 @ 80.5¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Won
No$54 @ 86.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$2.1k @ 85.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$305 @ 55.5¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
No$3.2k @ 87.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Lost
No$252 @ 84.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Lost
No$64 @ 64.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Won
No$830 @ 83.0¢
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$1.0k @ 80.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Won
No$153 @ 61.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Lost
Yes$594 @ 45.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
No$863 @ 81.2¢
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?Won
Yes$7 @ 35.5¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
No$7.1k @ 79.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Won
No$32 @ 35.2¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Won
No$2.0k @ 81.4¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$3.4k @ 84.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$1.1k @ 85.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?Won
No$130 @ 65.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Won
No$420 @ 84.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia?Won
No$2 @ 60.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$2.8k	91.2¢

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Geopolitics
No$2.8k @ 91.2¢