0x4e14…86f0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4e14d4d80215352a1f2ddb21aae90ba36ad786f0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.8pp

ROI

+52%

Win rate

56% @ 47.6¢

Brier

0.215

Resolved

564

Avg size

$41

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	57% (107/189)	+25%	189
Politics	43% (3/7)	+121%	7
Geopolitics	33% (1/3)	+1%	3
Sports	100% (1/1)	+456%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+452%	1

Other189 bets
Hit rate
57% (107/189)
ROI
+25%
Politics7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
+121%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+1%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+456%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+452%

Track record

56% hit · 113/201

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	$11	1.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	Yes	$56	9.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say “Marjorie Traitor Greene” by February 28?	No	$38	0.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Proclamation" during Greek Independence Day event?	No	$37	35.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Tax on Tips" while addressing the nation on December 17?	Yes	$249	67.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Egg" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?	Yes	$11	39.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (February 8)	Yes	$654	67.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)	No	$64	19.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Angela" or "Merkel" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?	No	$130	65.0¢	Lost
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Tyra Caterina Grant	Tyra Caterina Grant	$540	27.0¢	Lost
Warriors vs. Timberwolves	Timberwolves	$15	0.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	No	$81	13.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$5	80.0¢	Won
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?	No	$140	55.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?	No	$3	11.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)	No	$335	47.4¢	Won
Will Trump say "Constitution" in Rome, GA on February 19?	Yes	$2	28.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "AI" or "Crypto" during the Hanukkah Reception event on Tuesday?	Yes	$119	12.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Dow" or "S&P" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?	Yes	$46	59.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" or "MAGA" this week? (March 8)	No	$40	67.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Biden" 7+ times during Ohio visit?	Yes	$128	31.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026?	Yes	$259	86.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Submarine" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?	No	$16	79.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "NATO" during Board of Peace events on February 19?	No	$15	76.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 29 - January 4)	Yes	$1.1k	81.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Nuclear" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?	No	$247	85.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$231	77.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" 10+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?	Yes	$250	47.6¢	Won
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?	Yes	$1.6k	83.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "Middle East" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$9	85.0¢	Lost
Will Melania say "Intelligence" during Security Council events on March 2?	Yes	$6	40.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Most Favored Nation" during Ohio visit?	No	$71	30.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Colombia" this week? (January 11)	Yes	$61	61.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Mental institution" this week? (January 18)	No	$19	3.3¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$61	26.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times at Rocky Mount events on Friday?	Yes	$47	58.6¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?	No	$93	21.2¢	Won
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$165	74.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times in Rome, GA on February 19?	Yes	$161	63.2¢	Won
Will Analilia Mejia be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?	No	$9	15.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Gold" or "Golden" during Bill Signing on December 12?	Yes	$255	83.5¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$108	36.0¢	Won
Will Leavitt say "Nuclear" or "Iran" during the next White House press briefing?	No	$49	22.0¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?	No	$39	23.1¢	Won
Will the US strike Syria next?	Yes	$97	77.2¢	Won
Will Trump say "Western Hemisphere" during the State of the Union address?	Yes	$10	75.0¢	Won
Will Jensen Huang say "Human Robot" or "Human Robotic" during NVIDIA keynote?	No	$65	9.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Smart" or "High IQ" during the Black History Month reception?	No	$37	12.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Smart" or "High IQ" during the Black History Month reception?	Yes	$60	30.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Green New Scam" during Pennsylvania events on December 9?	Yes	$50	50.0¢	Won

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$11 @ 1.4¢
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?Lost
Yes$56 @ 9.7¢
Will Trump say “Marjorie Traitor Greene” by February 28?Lost
No$38 @ 0.3¢
Will Trump say "Proclamation" during Greek Independence Day event?Won
No$37 @ 35.0¢
Will Trump say "Tax on Tips" while addressing the nation on December 17?Won
Yes$249 @ 67.3¢
Will Trump say "Egg" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?Lost
Yes$11 @ 39.0¢
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (February 8)Won
Yes$654 @ 67.3¢
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)Lost
No$64 @ 19.4¢
Will Trump say "Angela" or "Merkel" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?Lost
No$130 @ 65.0¢
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Tyra Caterina GrantLost
Tyra Caterina Grant$540 @ 27.0¢
Warriors vs. TimberwolvesLost
Timberwolves$15 @ 0.5¢
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Lost
No$81 @ 13.5¢
Will Trump say "Israel" or "Gaza" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
Yes$5 @ 80.0¢
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?Won
No$140 @ 55.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 11.0¢
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)Won
No$335 @ 47.4¢
Will Trump say "Constitution" in Rome, GA on February 19?Lost
Yes$2 @ 28.0¢
Will Trump say "AI" or "Crypto" during the Hanukkah Reception event on Tuesday?Lost
Yes$119 @ 12.8¢
Will Trump say "Dow" or "S&P" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?Won
Yes$46 @ 59.9¢
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" or "MAGA" this week? (March 8)Won
No$40 @ 67.9¢
Will Trump say "Biden" 7+ times during Ohio visit?Lost
Yes$128 @ 31.1¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$259 @ 86.3¢
Will Trump say "Submarine" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?Won
No$16 @ 79.0¢
Will Trump say "NATO" during Board of Peace events on February 19?Lost
No$15 @ 76.9¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 29 - January 4)Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 81.4¢
Will Trump say "Nuclear" at National Defense Authorization Act signing on December 18?Won
No$247 @ 85.0¢
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
Yes$231 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" 10+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?Won
Yes$250 @ 47.6¢
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 83.7¢
Will Trump say "Middle East" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Lost
Yes$9 @ 85.0¢
Will Melania say "Intelligence" during Security Council events on March 2?Won
Yes$6 @ 40.0¢
Will Trump say "Most Favored Nation" during Ohio visit?Won
No$71 @ 30.0¢
Will Trump say "Colombia" this week? (January 11)Won
Yes$61 @ 61.0¢
Will Trump say "Mental institution" this week? (January 18)Lost
No$19 @ 3.3¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$61 @ 26.6¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times at Rocky Mount events on Friday?Won
Yes$47 @ 58.6¢
Will Donald Trump say "fentanyl" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference on Venezuela on Saturday?Won
No$93 @ 21.2¢
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 2+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
Yes$165 @ 74.6¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times in Rome, GA on February 19?Won
Yes$161 @ 63.2¢
Will Analilia Mejia be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special election?Lost
No$9 @ 15.4¢
Will Trump say "Gold" or "Golden" during Bill Signing on December 12?Won
Yes$255 @ 83.5¢
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$108 @ 36.0¢
Will Leavitt say "Nuclear" or "Iran" during the next White House press briefing?Lost
No$49 @ 22.0¢
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?Won
No$39 @ 23.1¢
Will the US strike Syria next?Won
Yes$97 @ 77.2¢
Will Trump say "Western Hemisphere" during the State of the Union address?Won
Yes$10 @ 75.0¢
Will Jensen Huang say "Human Robot" or "Human Robotic" during NVIDIA keynote?Won
No$65 @ 9.9¢
Will Trump say "Smart" or "High IQ" during the Black History Month reception?Lost
No$37 @ 12.9¢
Will Trump say "Smart" or "High IQ" during the Black History Month reception?Won
Yes$60 @ 30.0¢
Will Trump say "Green New Scam" during Pennsylvania events on December 9?Won
Yes$50 @ 50.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$856	68.9¢
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$310	71.6¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$11	1.4¢

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$856 @ 68.9¢
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?Politics
Yes$310 @ 71.6¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$11 @ 1.4¢