0x4e0a…c288

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4e0afd166e16da75d91bd7dc3bcb92b25b93c288
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.1pp

ROI

+13%

Win rate

58% @ 49.7¢

Brier

0.179

Resolved

285

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	49% (54/110)	+15%	110
Politics	56% (9/16)	-15%	16
Tech	20% (1/5)	-63%	5
Culture	67% (2/3)	+90%	3
Crypto	100% (3/3)	+105%	3
Business	67% (2/3)	+45%	3
Science	100% (1/1)	+42%	1
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+28%	1
Economy	100% (1/1)	+75%	1

Other110 bets
Hit rate
49% (54/110)
ROI
+15%
Politics16 bets
Hit rate
56% (9/16)
ROI
-15%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-63%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+90%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+105%
Business3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+45%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+42%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+28%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+75%

Track record

52% hit · 74/143

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	No	$76	38.0¢	Lost
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?	No	$42	42.0¢	Lost
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 14, 2026?	No	$25	84.0¢	Lost
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 15 be greater than 2,300,000?	Yes	$1	92.0¢	Won
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30?	No	$48	62.3¢	Won
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?	No	$44	66.0¢	Won
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$1	5.3¢	Lost
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 25 be between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000?	Yes	$3	69.0¢	Lost
Will DoorDash report between 825 million and 850 million total orders in Q4 2025?	Yes	$1	4.7¢	Lost
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 10 be between 1,600,000 and 1,800,000?	Yes	$1	72.0¢	Lost
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)	Yes	$9	87.0¢	Lost
Will "Man Vs Baby" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)	Yes	$20	17.6¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on February 24?	Yes	$2	27.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	$170	77.0¢	Won
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?	Yes	$5	75.0¢	Won
Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with urine?	Yes	$6	25.0¢	Lost
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28?	No	$7	75.0¢	Lost
Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with bacon grease?	Yes	$1	5.4¢	Lost
Will Ryanair say "Elon" or "Musk" during earnings call?	No	$2	45.0¢	Lost
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?	Yes	$2	82.0¢	Won
Will "Man Vs Baby" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)	Yes	$8	7.7¢	Won
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?	No	$4	81.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$22	62.4¢	Won
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026	Yes	$4	74.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$5	45.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$20	78.0¢	Won
Avatar 4 greenlit by March 31?	Yes	$1	55.0¢	Lost
Named storm forms before hurricane season?	No	$7	70.5¢	Won
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	$5	45.0¢	Lost
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)	Yes	$2	2.8¢	Lost
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 million?	No	$2	37.1¢	Lost
John Daghita arrested by March 31?	Yes	$1	66.0¢	Won
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$55	61.7¢	Won
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?	Yes	$37	89.3¢	Won
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 13 be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000?	Yes	$5	44.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	60.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	$10	36.5¢	Lost
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	$5	57.0¢	Won
Will DoorDash report between 850 million and 875 million total orders in Q4 2025?	Yes	$4	19.5¢	Lost
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 12 be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000?	Yes	$10	76.0¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	$16	1.4¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	No	$1	64.0¢	Lost
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	Yes	$1	37.0¢	Won
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor	Demoor	$2	12.0¢	Won
The Bondi Parlay (Feb 13)	No	$6	55.0¢	Won
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?	No	$50	58.9¢	Won
Will DoorDash report 900 million or more total orders in Q4 2025?	Yes	$59	45.4¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$40	59.0¢	Lost

Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?Lost
No$76 @ 38.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?Lost
No$42 @ 42.0¢
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 14, 2026? Lost
No$25 @ 84.0¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 15 be greater than 2,300,000?Won
Yes$1 @ 92.0¢
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30?Won
No$48 @ 62.3¢
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?Won
No$44 @ 66.0¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.3¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 25 be between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000?Lost
Yes$3 @ 69.0¢
Will DoorDash report between 825 million and 850 million total orders in Q4 2025?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.7¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 10 be between 1,600,000 and 1,800,000?Lost
Yes$1 @ 72.0¢
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)Lost
Yes$9 @ 87.0¢
Will "Man Vs Baby" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)Lost
Yes$20 @ 17.6¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on February 24?Lost
Yes$2 @ 27.0¢
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$170 @ 77.0¢
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?Won
Yes$5 @ 75.0¢
Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with urine?Lost
Yes$6 @ 25.0¢
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28?Lost
No$7 @ 75.0¢
Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with bacon grease?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.4¢
Will Ryanair say "Elon" or "Musk" during earnings call?Lost
No$2 @ 45.0¢
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101?Won
Yes$2 @ 82.0¢
Will "Man Vs Baby" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)Won
Yes$8 @ 7.7¢
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?Won
No$4 @ 81.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$22 @ 62.4¢
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026Lost
Yes$4 @ 74.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 45.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$20 @ 78.0¢
Avatar 4 greenlit by March 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 55.0¢
Named storm forms before hurricane season?Won
No$7 @ 70.5¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 45.0¢
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.8¢
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 million?Lost
No$2 @ 37.1¢
John Daghita arrested by March 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 66.0¢
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$55 @ 61.7¢
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?Won
Yes$37 @ 89.3¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 13 be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000?Lost
Yes$5 @ 44.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1 @ 60.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 36.5¢
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?Won
No$5 @ 57.0¢
Will DoorDash report between 850 million and 875 million total orders in Q4 2025?Lost
Yes$4 @ 19.5¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 12 be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000?Won
Yes$10 @ 76.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
No$16 @ 1.4¢
Will Donald Trump be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?Lost
No$1 @ 64.0¢
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?Won
Yes$1 @ 37.0¢
Andrew Tate vs. Chase DemoorWon
Demoor$2 @ 12.0¢
The Bondi Parlay (Feb 13)Won
No$6 @ 55.0¢
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?Won
No$50 @ 58.9¢
Will DoorDash report 900 million or more total orders in Q4 2025?Won
Yes$59 @ 45.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$40 @ 59.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Tech	No	$76	38.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$52	4.9¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?	Tech	No	$42	42.0¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$41	52.6¢
ChatGPT Outage by February 28?	—	No	$40	80.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$40	59.0¢
Epstein storage units raided in 2026?	Politics	No	$35	70.3¢
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 14, 2026?	—	No	$25	84.0¢
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	—	No	$20	82.0¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$20	23.0¢
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	Science	No	$16	65.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	—	No	$16	1.4¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$15	58.5¢
AWS service disrupted by March 31?	—	No	$13	72.6¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 14 be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000?	—	Yes	$10	89.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$10	36.5¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	No	$10	54.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Politics	No	$10	54.0¢
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Friday?	—	Yes	$10	28.0¢
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.75% and 4.49%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$9	32.6¢
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)	—	Yes	$9	87.0¢
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	Tech	No	$8	76.0¢
Named storm forms before hurricane season?	Science	No	$7	70.5¢
Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with urine?	—	Yes	$6	25.0¢
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?	Politics	No	$5	49.0¢
Cerebras IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$5	22.0¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$5	45.0¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 13 be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000?	—	Yes	$5	44.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$5	35.0¢
Netanyahu out by March 31?	Politics	Yes	$5	7.5¢

Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?Tech
No$76 @ 38.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Politics
No$52 @ 4.9¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 12, 2026?Tech
No$42 @ 42.0¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Business
No$41 @ 52.6¢
ChatGPT Outage by February 28?—
No$40 @ 80.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$40 @ 59.0¢
Epstein storage units raided in 2026?Politics
No$35 @ 70.3¢
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 14, 2026? —
No$25 @ 84.0¢
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?—
No$20 @ 82.0¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$20 @ 23.0¢
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?Science
No$16 @ 65.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?—
No$16 @ 1.4¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?Business
No$15 @ 58.5¢
AWS service disrupted by March 31?—
No$13 @ 72.6¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 14 be between 2,400,000 and 2,600,000?—
Yes$10 @ 89.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$10 @ 36.5¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
No$10 @ 54.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Politics
No$10 @ 54.0¢
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Friday?—
Yes$10 @ 28.0¢
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.75% and 4.49%?Geopolitics
Yes$9 @ 32.6¢
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)—
Yes$9 @ 87.0¢
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?Tech
No$8 @ 76.0¢
Named storm forms before hurricane season?Science
No$7 @ 70.5¢
Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with urine?—
Yes$6 @ 25.0¢
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?Politics
No$5 @ 49.0¢
Cerebras IPO before 2027?Business
No$5 @ 22.0¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?Tech
No$5 @ 45.0¢
Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 13 be between 2,600,000 and 2,800,000?—
Yes$5 @ 44.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$5 @ 35.0¢
Netanyahu out by March 31?Politics
Yes$5 @ 7.5¢