← Smart money
0x4e09…d784
SharpEdge
-13.9pp
ROI
+11%
Win rate
34% @ 48.1¢
Brier
0.159
Resolved
269
Avg size
$162
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 60% (3/5) | -51% | 5 |
| Politics | 50% (2/4) | -7% | 4 |
| Other | 25% (1/4) | +14% | 4 |
| Crypto | 33% (1/3) | +42% | 3 |
| Tech | 100% (1/1) | +14% | 1 |
- Sports5 bets
- Hit rate
- 60% (3/5)
- ROI
- -51%
- Politics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- -7%
- Other4 bets
- Hit rate
- 25% (1/4)
- ROI
- +14%
- Crypto3 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (1/3)
- ROI
- +42%
- Tech1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +14%
Track record
47% hit · 8/17- Yes$233 @ 76.8¢
- Yes$1.8k @ 52.4¢
- No$16.0k @ 51.4¢
- Yes$2.1k @ 15.1¢
- No$133 @ 47.4¢
- Yes$352 @ 88.0¢
- Yes$119 @ 59.0¢
- No$500 @ 73.0¢
- Yes$10.9k @ 81.2¢
- Thunder$35 @ 49.0¢
- No$3.8k @ 45.9¢
- No$1.1k @ 89.9¢
- No$109 @ 72.0¢
- Yes$355 @ 77.5¢
- Yes$384 @ 66.0¢
- No$265 @ 49.5¢
- Yes$246 @ 33.1¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President by September 30? | — | No | $36.2k | 98.4¢ |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $12.6k | 93.0¢ |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | — | Yes | $4.4k | 85.4¢ |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | — | No | $2.0k | 69.7¢ |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Politics | Yes | $1.3k | 41.8¢ |
| Will Iran target Oman by September 15, 2026? | — | No | $917 | 94.7¢ |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | Politics | Yes | $680 | 18.9¢ |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? | Geopolitics | No | $368 | 92.0¢ |
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Sports | No | $311 | 61.9¢ |
| Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | Sports | No | $219 | 91.1¢ |
| Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Sports | Yes | $116 | 29.0¢ |
| Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Sports | Yes | $37 | 6.2¢ |
| Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $16 | 73.0¢ |
- No$36.2k @ 98.4¢
- No$12.6k @ 93.0¢
- Yes$4.4k @ 85.4¢
- No$2.0k @ 69.7¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 41.8¢
- No$917 @ 94.7¢
- Yes$680 @ 18.9¢
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?GeopoliticsNo$368 @ 92.0¢
- No$311 @ 61.9¢
- No$219 @ 91.1¢
- Yes$116 @ 29.0¢
- Yes$37 @ 6.2¢
- No$16 @ 73.0¢