0x4db1…e2ab

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4db156b8686ee1fff64471c9e83f87673712e2ab
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.7pp

ROI

+22%

Win rate

66% @ 52.3¢

Brier

0.107

Resolved

100

Avg size

$150

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	77% (10/13)	+22%	13
Politics	83% (5/6)	+35%	6
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+22%	1

Other13 bets
Hit rate
77% (10/13)
ROI
+22%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
83% (5/6)
ROI
+35%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+22%

Track record

76% hit · 16/21

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$606	20.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$2.4k	71.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	No	$757	81.9¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$101	26.0¢	Won
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	$100	86.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	$300	75.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$31	1.6¢	Lost
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	Yes	$692	75.2¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$313	62.6¢	Won
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day?	Down	$747	7.6¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?	Yes	$1.3k	49.8¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$172	52.2¢	Won
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?	Yes	$215	20.2¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?	Down	$564	40.6¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$1.5k	65.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	Yes	$99	45.0¢	Won
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$711	67.0¢	Won
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	No	$1.7k	85.2¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?	No	$488	85.7¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?	No	$200	80.0¢	Won
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in February?	Yes	$2.0k	83.6¢	Won

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$606 @ 20.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 71.0¢
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Won
No$757 @ 81.9¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$101 @ 26.0¢
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 86.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?Won
Yes$300 @ 75.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Lost
No$31 @ 1.6¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Won
Yes$692 @ 75.2¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$313 @ 62.6¢
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day?Lost
Down$747 @ 7.6¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 49.8¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$172 @ 52.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$215 @ 20.2¢
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?Lost
Down$564 @ 40.6¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$1.5k @ 65.0¢
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?Won
Yes$99 @ 45.0¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$711 @ 67.0¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?Won
No$1.7k @ 85.2¢
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?Won
No$488 @ 85.7¢
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?Won
No$200 @ 80.0¢
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in February?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 83.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.7k	53.6¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$605	92.8¢

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2.7k @ 53.6¢
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Politics
No$605 @ 92.8¢