0x4d92…52d1

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4d92db4bf1b5b5074390318294c09510d85452d1
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+19.7pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

74% @ 54.0¢

Brier

0.158

Resolved

Avg size

$18

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	58% (15/26)	+4%	26
Sports	67% (4/6)	-28%	6
Crypto	50% (1/2)	-21%	2

Other26 bets
Hit rate
58% (15/26)
ROI
+4%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
-28%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-21%

Track record

59% hit · 20/34

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
LoL: FALKE Esports vs Kawaii Kiwis (BO5) - LES Promotion Playoffs	FALKE Esports	$538	86.2¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 25?	Yes	$80	5.8¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?	Yes	$190	88.9¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?	No	$14	87.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?	Yes	$5	34.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again by January 15?	Yes	$10	81.0¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?	Yes	$29	67.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech?	Yes	$5	89.0¢	Won
Bitcoin above $105,000 on January 31?	Yes	$15	38.4¢	Won
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?	No	$1	78.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" during Super Bowl pregame interview?	No	$5	45.0¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 24-31?	Yes	$3	4.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs ALKA (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #2 Playoffs	ALKA	$147	73.1¢	Won
Bitcoin all time high by January 31?	Yes	$17	41.4¢	Won
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech?	Yes	$3	73.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?	No	$6	87.6¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "Trans" during Super Bowl pregame interview?	No	$14	84.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025?	Yes	$2	18.0¢	Lost
Will Norway win on 2026-09-24?	Yes	$192	76.0¢	Won
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14?	Yes	$33	38.2¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 24-31?	Yes	$13	34.4¢	Won
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025?	Yes	$43	38.1¢	Lost
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy by May 31?	No	$9	89.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025?	Yes	$21	20.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024?	Yes	$13	0.7¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$26	37.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs ALKA - Map 2 Winner	ALKA	$28	48.6¢	Won
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?	Yes	$5	15.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31?	Yes	$18	25.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #2 Playoffs	Bounty Hunters Esports	$8	11.9¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #2 Playoffs	Yawara Esports	$322	86.0¢	Won
Bitcoin above $103,000 on January 24?	Yes	$8	56.9¢	Won
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?	No	$9	75.0¢	Won
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?	Yes	$14	44.5¢	Lost

LoL: FALKE Esports vs Kawaii Kiwis (BO5) - LES Promotion PlayoffsLost
FALKE Esports$538 @ 86.2¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 25?Lost
Yes$80 @ 5.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?Won
Yes$190 @ 88.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?Won
No$14 @ 87.0¢
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?Lost
Yes$5 @ 34.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again by January 15?Won
Yes$10 @ 81.0¢
Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?Won
Yes$29 @ 67.3¢
Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech?Won
Yes$5 @ 89.0¢
Bitcoin above $105,000 on January 31?Won
Yes$15 @ 38.4¢
Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?Won
No$1 @ 78.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "Gaza" during Super Bowl pregame interview?Won
No$5 @ 45.0¢
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 24-31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 4.0¢
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs ALKA (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #2 PlayoffsWon
ALKA$147 @ 73.1¢
Bitcoin all time high by January 31?Won
Yes$17 @ 41.4¢
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? Lost
Yes$3 @ 73.0¢
Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?Won
No$6 @ 87.6¢
Will Donald Trump say "Trans" during Super Bowl pregame interview?Won
No$14 @ 84.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025?Lost
Yes$2 @ 18.0¢
Will Norway win on 2026-09-24?Won
Yes$192 @ 76.0¢
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 14?Won
Yes$33 @ 38.2¢
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 24-31?Won
Yes$13 @ 34.4¢
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025?Lost
Yes$43 @ 38.1¢
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy by May 31?Won
No$9 @ 89.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025?Lost
Yes$21 @ 20.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024?Lost
Yes$13 @ 0.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?Lost
No$26 @ 37.0¢
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs ALKA - Map 2 WinnerWon
ALKA$28 @ 48.6¢
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?Lost
Yes$5 @ 15.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31?Lost
Yes$18 @ 25.0¢
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #2 PlayoffsLost
Bounty Hunters Esports$8 @ 11.9¢
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #2 PlayoffsWon
Yawara Esports$322 @ 86.0¢
Bitcoin above $103,000 on January 24?Won
Yes$8 @ 56.9¢
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?Won
No$9 @ 75.0¢
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Jan 24-31?Lost
Yes$14 @ 44.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
LoL: FALKE Esports vs Kawaii Kiwis (BO5) - LES Promotion Playoffs	Sports	FALKE Esports	$538	86.2¢

LoL: FALKE Esports vs Kawaii Kiwis (BO5) - LES Promotion PlayoffsSports
FALKE Esports$538 @ 86.2¢