0x4d7c…93b2

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4d7cf7beb54672b11f25718c1381e925f51693b2
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.2pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

54% @ 46.9¢

Brier

0.167

Resolved

470

Avg size

$75

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	44% (28/63)	+6%	63
Politics	52% (17/33)	+7%	33
Sports	27% (8/30)	+28%	30
Geopolitics	25% (3/12)	+8%	12
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+48%	1

Other63 bets
Hit rate
44% (28/63)
ROI
+6%
Politics33 bets
Hit rate
52% (17/33)
ROI
+7%
Sports30 bets
Hit rate
27% (8/30)
ROI
+28%
Geopolitics12 bets
Hit rate
25% (3/12)
ROI
+8%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+48%

Track record

41% hit · 57/140

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Netanyahu say "Negotiate" or "Negotiated" or "Negotiation" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	Yes	$9	45.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 21, 2026?	No	$11	10.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 22, 2026?	No	$7	10.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	Yes	$3	6.0¢	Lost
Will Rodri join Real Madrid?	Yes	$123	63.2¢	Lost
LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 6.5	Yes	$10	58.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	No	$400	88.9¢	Won
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw?	Yes	$51	17.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$62	13.6¢	Lost
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17?	Yes	$152	49.0¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$54	47.8¢	Lost
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?	Yes	$30	6.3¢	Won
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?	Yes	$20	26.0¢	Lost
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	Yes	$814	71.6¢	Won
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	$52	30.0¢	Lost
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?	No	$153	67.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$300	39.0¢	Won
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	$98	2.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 29, 2026?	No	$16	11.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 21, 2026?	No	$15	10.7¢	Lost
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	Yes	$321	51.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	No	$5	2.6¢	Lost
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik	Jakub Mensik	$10	24.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	No	$6	3.0¢	Lost
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?	No	$62	72.6¢	Won
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Yes	$10	17.4¢	Lost
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14?	Yes	$50	55.0¢	Won
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?	Yes	$36	33.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 22, 2026?	No	$75	16.4¢	Lost
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	$1.9k	63.5¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$8	5.0¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?	No	$19	62.0¢	Lost
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	$24	21.2¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$455	27.0¢	Lost
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?	Yes	$34	49.0¢	Won
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	$6	3.9¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	$393	65.7¢	Won
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	$20	58.0¢	Won
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$203	48.5¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$196	35.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$1.3k	76.8¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$104	15.6¢	Lost
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	$1.0k	80.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$255	23.0¢	Won
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?	No	$143	47.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	No	$4	13.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	$25	7.6¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	No	$35	5.0¢	Lost
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08?	Yes	$104	65.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$620	56.4¢	Won

Will Netanyahu say "Negotiate" or "Negotiated" or "Negotiation" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?Lost
Yes$9 @ 45.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 21, 2026?Lost
No$11 @ 10.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 22, 2026?Lost
No$7 @ 10.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.0¢
Will Rodri join Real Madrid?Lost
Yes$123 @ 63.2¢
LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 6.5Won
Yes$10 @ 58.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Won
No$400 @ 88.9¢
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw?Lost
Yes$51 @ 17.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$62 @ 13.6¢
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17?Won
Yes$152 @ 49.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$54 @ 47.8¢
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?Won
Yes$30 @ 6.3¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?Lost
Yes$20 @ 26.0¢
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?Won
Yes$814 @ 71.6¢
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?Lost
No$52 @ 30.0¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
No$153 @ 67.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$300 @ 39.0¢
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?Lost
Yes$98 @ 2.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 29, 2026?Lost
No$16 @ 11.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 21, 2026?Lost
No$15 @ 10.7¢
Will Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?Lost
Yes$321 @ 51.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Lost
No$5 @ 2.6¢
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub MensikWon
Jakub Mensik$10 @ 24.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Lost
No$6 @ 3.0¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 15?Won
No$62 @ 72.6¢
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship?Lost
Yes$10 @ 17.4¢
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14?Won
Yes$50 @ 55.0¢
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?Lost
Yes$36 @ 33.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 22, 2026?Lost
No$75 @ 16.4¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Won
No$1.9k @ 63.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 5.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 17?Lost
No$19 @ 62.0¢
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?Won
Yes$24 @ 21.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$455 @ 27.0¢
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?Won
Yes$34 @ 49.0¢
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Argentina?Lost
Yes$6 @ 3.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Won
No$393 @ 65.7¢
Harry Kane: Anytime GoalscorerWon
Yes$20 @ 58.0¢
Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$203 @ 48.5¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$196 @ 35.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 76.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$104 @ 15.6¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 80.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$255 @ 23.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?Lost
No$143 @ 47.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Lost
No$4 @ 13.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Lost
Yes$25 @ 7.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Lost
No$35 @ 5.0¢
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08?Lost
Yes$104 @ 65.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$620 @ 56.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on September 30?	Economy	Yes	$153	71.6¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Culture	Yes	$55	8.0¢
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $345 Week of September 21 2026?	Business	No	$39	65.0¢
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Sports	Yes	$30	8.0¢
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$16	11.0¢
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$12	0.4¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during their summit?	Politics	Yes	$11	28.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 28, 2026?	Politics	No	$11	10.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$10	9.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 29, 2026?	Politics	No	$10	11.0¢
Will Sunderland win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Sports	Yes	$10	0.2¢
Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Sports	Yes	$10	0.2¢
Will Netanyahu say "Negotiate" or "Negotiated" or "Negotiation" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	Politics	Yes	$9	45.0¢
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$9	22.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 25, 2026?	Politics	No	$8	14.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 20, 2026?	Politics	No	$8	15.6¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$6	21.0¢
Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?	Politics	Yes	$5	18.0¢
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Politics	Yes	$5	23.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$5	25.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 23, 2026?	Politics	No	$5	12.0¢
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$5	0.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	72.6¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 24, 2026?	Politics	No	$3	5.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	63.0¢

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on September 30?Economy
Yes$153 @ 71.6¢
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Culture
Yes$55 @ 8.0¢
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $345 Week of September 21 2026?Business
No$39 @ 65.0¢
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Sports
Yes$30 @ 8.0¢
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$16 @ 11.0¢
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$12 @ 0.4¢
Will the Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during their summit?Politics
Yes$11 @ 28.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 28, 2026?Politics
No$11 @ 10.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 30, 2026?Politics
No$10 @ 9.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 29, 2026?Politics
No$10 @ 11.0¢
Will Sunderland win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Sports
Yes$10 @ 0.2¢
Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?Sports
Yes$10 @ 0.2¢
Will Netanyahu say "Negotiate" or "Negotiated" or "Negotiation" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?Politics
Yes$9 @ 45.0¢
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by December 31?Politics
Yes$9 @ 22.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 25, 2026?Politics
No$8 @ 14.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 20, 2026?Politics
No$8 @ 15.6¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Politics
Yes$6 @ 21.0¢
Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?Politics
Yes$5 @ 18.0¢
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?Politics
Yes$5 @ 23.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$5 @ 25.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 23, 2026?Politics
No$5 @ 12.0¢
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$5 @ 0.4¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 72.6¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 24, 2026?Politics
No$3 @ 5.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 63.0¢