0x4d78…4cc1

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4d787c8666bbda53c63e7ba40e3974c822e14cc1
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+14.0pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

65% @ 51.1¢

Brier

0.131

Resolved

709

Avg size

$250

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	64% (28/44)	+2%	44
Sports	48% (16/33)	+19%	33
Politics	64% (7/11)	+13%	11
Tech	100% (1/1)	+122%	1
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other44 bets
Hit rate
64% (28/44)
ROI
+2%
Sports33 bets
Hit rate
48% (16/33)
ROI
+19%
Politics11 bets
Hit rate
64% (7/11)
ROI
+13%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+122%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

58% hit · 52/90

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	Vitality	$4.8k	76.0¢	Won
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	Switzerland	$817	24.8¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FURIA (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs	Vitality	$6.7k	71.0¢	Won
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$7.1k	89.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$637	15.9¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	$131	51.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$248	31.0¢	Lost
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?	No	$4.6k	84.0¢	Won
Golden Knights vs. Ducks	Golden Knights	$51	51.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$130	65.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage	M80	$58	14.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$196	4.9¢	Lost
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	$466	9.2¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	$6	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	No	$174	87.0¢	Won
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale?	No	$4	11.0¢	Lost
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$5.4k	89.7¢	Won
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$234	5.9¢	Lost
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	Canada	$13	66.0¢	Won
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$2.0k	43.1¢	Won
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.2k	2.1¢	Lost
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$825	15.0¢	Lost
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1.7k	66.1¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$236	59.0¢	Lost
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$13.2k	20.7¢	Lost
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$821	44.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	$345	86.2¢	Lost
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advance	Portugal	$1.3k	34.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$1.1k	40.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	$408	81.7¢	Won
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$306	45.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$15	0.8¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	$657	73.0¢	Won
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$322	8.1¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	Vitality	$4.0k	83.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$780	60.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$450	45.0¢	Won
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	$5.0k	48.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$70	0.3¢	Lost
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance	Switzerland	$554	39.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	51.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$270	45.0¢	Lost
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?	No	$5	1.7¢	Lost
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	Argentina	$10.7k	45.1¢	Won
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$523	13.0¢	Won
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance	Spain	$5.0k	74.8¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	$827	60.4¢	Won
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$333	49.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs magic (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs	Vitality	$78	88.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs magic (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs	magic	$96	3.4¢	Lost

Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsWon
Vitality$4.8k @ 76.0¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceLost
Switzerland$817 @ 24.8¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FURIA (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries PlayoffsWon
Vitality$6.7k @ 71.0¢
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$7.1k @ 89.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$637 @ 15.9¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Won
No$131 @ 51.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$248 @ 31.0¢
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27?Won
No$4.6k @ 84.0¢
Golden Knights vs. DucksWon
Golden Knights$51 @ 51.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$130 @ 65.0¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group StageLost
M80$58 @ 14.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$196 @ 4.9¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24?Lost
Yes$466 @ 9.2¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?Won
No$6 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
No$174 @ 87.0¢
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale?Lost
No$4 @ 11.0¢
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$5.4k @ 89.7¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$234 @ 5.9¢
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to AdvanceWon
Canada$13 @ 66.0¢
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 43.1¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 2.1¢
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$825 @ 15.0¢
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 66.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$236 @ 59.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$13.2k @ 20.7¢
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?Won
Yes$821 @ 44.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?Lost
No$345 @ 86.2¢
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to AdvanceLost
Portugal$1.3k @ 34.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 40.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?Won
No$408 @ 81.7¢
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$306 @ 45.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$15 @ 0.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Won
Yes$657 @ 73.0¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$322 @ 8.1¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsWon
Vitality$4.0k @ 83.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$780 @ 60.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$450 @ 45.0¢
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?Won
No$5.0k @ 48.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$70 @ 0.3¢
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to AdvanceWon
Switzerland$554 @ 39.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 51.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$270 @ 45.0¢
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?Lost
No$5 @ 1.7¢
England vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$10.7k @ 45.1¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$523 @ 13.0¢
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to AdvanceWon
Spain$5.0k @ 74.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Won
Yes$827 @ 60.4¢
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$333 @ 49.0¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs magic (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries PlayoffsWon
Vitality$78 @ 88.0¢
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs magic (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries PlayoffsLost
magic$96 @ 3.4¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Vitality Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?	Sports	No	$5.5k	58.1¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	Sports	Vitality	$4.8k	76.0¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	No	$410	55.0¢

Will Vitality Win the ESL Pro League Season 24?Sports
No$5.5k @ 58.1¢
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsSports
Vitality$4.8k @ 76.0¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
No$410 @ 55.0¢