0x4d1b…1419

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other148 bets

  Hit rate

  63% (93/148)

  ROI

  +4%

• Politics29 bets

  Hit rate

  66% (19/29)

  ROI

  +9%

• Tech20 bets

  Hit rate

  55% (11/20)

  ROI

  +1%

• Geopolitics6 bets

  Hit rate

  83% (5/6)

  ROI

  +12%

• ChatGPT Outage by April 24?Won
  Yes$180 @ 62.1¢
• ChatGPT Outage by February 28, 2026?Won
  Yes$243 @ 39.0¢
• Will Jean-Philippe Mateta sign with a new club during the winter transfer window?Won
  No$165 @ 82.5¢
• Will Claude go down 9-11 times in April?Lost
  Yes$773 @ 40.9¢
• Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?Lost
  Yes$65 @ 10.4¢
• Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
  Yes$356 @ 83.4¢
• Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$40 @ 20.0¢
• Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?Won
  No$1.3k @ 89.1¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$240 @ 40.0¢
• Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
  No$370 @ 61.7¢
• Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$1.0k @ 70.4¢
• Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Won
  Yes$22 @ 89.0¢
• Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Lost
  No$46 @ 20.6¢
• Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
  Yes$384 @ 64.0¢
• Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Lost
  Yes$311 @ 33.0¢
• Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?Lost
  Yes$1.7k @ 86.5¢
• Will Broadcom say "Hyperscaler" during earnings call?Won
  Yes$27 @ 89.8¢
• Will Elon Musk be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist?Won
  No$75 @ 90.0¢
• GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?Won
  No$2.8k @ 72.7¢
• GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?Lost
  Yes$686 @ 44.3¢
• Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?Won
  Yes$347 @ 57.8¢
• Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?Won
  Yes$192 @ 48.0¢
• Will Marc Guehi sign with a new club during the winter transfer window?Lost
  No$79 @ 79.2¢
• Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Won
  Yes$734 @ 73.4¢
• Will Eventbrite (EB) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
  Yes$78 @ 13.0¢
• Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$3.1k @ 36.0¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
  No$1.2k @ 88.2¢
• Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?Won
  Yes$806 @ 80.0¢
• Xabi Alonso out as Real Madrid Manager in 2025?Won
  No$1.4k @ 77.3¢
• US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
  No$3.3k @ 74.0¢
• Will Jensen Huang be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist?Won
  No$274 @ 88.5¢
• Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2.8k @ 41.7¢
• US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
  No$1.3k @ 81.1¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
  No$858 @ 78.0¢
• Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?Lost
  No$803 @ 65.9¢
• Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?Won
  Yes$969 @ 50.0¢
• Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 16?Lost
  Yes$202 @ 16.8¢
• Will Claude go down 6-8 times in April?Won
  No$1.4k @ 86.6¢
• Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$63 @ 39.0¢
• Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1.5k @ 58.2¢
• Will Sprinklr (CXM) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
  No$12 @ 8.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
  Yes$112 @ 28.0¢
• Will Amazon run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?Lost
  No$43 @ 33.0¢
• Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?Won
  Yes$1.5k @ 81.9¢
• Arne Slot out as Liverpool Manager in 2025?Won
  No$2.0k @ 70.0¢
• ChatGPT Outage by April 15?Won
  Yes$3 @ 80.0¢
• ChatGPT Outage by April 10?Lost
  No$286 @ 55.3¢
• US government shutdown Saturday?Won
  Yes$435 @ 62.1¢
• Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
  No$162 @ 81.0¢
• Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Won
  Yes$525 @ 57.9¢

Current positions

• Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
  No$3.8k @ 97.1¢
• House favorite on November 2 wins the election?Politics
  Yes$991 @ 91.8¢
• Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in September?Tech
  No$845 @ 95.6¢
• Will Zack Polanski win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?Politics
  No$806 @ 84.5¢
• Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
  Yes$556 @ 79.4¢
• Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
  No$555 @ 85.8¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$503 @ 71.9¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$346 @ 86.5¢
• Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
  Yes$261 @ 52.2¢
• Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  No$258 @ 86.0¢
• Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?Tech
  Yes$185 @ 52.8¢
• Will Claude go down 11-13 times in September?Tech
  No$72 @ 92.5¢
• Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$64 @ 19.9¢
• Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Politics
  Yes$40 @ 10.0¢
• Astra removed from public access by September 30?Tech
  No$33 @ 92.6¢
• Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$17 @ 1.7¢
• Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$7 @ 0.7¢
• Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$4 @ 0.4¢