← Smart money
0x4d1b…1419
SharpEdge
+18.3pp
ROI
+26%
Win rate
90% @ 71.8¢
Brier
0.087
Resolved
212
Avg size
$110
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 64% (9/14) | +26% | 14 |
| Politics | 67% (4/6) | +29% | 6 |
| Tech | 33% (1/3) | +26% | 3 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (3/3) | +18% | 3 |
- Other14 bets
- Hit rate
- 64% (9/14)
- ROI
- +26%
- Politics6 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (4/6)
- ROI
- +29%
- Tech3 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (1/3)
- ROI
- +26%
- Geopolitics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (3/3)
- ROI
- +18%
Track record
65% hit · 17/26- Yes$240 @ 40.0¢
- Yes$22 @ 89.0¢
- No$46 @ 20.6¢
- No$1.6k @ 88.6¢
- No$162 @ 81.0¢
- Yes$525 @ 57.9¢
- No$3.1k @ 84.1¢
- Yes$23 @ 23.0¢
- Yes$2.7k @ 71.7¢
- Yes$345 @ 86.3¢
- No$2.4k @ 79.8¢
- Yes$11 @ 7.5¢
- No$482 @ 60.2¢
- No$445 @ 89.0¢
- Yes$2.7k @ 83.3¢
- No$179 @ 89.5¢
- Yes$2.8k @ 77.7¢
- Yes$12 @ 0.6¢
- Yes$4.9k @ 73.4¢
- Yes$25 @ 10.9¢
- No$14 @ 1.4¢
- No$62 @ 31.0¢
- Yes$136 @ 68.0¢
- No$2 @ 2.0¢
- Yes$263 @ 75.4¢
- No$162 @ 81.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | Tech | Yes | $3.9k | 93.1¢ |
| Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June? | — | No | $2.1k | 95.0¢ |
| Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? | Tech | No | $1.9k | 92.7¢ |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026? | Tech | No | $1.3k | 87.3¢ |
| Will the announcers say "Header" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match? | — | Yes | $737 | 94.8¢ |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? | Tech | No | $730 | 20.9¢ |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | Tech | Yes | $682 | 91.2¢ |
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Politics | No | $450 | 90.0¢ |
| Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? | Politics | Yes | $401 | 19.4¢ |
| Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? | — | No | $340 | 98.0¢ |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | Geopolitics | No | $327 | 36.1¢ |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $76 | 19.0¢ |
| Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? | Tech | Yes | $14 | 9.1¢ |
- Yes$3.9k @ 93.1¢
- No$2.1k @ 95.0¢
- No$1.9k @ 92.7¢
- No$1.3k @ 87.3¢
- Yes$737 @ 94.8¢
- No$730 @ 20.9¢
- Yes$682 @ 91.2¢
- No$450 @ 90.0¢
- Yes$401 @ 19.4¢
- No$340 @ 98.0¢
- Will Neymar play in the World Cup?GeopoliticsNo$327 @ 36.1¢
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?PoliticsYes$76 @ 19.0¢
- Yes$14 @ 9.1¢