0x4d0f…68e1

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4d0f7b8e761c9ea071fb3804697947277f8768e1
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+25.8pp

ROI

+379%

Win rate

47% @ 21.2¢

Brier

0.249

Resolved

100

Avg size

$54

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	57% (13/23)	+56%	23
Sports	40% (6/15)	+455%	15
Tech	25% (1/4)	-31%	4
Science	100% (1/1)	+96%	1
Politics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other23 bets
Hit rate
57% (13/23)
ROI
+56%
Sports15 bets
Hit rate
40% (6/15)
ROI
+455%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-31%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+96%
Politics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

47% hit · 21/45

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 10?	No	$10	51.0¢	Won
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026?	Yes	$9	22.1¢	Lost
Ethereum Up or Down - October 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	$28	52.4¢	Won
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	$28	51.0¢	Won
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026?	Yes	$104	26.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	$13	50.0¢	Won
Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	$13	51.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Texas?	No	$1	29.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 122 and 125 million views on day 3?	Yes	$4	30.0¢	Lost
Ethereum Up or Down - October 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	$28	51.4¢	Won
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	$23	51.0¢	Won
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	$13	51.0¢	Lost
Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	$13	54.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	$13	52.0¢	Lost
Ethereum Up or Down - October 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	$13	53.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$39	6.2¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$56	19.3¢	Lost
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner	Movistar KOI	$99	31.9¢	Won
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	$26	55.0¢	Won
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$26	12.7¢	Lost
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Gustavo Puerta: 1+ assists	Yes	$2	9.0¢	Lost
Will Matt Olson lead the MLB in doubles for the 2026 regular season?	No	$196	79.3¢	Won
La Velada del Año 6: Viruzz vs Gero Arias	Viruzz	$16	8.0¢	Lost
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner	Movistar KOI	$101	39.4¢	Won
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$74	1.6¢	Lost
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $430 in May?	Yes	$29	21.0¢	Lost
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3.1k	13.4¢	Won
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$238	71.0¢	Won
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance	Argentina	$28	55.0¢	Won
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 8?	No	$34	89.0¢	Won
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$18	17.0¢	Lost
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	No	$36	50.1¢	Lost
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2026-07-29?	Yes	$53	50.0¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?	No	$163	72.7¢	Won
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance	Brazil	$42	14.0¢	Lost
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance	Norway	$44	31.0¢	Won
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$157	24.1¢	Lost
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$56	3.6¢	Lost
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner	Movistar KOI	$51	55.0¢	Lost
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$340	67.3¢	Won
Rocket League: Gentle Mates vs Vitality (BO5) - RLCS World Championship Group D	Vitality	$133	42.7¢	Won
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs	Movistar KOI	$130	26.0¢	Lost
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Over	$22	55.0¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	No	$48	31.0¢	Lost

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on October 10?Won
No$10 @ 51.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 22.1¢
Ethereum Up or Down - October 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ETWon
Up$28 @ 52.4¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ETWon
Up$28 @ 51.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 8, 2026?Lost
Yes$104 @ 26.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ETWon
Down$13 @ 50.0¢
Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ETWon
Down$13 @ 51.0¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Texas?Lost
No$1 @ 29.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 122 and 125 million views on day 3?Lost
Yes$4 @ 30.0¢
Ethereum Up or Down - October 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ETWon
Down$28 @ 51.4¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:00PM-9:05PM ETWon
Down$23 @ 51.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ETLost
Up$13 @ 51.0¢
Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ETLost
Up$13 @ 54.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ETLost
Up$13 @ 52.0¢
Ethereum Up or Down - October 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ETLost
Up$13 @ 53.0¢
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$39 @ 6.2¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$56 @ 19.3¢
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 WinnerWon
Movistar KOI$99 @ 31.9¢
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?Won
Yes$26 @ 55.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$26 @ 12.7¢
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
Gustavo Puerta: 1+ assistsLost
Yes$2 @ 9.0¢
Will Matt Olson lead the MLB in doubles for the 2026 regular season?Won
No$196 @ 79.3¢
La Velada del Año 6: Viruzz vs Gero AriasLost
Viruzz$16 @ 8.0¢
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 WinnerWon
Movistar KOI$101 @ 39.4¢
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$74 @ 1.6¢
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $430 in May?Lost
Yes$29 @ 21.0¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$3.1k @ 13.4¢
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$238 @ 71.0¢
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$28 @ 55.0¢
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 8?Won
No$34 @ 89.0¢
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$18 @ 17.0¢
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Lost
No$36 @ 50.1¢
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2026-07-29?Won
Yes$53 @ 50.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?Won
No$163 @ 72.7¢
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to AdvanceLost
Brazil$42 @ 14.0¢
Brazil vs. Norway: Team to AdvanceWon
Norway$44 @ 31.0¢
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$157 @ 24.1¢
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$56 @ 3.6¢
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 WinnerLost
Movistar KOI$51 @ 55.0¢
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$340 @ 67.3¢
Rocket League: Gentle Mates vs Vitality (BO5) - RLCS World Championship Group DWon
Vitality$133 @ 42.7¢
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC PlayoffsLost
Movistar KOI$130 @ 26.0¢
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5Won
Over$22 @ 55.0¢
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$48 @ 31.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$153	34.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$115	46.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$72	33.0¢
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?	Sports	Yes	$8	7.4¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Tech	Yes	$4	56.0¢

Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Tech
Yes$153 @ 34.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026?Tech
Yes$115 @ 46.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?Tech
Yes$72 @ 33.0¢
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?Sports
Yes$8 @ 7.4¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech
Yes$4 @ 56.0¢