← Smart money
0x4cff…7cdb
SharpEdge
-6.8pp
ROI
+6%
Win rate
53% @ 59.8¢
Brier
0.202
Resolved
566
Avg size
$73
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 58% (52/89) | -1% | 89 |
| Other | 64% (41/64) | +8% | 64 |
| Tech | 52% (11/21) | +9% | 21 |
| Politics | 47% (7/15) | -82% | 15 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (2/2) | +35% | 2 |
| Economy | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Sports89 bets
- Hit rate
- 58% (52/89)
- ROI
- -1%
- Other64 bets
- Hit rate
- 64% (41/64)
- ROI
- +8%
- Tech21 bets
- Hit rate
- 52% (11/21)
- ROI
- +9%
- Politics15 bets
- Hit rate
- 47% (7/15)
- ROI
- -82%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +35%
- Economy1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
59% hit · 113/192- Yes$12 @ 51.0¢
- No$7 @ 52.7¢
- No$15 @ 50.0¢
- No$15 @ 71.0¢
- No$3 @ 36.0¢
- Yes$51 @ 73.2¢
- No$9 @ 90.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 21.0¢
- No$100 @ 26.6¢
- Yes$995 @ 73.6¢
- Over$53 @ 54.3¢
- Yes$20 @ 67.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 58.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 22.0¢
- Yes$14 @ 29.4¢
- Argentina$1.4k @ 75.7¢
- Switzerland$5 @ 26.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 69.0¢
- No$3 @ 13.0¢
- Yes$16 @ 59.6¢
- No$2 @ 40.0¢
- No$1 @ 84.0¢
- No$5 @ 63.4¢
- No$20 @ 56.2¢
- Yes$1 @ 27.0¢
- Over$5 @ 63.0¢
- Over$10 @ 72.5¢
- Yes$1 @ 40.0¢
- Morocco$5 @ 42.0¢
- Netherlands$10 @ 59.0¢
- Yes$25 @ 87.0¢
- No$1 @ 63.0¢
- Over$1 @ 62.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 49.0¢
- No$1 @ 13.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 66.0¢
- No$1 @ 12.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 56.0¢
- Yes$12 @ 72.3¢
- Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 68.0¢
- Yes$237 @ 55.0¢
- Yes$15 @ 70.7¢
- No$2 @ 63.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 61.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 23.0¢
- Yes$8 @ 71.0¢
- No$211 @ 87.7¢
- Yes$8 @ 49.7¢
- Yes$10 @ 83.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | Politics | No | $38 | 35.3¢ |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Politics | Yes | $32 | 47.8¢ |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Politics | No | $32 | 61.1¢ |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026? | Tech | No | $31 | 58.8¢ |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? | Tech | Yes | $21 | 32.9¢ |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | Tech | No | $11 | 75.0¢ |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? | Tech | No | $11 | 7.1¢ |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | Economy | No | $10 | 16.1¢ |
| Next Gemini Argon released by December 31, 2026? | Tech | No | $9 | 77.4¢ |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $7 | 61.0¢ |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Politics | No | $2 | 50.0¢ |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | Tech | Yes | $1 | 25.0¢ |
- No$38 @ 35.3¢
- Yes$32 @ 47.8¢
- No$32 @ 61.1¢
- No$31 @ 58.8¢
- Yes$21 @ 32.9¢
- No$11 @ 75.0¢
- No$11 @ 7.1¢
- No$10 @ 16.1¢
- No$9 @ 77.4¢
- Yes$7 @ 61.0¢
- No$2 @ 50.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 25.0¢