0x4c8e…501f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4c8ef133c39e617a60731553d6ea74f421f0501f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+19.6pp

ROI

+31%

Win rate

50% @ 30.4¢

Brier

0.256

Resolved

Avg size

$18

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Science	40% (10/25)	+4%	25
Politics	22% (4/18)	-11%	18
Sports	60% (3/5)	+56%	5
Crypto	100% (2/2)	+99%	2

Science25 bets
Hit rate
40% (10/25)
ROI
+4%
Politics18 bets
Hit rate
22% (4/18)
ROI
-11%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+56%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+99%

Track record

38% hit · 19/50

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on October 28?	Yes	$13	12.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 28?	Yes	$87	74.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on October 28?	Yes	$22	22.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 28?	Yes	$78	70.5¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	$12	10.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 26?	Yes	$72	40.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on October 26?	Yes	$108	55.5¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	$10	24.9¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	$10	24.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 25?	Yes	$100	53.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on October 25?	Yes	$70	40.9¢	Won
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?	Yes	$18	60.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 24?	Yes	$120	59.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on October 24?	Yes	$65	36.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 23?	Yes	$84	46.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 23?	Yes	$96	45.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 22?	Yes	$50	26.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on October 22?	Yes	$66	36.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 22?	Yes	$34	22.8¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 13?	Yes	$48	69.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on October 17?	Yes	$57	43.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	$51	66.2¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	$10	34.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 20?	Yes	$85	63.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on October 19?	Yes	$45	28.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on October 17?	Yes	$39	37.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on October 16?	Yes	$70	61.4¢	Lost
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	$69	76.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	$10	34.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	$3	6.9¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	Yes	$6	7.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on October 16?	Yes	$48	28.9¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	Yes	$15	73.5¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 15?	Yes	$31	35.3¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 20?	Yes	$41	32.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on October 16?	Yes	$4	3.5¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	Yes	$1	3.4¢	Lost
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	$28	37.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	Yes	$3	13.7¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	$3	3.5¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?	Yes	$4	73.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	$10	17.0¢	Lost
Will Scotland win on 2026-09-29?	Yes	$3	22.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	$8	15.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 17?	Yes	$10	9.1¢	Lost
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	$21	64.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	Yes	$10	25.0¢	Lost
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?	Yes	$39	50.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 19?	Yes	$105	63.5¢	Lost

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on October 28?Lost
Yes$13 @ 12.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 28?Lost
Yes$87 @ 74.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on October 28?Won
Yes$22 @ 22.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 28?Lost
Yes$78 @ 70.5¢
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 10.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 26?Lost
Yes$72 @ 40.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on October 26?Won
Yes$108 @ 55.5¢
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 24.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 24.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 25?Lost
Yes$100 @ 53.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on October 25?Won
Yes$70 @ 40.9¢
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-25?Lost
Yes$18 @ 60.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 24?Lost
Yes$120 @ 59.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on October 24?Won
Yes$65 @ 36.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 23?Lost
Yes$84 @ 46.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 23?Won
Yes$96 @ 45.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 22?Lost
Yes$50 @ 26.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on October 22?Won
Yes$66 @ 36.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 22?Lost
Yes$34 @ 22.8¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 13?Won
Yes$48 @ 69.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on October 17?Won
Yes$57 @ 43.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$51 @ 66.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 34.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 20?Won
Yes$85 @ 63.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on October 19?Won
Yes$45 @ 28.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on October 17?Lost
Yes$39 @ 37.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on October 16?Lost
Yes$70 @ 61.4¢
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-13?Won
Yes$69 @ 76.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 34.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?Won
Yes$6 @ 7.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on October 16?Won
Yes$48 @ 28.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?Won
Yes$15 @ 73.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 15?Won
Yes$31 @ 35.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 20?Lost
Yes$41 @ 32.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on October 16?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.5¢
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.4¢
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-10-14?Won
Yes$28 @ 37.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 13.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.5¢
Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 73.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 17.0¢
Will Scotland win on 2026-09-29?Lost
Yes$3 @ 22.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 15.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 17?Lost
Yes$10 @ 9.1¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?Lost
Yes$21 @ 64.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 25.0¢
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?Won
Yes$39 @ 50.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on October 19?Lost
Yes$105 @ 63.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 28?	Science	Yes	$87	74.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 28?	Science	Yes	$78	70.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on October 28?	Science	Yes	$22	22.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on October 28?	Science	Yes	$13	12.6¢

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on October 28?Science
Yes$87 @ 74.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 28?Science
Yes$78 @ 70.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on October 28?Science
Yes$22 @ 22.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on October 28?Science
Yes$13 @ 12.6¢