0x4c74…c5e3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4c745a12b44326d73a0cbc74ad2620fc6588c5e3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.7pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

55% @ 47.7¢

Brier

0.164

Resolved

388

Avg size

$37

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	75% (51/68)	+40%	68
Other	48% (31/65)	-3%	65
Sports	50% (6/12)	-62%	12

Politics68 bets
Hit rate
75% (51/68)
ROI
+40%
Other65 bets
Hit rate
48% (31/65)
ROI
-3%
Sports12 bets
Hit rate
50% (6/12)
ROI
-62%

Track record

61% hit · 88/145

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	$107	25.0¢	Lost
Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?	Yes	$19	30.0¢	Won
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	$906	77.7¢	Won
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	$11	3.7¢	Lost
Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?	Yes	$2	46.0¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$1	67.0¢	Won
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	Yes	$7	35.4¢	Won
Will Scott Singer be the FL-25 Republican nominee?	Yes	$20	79.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Stock Market" during Tribute to America Rally?	Yes	$20	82.0¢	Won
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$6	78.7¢	Won
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	Yes	$172	72.3¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?	Yes	$10	36.0¢	Won
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Yes	$304	70.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Beautiful" 7+ times during Tribute to America Rally?	Yes	$5	72.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	$31	37.0¢	Won
Will Charlie Hatcher be the TN-05 Republican nominee?	Yes	$341	27.4¢	Won
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	Yes	$15	48.0¢	Won
Will Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?	Yes	$50	32.0¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	$1	44.0¢	Won
Will Switzerland vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	$81	22.0¢	Lost
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	$1	34.0¢	Won
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?	Yes	$1	74.0¢	Won
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?	Yes	$1	50.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Tribute to America Rally?	Yes	$40	66.8¢	Lost
Will Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?	Yes	$2	9.0¢	Lost
Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 10–15%?	Yes	$2	48.8¢	Won
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	$178	55.0¢	Lost
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	Yes	$20	61.2¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$1	44.0¢	Won
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	$11	87.0¢	Won
Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?	Yes	$41	67.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$50	73.0¢	Won
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	Yes	$37	59.6¢	Lost
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$72	76.9¢	Won
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	25.0¢	Lost
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$1	61.0¢	Lost
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$3	73.0¢	Won
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?	Yes	$56	70.6¢	Won
Will Trump's remarks not air?	Yes	$10	3.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$50	64.0¢	Won
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	$249	69.6¢	Won
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	$703	36.3¢	Lost
Will Algeria win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	$8	7.5¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$31	31.0¢	Won
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?	Yes	$245	54.7¢	Won
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$35	2.1¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-03 House seat?	Yes	$2	74.5¢	Won
Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?	Yes	$214	77.6¢	Won
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$1	84.0¢	Won
Will Joy Powers be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?	Yes	$230	73.6¢	Won

Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?Lost
Yes$107 @ 25.0¢
Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?Won
Yes$19 @ 30.0¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?Won
Yes$906 @ 77.7¢
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?Lost
Yes$11 @ 3.7¢
Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01?Lost
Yes$2 @ 46.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$1 @ 67.0¢
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Won
Yes$7 @ 35.4¢
Will Scott Singer be the FL-25 Republican nominee?Won
Yes$20 @ 79.0¢
Will Trump say "Stock Market" during Tribute to America Rally?Won
Yes$20 @ 82.0¢
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$6 @ 78.7¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Won
Yes$172 @ 72.3¢
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?Won
Yes$10 @ 36.0¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Won
Yes$304 @ 70.0¢
Will Trump say "Beautiful" 7+ times during Tribute to America Rally?Won
Yes$5 @ 72.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$31 @ 37.0¢
Will Charlie Hatcher be the TN-05 Republican nominee?Won
Yes$341 @ 27.4¢
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?Won
Yes$15 @ 48.0¢
Will Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?Lost
Yes$50 @ 32.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseWon
Yes$1 @ 44.0¢
Will Switzerland vs. Algeria end in a draw?Lost
Yes$81 @ 22.0¢
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?Won
Yes$1 @ 34.0¢
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?Won
Yes$1 @ 74.0¢
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?Lost
Yes$1 @ 50.0¢
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Tribute to America Rally?Lost
Yes$40 @ 66.8¢
Will Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee?Lost
Yes$2 @ 9.0¢
Will Jay Feely win the AZ-01 Republican primary by 10–15%?Won
Yes$2 @ 48.8¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?Lost
Yes$178 @ 55.0¢
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?Won
Yes$20 @ 61.2¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
Yes$1 @ 44.0¢
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia PhilliesWon
Philadelphia Phillies$11 @ 87.0¢
Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?Lost
Yes$41 @ 67.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$50 @ 73.0¢
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?Lost
Yes$37 @ 59.6¢
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$72 @ 76.9¢
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$3 @ 25.0¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 61.0¢
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$3 @ 73.0¢
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Won
Yes$56 @ 70.6¢
Will Trump's remarks not air?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$50 @ 64.0¢
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?Won
Yes$249 @ 69.6¢
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?Lost
Yes$703 @ 36.3¢
Will Algeria win on 2026-07-02?Lost
Yes$8 @ 7.5¢
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$31 @ 31.0¢
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Won
Yes$245 @ 54.7¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 2.1¢
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-03 House seat?Won
Yes$2 @ 74.5¢
Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?Won
Yes$214 @ 77.6¢
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$1 @ 84.0¢
Will Joy Powers be the VA-09 Democratic nominee?Won
Yes$230 @ 73.6¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$284	11.6¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$94	78.3¢
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Politics	Yes	$70	32.0¢
Will Shevrin Jones be the FL-24 Democratic nominee?	—	Yes	$63	79.0¢
Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?	—	Yes	$49	30.0¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays	—	St. Louis Cardinals	$2	3.2¢

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$284 @ 11.6¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$94 @ 78.3¢
Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Politics
Yes$70 @ 32.0¢
Will Shevrin Jones be the FL-24 Democratic nominee?—
Yes$63 @ 79.0¢
Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?—
Yes$49 @ 30.0¢
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays—
St. Louis Cardinals$2 @ 3.2¢