0x4c4e…297b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4c4ed674fde7dc998036b3ae92445d00fcdb297b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.2pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

44% @ 32.7¢

Brier

0.143

Resolved

724

Avg size

$67

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Tech	45% (30/67)	-6%	67
Other	60% (28/47)	-2%	47
Geopolitics	39% (7/18)	+102%	18
Politics	40% (2/5)	-25%	5

Tech67 bets
Hit rate
45% (30/67)
ROI
-6%
Other47 bets
Hit rate
60% (28/47)
ROI
-2%
Geopolitics18 bets
Hit rate
39% (7/18)
ROI
+102%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-25%

Track record

49% hit · 67/137

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$7	24.4¢	Lost
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$7	28.9¢	Lost
Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$21	26.6¢	Lost
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	No	$400	72.1¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?	No	$41	34.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$112	50.6¢	Won
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	$512	88.4¢	Lost
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$51	60.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1.2k	11.7¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?	Yes	$124	72.8¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	$86	32.1¢	Lost
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	$99	65.0¢	Won
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Yes	$71	70.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$140	27.5¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$257	43.7¢	Won
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	$1.7k	68.8¢	Won
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?	No	$292	72.6¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?	Yes	$76	50.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$496	82.4¢	Won
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$324	50.3¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	$1.9k	27.9¢	Won
Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on April 10, 2026?	Yes	$1	1.1¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$2.1k	12.8¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?	No	$149	89.5¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	$165	76.5¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$8	4.0¢	Lost
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?	No	$515	88.0¢	Won
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.2k	74.2¢	Won
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$5	25.0¢	Lost
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$462	18.0¢	Won
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	No	$670	75.2¢	Won
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?	No	$738	85.0¢	Won
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$192	24.1¢	Lost
Will any other model be the best AI model on September 28, 2026?	No	$3	21.0¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	$127	80.8¢	Won
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	$40	88.0¢	Won
Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?	Yes	$0	2.7¢	Lost
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	Yes	$280	63.5¢	Lost
Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$23	6.5¢	Lost
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$722	76.1¢	Won
Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?	No	$11	35.0¢	Lost
Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?	Yes	$166	27.2¢	Won
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	No	$433	36.1¢	Won
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$49	37.0¢	Won
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$162	39.8¢	Won
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$81	8.1¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	89.8¢	Won
Will any AI model reach 1520 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$193	70.9¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?	Yes	$1.2k	84.0¢	Won

Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 24.4¢
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 28.9¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$21 @ 26.6¢
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?Won
No$400 @ 72.1¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$41 @ 34.0¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$112 @ 50.6¢
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$512 @ 88.4¢
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$51 @ 60.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 11.7¢
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?Won
Yes$124 @ 72.8¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$86 @ 32.1¢
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Won
No$99 @ 65.0¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Won
Yes$71 @ 70.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$140 @ 27.5¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$257 @ 43.7¢
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Won
No$1.7k @ 68.8¢
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?Won
No$292 @ 72.6¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?Won
Yes$76 @ 50.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$496 @ 82.4¢
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?Lost
Yes$324 @ 50.3¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
No$1.9k @ 27.9¢
Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 12.8¢
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1490 and 1500?Won
No$149 @ 89.5¢
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
No$165 @ 76.5¢
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 4.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?Won
No$515 @ 88.0¢
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 74.2¢
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
Yes$5 @ 25.0¢
Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$462 @ 18.0¢
Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Won
No$670 @ 75.2¢
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?Won
No$738 @ 85.0¢
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$192 @ 24.1¢
Will any other model be the best AI model on September 28, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 21.0¢
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?Won
Yes$127 @ 80.8¢
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Won
No$40 @ 88.0¢
Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.7¢
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$280 @ 63.5¢
Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$23 @ 6.5¢
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$722 @ 76.1¢
Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?Lost
No$11 @ 35.0¢
Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?Won
Yes$166 @ 27.2¢
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?Won
No$433 @ 36.1¢
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$49 @ 37.0¢
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$162 @ 39.8¢
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
Yes$81 @ 8.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 89.8¢
Will any AI model reach 1520 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$193 @ 70.9¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 84.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$2.8k	60.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2.6k	21.2¢
Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	49.6¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$959	41.6¢
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$719	54.8¢
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$438	64.4¢
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?	Politics	No	$322	64.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$293	58.6¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	Tech	Yes	$283	61.4¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	No	$279	77.2¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	Tech	No	$234	62.5¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Tech	No	$228	57.1¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	Tech	No	$170	68.2¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	Tech	Yes	$142	47.3¢
Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Minnesota in the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$137	61.0¢
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	Tech	Yes	$136	55.4¢
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$73	34.0¢
Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Iowa in the 2026 midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$72	21.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	Tech	No	$68	14.8¢
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$52	13.2¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$45	33.3¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,550,000 and 1,600,000?	Politics	No	$27	99.9¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be 1,600,000 or more?	Politics	No	$27	99.3¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,500,000 and 1,550,000?	Politics	No	$26	95.0¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,450,000 and 1,500,000?	Politics	No	$20	74.1¢
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$10	3.8¢
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$9	3.6¢
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$8	10.0¢
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$7	9.1¢
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$6	5.6¢

Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$2.8k @ 60.5¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$2.6k @ 21.2¢
Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 49.6¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$959 @ 41.6¢
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$719 @ 54.8¢
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$438 @ 64.4¢
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?Politics
No$322 @ 64.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$293 @ 58.6¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?Tech
Yes$283 @ 61.4¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
No$279 @ 77.2¢
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?Tech
No$234 @ 62.5¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?Tech
No$228 @ 57.1¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?Tech
No$170 @ 68.2¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Tech
Yes$142 @ 47.3¢
Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Minnesota in the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
Yes$137 @ 61.0¢
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?Tech
Yes$136 @ 55.4¢
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$73 @ 34.0¢
Will Democrats win exactly 2 House seats in Iowa in the 2026 midterm elections?Politics
Yes$72 @ 21.0¢
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Tech
No$68 @ 14.8¢
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$52 @ 13.2¢
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?Politics
Yes$45 @ 33.3¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,550,000 and 1,600,000?Politics
No$27 @ 99.9¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be 1,600,000 or more?Politics
No$27 @ 99.3¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,500,000 and 1,550,000?Politics
No$26 @ 95.0¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Iowa be between 1,450,000 and 1,500,000?Politics
No$20 @ 74.1¢
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$10 @ 3.8¢
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$9 @ 3.6¢
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$8 @ 10.0¢
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$7 @ 9.1¢
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$6 @ 5.6¢