0x4c2d…f8ae

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4c2da46b289847e3e8377c6f4ca3d520c620f8ae
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+5.5pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

41% @ 35.6¢

Brier

0.164

Resolved

2323

Avg size

$242

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	40% (66/166)	+12%	166
Politics	37% (33/90)	-13%	90
Geopolitics	43% (13/30)	-7%	30
Tech	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other166 bets
Hit rate
40% (66/166)
ROI
+12%
Politics90 bets
Hit rate
37% (33/90)
ROI
-13%
Geopolitics30 bets
Hit rate
43% (13/30)
ROI
-7%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

39% hit · 112/288

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$2	33.0¢	Lost
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?	No	$29	14.8¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	No	$899	78.8¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$833	42.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$3.9k	52.5¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$1.5k	74.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	$25	15.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$108	2.9¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$3.2k	3.2¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	$877	29.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	No	$27	3.4¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$61	1.9¢	Lost
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 13, 2026?	Yes	$19	0.6¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$372	23.2¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	$70	22.5¢	Lost
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$324	17.5¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$200	53.3¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$220	88.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$5.9k	58.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	18.8¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$113	2.5¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?	Yes	$160	6.4¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$72	56.9¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	Yes	$249	5.6¢	Lost
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?	No	$36	16.7¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$260	3.7¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?	Yes	$1	88.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June?	No	$741	37.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$644	33.6¢	Lost
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$199	14.8¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?	No	$252	66.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$1.6k	38.3¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$5.9k	78.6¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$3.5k	31.8¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$93	82.9¢	Won
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?	No	$65	19.8¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	No	$1.2k	3.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?	Yes	$17	14.0¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	$1.6k	71.7¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	$466	9.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	No	$18.7k	81.8¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	$2.6k	16.1¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	No	$202	4.7¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$325	65.0¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$1.5k	74.0¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	$393	17.4¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	Yes	$174	61.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$10.5k	77.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	No	$253	9.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$188	31.6¢	Won

Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 33.0¢
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?Won
No$29 @ 14.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Won
No$899 @ 78.8¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$833 @ 42.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$3.9k @ 52.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$1.5k @ 74.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Lost
Yes$25 @ 15.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$108 @ 2.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$3.2k @ 3.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Won
Yes$877 @ 29.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$27 @ 3.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$61 @ 1.9¢
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$19 @ 0.6¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$372 @ 23.2¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?Lost
Yes$70 @ 22.5¢
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$324 @ 17.5¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$200 @ 53.3¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$220 @ 88.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$5.9k @ 58.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.9k @ 18.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$113 @ 2.5¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?Lost
Yes$160 @ 6.4¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$72 @ 56.9¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Lost
Yes$249 @ 5.6¢
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026?Lost
No$36 @ 16.7¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$260 @ 3.7¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?Won
Yes$1 @ 88.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June?Lost
No$741 @ 37.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$644 @ 33.6¢
Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026?Won
Yes$199 @ 14.8¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Won
No$252 @ 66.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$1.6k @ 38.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$5.9k @ 78.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$3.5k @ 31.8¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?Won
Yes$93 @ 82.9¢
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 26, 2026?Lost
No$65 @ 19.8¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
No$1.2k @ 3.0¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?Lost
Yes$17 @ 14.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Won
No$1.6k @ 71.7¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Lost
Yes$466 @ 9.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Won
No$18.7k @ 81.8¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Lost
Yes$2.6k @ 16.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Lost
No$202 @ 4.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$325 @ 65.0¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$1.5k @ 74.0¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Lost
Yes$393 @ 17.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Won
Yes$174 @ 61.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$10.5k @ 77.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Lost
No$253 @ 9.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$188 @ 31.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$491	14.0¢
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$126	0.4¢
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$59	0.2¢
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$33	0.3¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$22	15.9¢
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$16	0.2¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$15	2.2¢
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$15	0.2¢

Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?Politics
Yes$491 @ 14.0¢
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$126 @ 0.4¢
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$59 @ 0.2¢
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$33 @ 0.3¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?Politics
Yes$22 @ 15.9¢
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$16 @ 0.2¢
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$15 @ 2.2¢
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$15 @ 0.2¢