0x4be7…8e91

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4be79eef6863ea326ee1185103ccb2d2c5668e91
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.8pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

41% @ 37.2¢

Brier

0.145

Resolved

3015

Avg size

$34

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (211/425)	-3%	425
Sports	43% (38/89)	+26%	89
Politics	31% (8/26)	+38%	26
Crypto	40% (2/5)	-2%	5
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+1900%	1

Other425 bets
Hit rate
50% (211/425)
ROI
-3%
Sports89 bets
Hit rate
43% (38/89)
ROI
+26%
Politics26 bets
Hit rate
31% (8/26)
ROI
+38%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-2%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+1900%

Track record

48% hit · 260/547

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will France win on 2026-09-25?	No	$115	28.0¢	Lost
Will Hungary vs. Ukraine end in a draw?	Yes	$90	31.0¢	Lost
Will Sweden vs. Romania end in a draw?	No	$318	79.5¢	Won
Will Montenegro win on 2026-09-25?	Yes	$20	58.0¢	Won
Will Cyprus win on 2026-09-25?	Yes	$69	17.0¢	Lost
Türkiye vs. France: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$108	60.0¢	Lost
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17?	Yes	$56	50.0¢	Lost
Knicks vs. Warriors	Warriors	$102	69.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?	No	$26	12.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?	Yes	$169	84.5¢	Won
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	No	$1.0k	75.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 7, 2026?	No	$20	6.7¢	Lost
49ers vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	$123	72.0¢	Won
FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 3.5	Over	$76	42.0¢	Won
Will Burnley FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw?	No	$270	73.0¢	Won
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08?	No	$40	4.0¢	Lost
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?	Yes	$150	22.0¢	Won
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	No	$100	85.0¢	Won
Hornets vs. Knicks	Hornets	$11	69.0¢	Won
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-01?	No	$38	14.0¢	Lost
ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. FC Bayern Munchen	ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne	$10	37.1¢	Won
ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. FC Bayern Munchen	FC Bayern Munchen	$13	66.0¢	Lost
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30?	Yes	$46	26.8¢	Won
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-01-18?	No	$272	37.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump's tie be blue on May 8, 2026?	No	$60	60.0¢	Won
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Under	$20	40.0¢	Won
Will Andorra vs. Malta end in a draw?	Yes	$91	35.6¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	No	$148	41.0¢	Lost
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16?	No	$171	29.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$301	8.6¢	Lost
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	Yes	$32	32.0¢	Lost
Wizards vs. Nets	Wizards	$118	34.0¢	Lost
Will Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?	No	$57	75.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$72	36.0¢	Lost
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw?	No	$615	69.0¢	Won
Canada vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5	Under	$46	52.0¢	Lost
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	$513	25.6¢	Lost
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?	No	$178	75.2¢	Won
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?	Yes	$55	23.7¢	Lost
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	No	$302	80.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026?	No	$20	10.0¢	Lost
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?	Yes	$10	5.0¢	Lost
Will Galatasaray win the Süper Lig?	No	$58	4.8¢	Lost
Will Galatasaray win the Süper Lig?	Yes	$494	76.7¢	Won
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	No	$290	72.0¢	Won
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-02-20?	No	$188	59.0¢	Lost
Will Clermont Foot 63 win on 2026-08-21?	No	$296	62.0¢	Won
Eric Swalwell arrested by May 31?	Yes	$26	7.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Drone" during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	$8	40.0¢	Lost

Will France win on 2026-09-25?Lost
No$115 @ 28.0¢
Will Hungary vs. Ukraine end in a draw?Lost
Yes$90 @ 31.0¢
Will Sweden vs. Romania end in a draw?Won
No$318 @ 79.5¢
Will Montenegro win on 2026-09-25?Won
Yes$20 @ 58.0¢
Will Cyprus win on 2026-09-25?Lost
Yes$69 @ 17.0¢
Türkiye vs. France: Both Teams to ScoreLost
Yes$108 @ 60.0¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17?Lost
Yes$56 @ 50.0¢
Knicks vs. WarriorsWon
Warriors$102 @ 69.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?Lost
No$26 @ 12.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 23, 2026?Won
Yes$169 @ 84.5¢
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsWon
No$1.0k @ 75.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 7, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 6.7¢
49ers vs. SeahawksWon
Seahawks$123 @ 72.0¢
FC Thun vs. KKS Lech Poznań: O/U 3.5Won
Over$76 @ 42.0¢
Will Burnley FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw?Won
No$270 @ 73.0¢
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08?Lost
No$40 @ 4.0¢
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?Won
Yes$150 @ 22.0¢
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?Won
No$100 @ 85.0¢
Hornets vs. KnicksWon
Hornets$11 @ 69.0¢
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-01?Lost
No$38 @ 14.0¢
ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. FC Bayern MunchenWon
ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne$10 @ 37.1¢
ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. FC Bayern MunchenLost
FC Bayern Munchen$13 @ 66.0¢
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30?Won
Yes$46 @ 26.8¢
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-01-18?Lost
No$272 @ 37.0¢
Will Donald Trump's tie be blue on May 8, 2026?Won
No$60 @ 60.0¢
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5Won
Under$20 @ 40.0¢
Will Andorra vs. Malta end in a draw?Lost
Yes$91 @ 35.6¢
Will France win on 2026-06-26?Lost
No$148 @ 41.0¢
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16?Won
No$171 @ 29.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$301 @ 8.6¢
Weed rescheduled by June 30?Lost
Yes$32 @ 32.0¢
Wizards vs. NetsLost
Wizards$118 @ 34.0¢
Will Fulham FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?Won
No$57 @ 75.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$72 @ 36.0¢
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw?Won
No$615 @ 69.0¢
Canada vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5Lost
Under$46 @ 52.0¢
Will Portugal vs. Croatia end in a draw?Lost
Yes$513 @ 25.6¢
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?Won
No$178 @ 75.2¢
Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?Lost
Yes$55 @ 23.7¢
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?Lost
No$302 @ 80.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 10.0¢
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?Lost
Yes$10 @ 5.0¢
Will Galatasaray win the Süper Lig?Lost
No$58 @ 4.8¢
Will Galatasaray win the Süper Lig?Won
Yes$494 @ 76.7¢
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?Won
No$290 @ 72.0¢
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-02-20?Lost
No$188 @ 59.0¢
Will Clermont Foot 63 win on 2026-08-21?Won
No$296 @ 62.0¢
Eric Swalwell arrested by May 31?Lost
Yes$26 @ 7.6¢
Will Trump say "Drone" during WHCA Dinner events?Lost
Yes$8 @ 40.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.0k	91.6¢
Will Beşiktaş win the 2026-27 Süper Lig?	Sports	No	$464	80.0¢
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	Politics	No	$253	92.2¢
Will Amedspor win the 2026-27 Süper Lig?	Sports	No	$190	95.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$184	92.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$184	92.0¢
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$149	89.7¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$102	51.0¢
Will Slovenia vs. Scotland end in a draw?	Sports	No	$102	70.0¢
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Culture	No	$98	98.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$96	48.0¢
Will Fenerbahçe win the 2026-27 Süper Lig?	Sports	No	$86	55.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 26, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$82	82.0¢
Will Armenia win Junior Eurovision 2026?	Culture	No	$73	88.0¢
Will France win Junior Eurovision 2026?	Culture	No	$71	79.8¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Sports	Yes	$70	14.0¢
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Crypto	No	$66	45.0¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?	Tech	No	$57	81.0¢
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Sports	Yes	$50	5.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 25, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$50	83.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 24, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$49	82.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$44	88.0¢
Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?	Politics	No	$36	90.0¢
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	No	$31	54.5¢
Weed rescheduled by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$25	63.5¢
Solana all time high by September 30, 2026?	Crypto	No	$18	95.7¢
Will Turkey rejoin the F-35 program by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$18	90.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 23, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$17	86.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$17	86.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 29, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$17	86.0¢

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.0k @ 91.6¢
Will Beşiktaş win the 2026-27 Süper Lig?Sports
No$464 @ 80.0¢
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?Politics
No$253 @ 92.2¢
Will Amedspor win the 2026-27 Süper Lig?Sports
No$190 @ 95.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$184 @ 92.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$184 @ 92.0¢
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$149 @ 89.7¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
No$102 @ 51.0¢
Will Slovenia vs. Scotland end in a draw?Sports
No$102 @ 70.0¢
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?Culture
No$98 @ 98.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$96 @ 48.0¢
Will Fenerbahçe win the 2026-27 Süper Lig?Sports
No$86 @ 55.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 26, 2026?Politics
Yes$82 @ 82.0¢
Will Armenia win Junior Eurovision 2026?Culture
No$73 @ 88.0¢
Will France win Junior Eurovision 2026?Culture
No$71 @ 79.8¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Sports
Yes$70 @ 14.0¢
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?Crypto
No$66 @ 45.0¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Tech
No$57 @ 81.0¢
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Sports
Yes$50 @ 5.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 25, 2026?Politics
Yes$50 @ 83.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 24, 2026?Politics
Yes$49 @ 82.0¢
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$44 @ 88.0¢
Will Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?Politics
No$36 @ 90.0¢
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
No$31 @ 54.5¢
Weed rescheduled by December 31?Politics
Yes$25 @ 63.5¢
Solana all time high by September 30, 2026?Crypto
No$18 @ 95.7¢
Will Turkey rejoin the F-35 program by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$18 @ 90.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 23, 2026?Politics
Yes$17 @ 86.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$17 @ 86.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 29, 2026?Politics
Yes$17 @ 86.0¢