0x4bc1…80c1

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4bc1570472463b5a2c1be9e2ecca0a55598580c1
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+14.5pp

ROI

+48%

Win rate

40% @ 25.1¢

Brier

0.216

Resolved

106

Avg size

$52

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	15% (5/34)	-76%	34
Sports	26% (7/27)	-95%	27
Economy	100% (2/2)	+335%	2
Politics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other34 bets
Hit rate
15% (5/34)
ROI
-76%
Sports27 bets
Hit rate
26% (7/27)
ROI
-95%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+335%
Politics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

22% hit · 14/65

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	$23	14.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	$5	4.1¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	$13	6.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	$10	5.4¢	Lost
Spread: Argentina (-3.5)	Argentina	$14	7.7¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	$27	5.8¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	$6	0.6¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	$5	75.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	$9	0.9¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	$4	19.6¢	Lost
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	$5	23.0¢	Lost
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Spain	$14	10.0¢	Lost
Will Salzburg win the FIFA Club World Cup?	Yes	$5	0.8¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$507	20.9¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$960	19.1¢	Lost
Pacers vs. Thunder	Pacers	$10	33.5¢	Lost
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	No	$2	29.0¢	Lost
Will Bayern Munich win the FIFA Club World Cup?	Yes	$119	13.9¢	Lost
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$45	6.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$771	0.4¢	Lost
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$42	1.6¢	Lost
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$10	44.0¢	Lost
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$2	46.0¢	Won
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$349	9.4¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5	Over	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Won
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$4	0.7¢	Lost
Will Fluminense win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup?	Yes	$33	34.0¢	Lost
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1.3k	20.4¢	Won
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	No	$528	33.5¢	Won
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$2	21.0¢	Lost
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Yes	$12	17.2¢	Lost
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$2	18.0¢	Lost
Will England win on 2026-07-01?	No	$9	24.0¢	Lost
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup?	Yes	$60	2.8¢	Lost
Will Real Madrid win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup?	No	$25	57.3¢	Lost
Will "I'm Still Here" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?	Yes	$17	1.4¢	Lost
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$96	12.7¢	Lost
Will Boca Juniors win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup?	Yes	$5	8.9¢	Lost
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup?	Yes	$10	3.2¢	Lost
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$18	52.8¢	Lost
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)	Argentina	$5	28.0¢	Won
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Yes	$1	25.0¢	Won
Will Man City win the FIFA Club World Cup?	Yes	$20	17.0¢	Lost
Will Botafogo win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup?	Yes	$30	46.3¢	Lost
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup?	Yes	$8	4.2¢	Lost

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ETLost
Up$23 @ 14.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ETLost
Down$5 @ 4.1¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ETLost
Down$13 @ 6.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ETLost
Up$1 @ 0.1¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ETLost
Up$10 @ 5.4¢
Spread: Argentina (-3.5)Lost
Argentina$14 @ 7.7¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ETLost
Up$27 @ 5.8¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ETLost
Down$2 @ 1.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ETLost
Down$1 @ 0.1¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ETLost
Up$6 @ 0.6¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ETLost
Up$5 @ 75.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ETLost
Up$9 @ 0.9¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ETLost
Up$4 @ 19.6¢
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?Lost
Yes$5 @ 23.0¢
Spread: Spain (-3.5)Lost
Spain$14 @ 10.0¢
Will Salzburg win the FIFA Club World Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.8¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$507 @ 20.9¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$960 @ 19.1¢
Pacers vs. ThunderLost
Pacers$10 @ 33.5¢
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Lost
No$2 @ 29.0¢
Will Bayern Munich win the FIFA Club World Cup?Lost
Yes$119 @ 13.9¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$45 @ 6.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$771 @ 0.4¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$42 @ 1.6¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?Lost
Yes$10 @ 44.0¢
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to ScoreWon
Yes$2 @ 46.0¢
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$349 @ 9.4¢
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 6.5Lost
Over$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?Won
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.7¢
Will Fluminense win Group F at the FIFA Club World Cup?Lost
Yes$33 @ 34.0¢
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 20.4¢
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?Won
No$528 @ 33.5¢
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?Lost
Yes$2 @ 21.0¢
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?Lost
Yes$12 @ 17.2¢
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?Lost
Yes$2 @ 18.0¢
Will England win on 2026-07-01?Lost
No$9 @ 24.0¢
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup?Lost
Yes$60 @ 2.8¢
Will Real Madrid win Group H at the FIFA Club World Cup?Lost
No$25 @ 57.3¢
Will "I'm Still Here" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?Lost
Yes$17 @ 1.4¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$96 @ 12.7¢
Will Boca Juniors win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.9¢
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.2¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$18 @ 52.8¢
Spread: Argentina (-2.5)Won
Argentina$5 @ 28.0¢
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?Won
Yes$1 @ 25.0¢
Will Man City win the FIFA Club World Cup?Lost
Yes$20 @ 17.0¢
Will Botafogo win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup?Lost
Yes$30 @ 46.3¢
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup?Lost
Yes$8 @ 4.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$959	19.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$740	0.4¢
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Sports	Yes	$250	37.0¢
Will Colette Kress be the next CEO of NVIDIA?	Business	Yes	$242	30.3¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$205	20.5¢
Will Bayern Munich win the FIFA Club World Cup?	—	Yes	$119	13.9¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$93	12.7¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$41	1.6¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$36	6.1¢
Will Botafogo win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup?	—	Yes	$30	46.3¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	—	Up	$27	5.8¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	—	Up	$23	14.0¢
Will Fernanda Torres win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?	—	Yes	$20	10.2¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Sports	Yes	$18	52.8¢
Will "I'm Still Here" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?	—	Yes	$17	1.4¢
Spread: Argentina (-3.5)	Sports	Argentina	$14	7.7¢
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Sports	Spain	$14	10.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	—	Down	$13	6.0¢
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Sports	Yes	$12	17.2¢
Will Rafael Fonteles be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?	Politics	Yes	$12	12.0¢
Pacers vs. Thunder	—	Pacers	$10	33.5¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	—	Up	$10	5.4¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	—	Up	$9	0.9¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	—	Up	$6	0.6¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	—	Up	$5	75.0¢
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?	—	Yes	$5	23.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	—	Down	$5	4.1¢
Will Boca Juniors win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup?	—	Yes	$5	8.9¢
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$4	0.7¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	—	Up	$4	19.6¢

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$959 @ 19.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$740 @ 0.4¢
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?Sports
Yes$250 @ 37.0¢
Will Colette Kress be the next CEO of NVIDIA?Business
Yes$242 @ 30.3¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$205 @ 20.5¢
Will Bayern Munich win the FIFA Club World Cup?—
Yes$119 @ 13.9¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$93 @ 12.7¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$41 @ 1.6¢
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$36 @ 6.1¢
Will Botafogo win Group B at the FIFA Club World Cup?—
Yes$30 @ 46.3¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET—
Up$27 @ 5.8¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET—
Up$23 @ 14.0¢
Will Fernanda Torres win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?—
Yes$20 @ 10.2¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?Sports
Yes$18 @ 52.8¢
Will "I'm Still Here" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?—
Yes$17 @ 1.4¢
Spread: Argentina (-3.5)Sports
Argentina$14 @ 7.7¢
Spread: Spain (-3.5)Sports
Spain$14 @ 10.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET—
Down$13 @ 6.0¢
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?Sports
Yes$12 @ 17.2¢
Will Rafael Fonteles be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?Politics
Yes$12 @ 12.0¢
Pacers vs. Thunder—
Pacers$10 @ 33.5¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET—
Up$10 @ 5.4¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET—
Up$9 @ 0.9¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET—
Up$6 @ 0.6¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET—
Up$5 @ 75.0¢
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?—
Yes$5 @ 23.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET—
Down$5 @ 4.1¢
Will Boca Juniors win Group C at the FIFA Club World Cup?—
Yes$5 @ 8.9¢
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$4 @ 0.7¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET—
Up$4 @ 19.6¢