0x4bab…5fa0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4babdff767e9d62d98df2a770571bbece6a75fa0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+15.0pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

63% @ 47.9¢

Brier

0.162

Resolved

364

Avg size

$111

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	54% (52/97)	+19%	97
Politics	43% (3/7)	+8%	7
Economy	50% (2/4)	-2%	4
Tech	100% (3/3)	+94%	3
Sports	100% (1/1)	+14%	1
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+23%	1
Culture	100% (1/1)	+76%	1

Other97 bets
Hit rate
54% (52/97)
ROI
+19%
Politics7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
+8%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-2%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+94%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+14%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+23%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+76%

Track record

55% hit · 63/114

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Las Vegas Raiders draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft?	No	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?	Yes	$7	70.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$517	73.9¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$500	90.0¢	Won
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?	Yes	$670	48.9¢	Won
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 6-12?	Yes	$16	78.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	Yes	$39	77.0¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$312	62.4¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?	Yes	$567	65.5¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of January 2026?	No	$26	26.0¢	Won
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$500	52.0¢	Lost
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154	Yes	$85	4.4¢	Lost
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	$8	8.0¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	No	$500	85.0¢	Won
Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026?	No	$13	87.0¢	Won
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026	No	$89	54.7¢	Won
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	Yes	$723	72.3¢	Won
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?	Yes	$1.5k	38.2¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$297	74.2¢	Won
Israel military action against Yemen before November?	Yes	$500	68.2¢	Lost
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?	Yes	$500	88.0¢	Won
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	Yes	$55	54.9¢	Lost
Will Tesla (TSLA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of November 24?	Yes	$103	86.0¢	Won
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?	No	$173	65.3¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?	Yes	$61	61.0¢	Lost
Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 31?	Yes	$28	69.3¢	Won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?	Yes	$1000	78.0¢	Won
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?	Yes	$188	47.0¢	Won
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$18	61.0¢	Lost
Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election?	Yes	$500	67.0¢	Won
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?	No	$150	75.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 8?	Yes	$60	60.0¢	Lost
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?	Yes	$1.1k	41.6¢	Won
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 30-January 5?	Yes	$6	60.0¢	Won
Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Yes	$1.5k	84.0¢	Won
Will Alabama be the #1 overall seed in the 2025-26 College Football Playoff?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	$10	1.0¢	Lost
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$27	27.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?	No	$16	79.0¢	Won
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	Yes	$116	58.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$114	57.0¢	Won
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 23-29?	Yes	$7	67.0¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?	Yes	$620	69.5¢	Lost
Will Milton make landfall as a category 4?	Yes	$50	40.0¢	Lost
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by March 31?	Yes	$20	20.0¢	Lost
Will Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026?	No	$82	82.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?	No	$255	85.0¢	Won
1 Trump vs. Harris debate before election?	Yes	$238	35.1¢	Won
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	No	$110	73.5¢	Won
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$391	71.7¢	Won

Will the Las Vegas Raiders draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft?Lost
No$1 @ 5.0¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?Lost
Yes$7 @ 70.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$517 @ 73.9¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$500 @ 90.0¢
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?Won
Yes$670 @ 48.9¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 6-12?Won
Yes$16 @ 78.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Won
Yes$39 @ 77.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$312 @ 62.4¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Won
Yes$567 @ 65.5¢
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of January 2026?Won
No$26 @ 26.0¢
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
No$500 @ 52.0¢
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 105-154Lost
Yes$85 @ 4.4¢
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Lost
Yes$8 @ 8.0¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?Won
No$500 @ 85.0¢
Will Waymo operate in 5 cities or less on June 30 2026?Won
No$13 @ 87.0¢
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026Won
No$89 @ 54.7¢
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?Won
Yes$723 @ 72.3¢
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 38.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$297 @ 74.2¢
Israel military action against Yemen before November?Lost
Yes$500 @ 68.2¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Won
Yes$500 @ 88.0¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Lost
Yes$55 @ 54.9¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of November 24?Won
Yes$103 @ 86.0¢
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?Won
No$173 @ 65.3¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?Lost
Yes$61 @ 61.0¢
Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 31?Won
Yes$28 @ 69.3¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?Won
Yes$1000 @ 78.0¢
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?Won
Yes$188 @ 47.0¢
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$18 @ 61.0¢
Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election?Won
Yes$500 @ 67.0¢
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?Lost
No$150 @ 75.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 8?Lost
Yes$60 @ 60.0¢
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 41.6¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 30-January 5?Won
Yes$6 @ 60.0¢
Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 84.0¢
Will Alabama be the #1 overall seed in the 2025-26 College Football Playoff?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.0¢
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$27 @ 27.0¢
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?Won
No$16 @ 79.0¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?Won
Yes$116 @ 58.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$114 @ 57.0¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 23-29?Won
Yes$7 @ 67.0¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?Lost
Yes$620 @ 69.5¢
Will Milton make landfall as a category 4?Lost
Yes$50 @ 40.0¢
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by March 31?Lost
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
Will Waymo operate in 6 cities on June 30 2026?Won
No$82 @ 82.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?Won
No$255 @ 85.0¢
1 Trump vs. Harris debate before election?Won
Yes$238 @ 35.1¢
Will João Cotrim de Figueiredo qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?Won
No$110 @ 73.5¢
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$391 @ 71.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$68	27.0¢
Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 7M ETH before 2027?	Crypto	No	$67	44.7¢
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	Science	No	$49	34.0¢
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Science	No	$17	86.0¢
Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$0	12.0¢

Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?Crypto
Yes$68 @ 27.0¢
Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 7M ETH before 2027?Crypto
No$67 @ 44.7¢
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?Science
No$49 @ 34.0¢
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?Science
No$17 @ 86.0¢
Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$0 @ 12.0¢