0x4b5c…4568

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4b5ca6cabd1252c97ebc9da92544054a96ac4568
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-2.0pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

30% @ 32.0¢

Brier

0.106

Resolved

2252

Avg size

$16

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	34% (356/1042)	+13%	1042
Politics	43% (33/77)	-30%	77
Tech	13% (6/46)	-25%	46
Sports	5% (2/38)	-46%	38
Geopolitics	45% (9/20)	+11%	20
Economy	33% (2/6)	-0%	6
Culture	40% (2/5)	+14%	5
Business	50% (1/2)	+19%	2
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other1042 bets
Hit rate
34% (356/1042)
ROI
+13%
Politics77 bets
Hit rate
43% (33/77)
ROI
-30%
Tech46 bets
Hit rate
13% (6/46)
ROI
-25%
Sports38 bets
Hit rate
5% (2/38)
ROI
-46%
Geopolitics20 bets
Hit rate
45% (9/20)
ROI
+11%
Economy6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-0%
Culture5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+14%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+19%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

33% hit · 411/1237

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Databricks have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?	Yes	$2	4.0¢	Lost
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31?	Yes	$1	2.5¢	Lost
Will dola-seed-2.0-preview have the best AI model on April 10, 2026?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Jay-Z be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?	No	$20	82.7¢	Won
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on May 1, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.5¢	Lost
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$20	59.7¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$61	60.3¢	Lost
Will the Long Island Rail Road strike end by May 19, 2026?	No	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Cucho Hernández be in Colombia's Starting 11?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
76ers vs. Hornets	Hornets	$15	68.0¢	Lost
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?	No	$12	62.0¢	Won
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$20	67.5¢	Won
Spread: Suns (-8.5)	Suns	$45	59.1¢	Won
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?	No	$6	27.0¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$2	10.0¢	Lost
Bulls vs. Grizzlies	Bulls	$10	64.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	No	$17	86.0¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?	Yes	$6	3.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$50	67.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$105	63.0¢	Won
Will Keaton Wagler be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5	Over	$4	71.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$75	73.4¢	Won
Spread: Spurs (-13.5)	Kings	$10	52.0¢	Lost
Spread: Warriors (-13.5)	Wizards	$7	55.0¢	Won
Will Meta (META) close above $640 on March 11?	No	$2	9.0¢	Lost
Will Bill Clinton say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Epstein testimony?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Perplexity have the highest private market valuation on June 30?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on May 18?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Predators vs. Blackhawks	Blackhawks	$5	50.0¢	Lost
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs	Gen.G	$35	88.0¢	Won
Will Nike (NKE) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$0	16.0¢	Lost
Will Nike (NKE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$39	78.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Miami address?	Yes	$5	9.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?	Yes	$2	4.3¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs	Natus Vincere	$40	56.0¢	Won
Spread: Spurs (-7.5)	Spurs	$10	57.0¢	Won
Wild vs. Panthers	Panthers	$10	41.0¢	Lost
Thunder vs. Wizards	Wizards	$2	4.2¢	Lost
Spread: Thunder (-17.5)	Suns	$5	53.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 22?	No	$41	82.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 22?	Yes	$9	14.4¢	Lost
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 15 be between 85 and 90?	Yes	$16	72.1¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?	No	$15	75.0¢	Won
Ducks vs. Oilers	Oilers	$15	75.0¢	Won
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage	EYEBALLERS	$2	11.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage	TheMongolz	$35	82.0¢	Won
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%?	Yes	$61	51.3¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of May 4 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost

Will Databricks have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.0¢
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
Will dola-seed-2.0-preview have the best AI model on April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Jay-Z be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?Won
No$20 @ 82.7¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on May 1, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.5¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$20 @ 59.7¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$61 @ 60.3¢
Will the Long Island Rail Road strike end by May 19, 2026?Lost
No$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Cucho Hernández be in Colombia's Starting 11?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
76ers vs. HornetsLost
Hornets$15 @ 68.0¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31?Won
No$12 @ 62.0¢
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$20 @ 67.5¢
Spread: Suns (-8.5)Won
Suns$45 @ 59.1¢
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?Lost
No$6 @ 27.0¢
Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 10.0¢
Bulls vs. GrizzliesLost
Bulls$10 @ 64.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Won
No$17 @ 86.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 3.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$50 @ 67.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$105 @ 63.0¢
Will Keaton Wagler be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 222.5Lost
Over$4 @ 71.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$75 @ 73.4¢
Spread: Spurs (-13.5)Lost
Kings$10 @ 52.0¢
Spread: Warriors (-13.5)Won
Wizards$7 @ 55.0¢
Will Meta (META) close above $640 on March 11?Lost
No$2 @ 9.0¢
Will Bill Clinton say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Epstein testimony?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Perplexity have the highest private market valuation on June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on May 18?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Predators vs. BlackhawksLost
Blackhawks$5 @ 50.0¢
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup PlayoffsWon
Gen.G$35 @ 88.0¢
Will Nike (NKE) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$0 @ 16.0¢
Will Nike (NKE) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$39 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Miami address?Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.0¢
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.3¢
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League PlayoffsWon
Natus Vincere$40 @ 56.0¢
Spread: Spurs (-7.5)Won
Spurs$10 @ 57.0¢
Wild vs. PanthersLost
Panthers$10 @ 41.0¢
Thunder vs. WizardsLost
Wizards$2 @ 4.2¢
Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Won
Suns$5 @ 53.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 22?Won
No$41 @ 82.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on March 22?Lost
Yes$9 @ 14.4¢
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 15 be between 85 and 90?Won
Yes$16 @ 72.1¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?Won
No$15 @ 75.0¢
Ducks vs. OilersWon
Oilers$15 @ 75.0¢
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group StageLost
EYEBALLERS$2 @ 11.0¢
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group StageWon
TheMongolz$35 @ 82.0¢
Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by less than 5%?Lost
Yes$61 @ 51.3¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of May 4 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$200	88.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$50	80.3¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31	Politics	Yes	$36	22.9¢
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$18	88.0¢
Will Jordan Bardella be the next President of the National Rally in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$17	81.0¢
Nick Fuentes federally charged?	Politics	Yes	$1	1.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen be the next President of the National Rally in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	3.0¢
Will Laurent Jacobelli be the next President of the National Rally in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$0	1.0¢
Will Hélène Laporte be the next President of the National Rally in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$0	0.1¢

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$200 @ 88.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$50 @ 80.3¢
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31Politics
Yes$36 @ 22.9¢
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$18 @ 88.0¢
Will Jordan Bardella be the next President of the National Rally in 2026?Politics
Yes$17 @ 81.0¢
Nick Fuentes federally charged?Politics
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen be the next President of the National Rally in 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 3.0¢
Will Laurent Jacobelli be the next President of the National Rally in 2026?Politics
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will Hélène Laporte be the next President of the National Rally in 2026?Politics
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢