0x49d5…2e07

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x49d5360f86c5c49f08942300776d5cafe0f32e07
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.3pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

41% @ 36.1¢

Brier

0.125

Resolved

1167

Avg size

$189

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	37% (84/228)	+5%	228
Politics	67% (8/12)	+61%	12
Geopolitics	0% (0/5)	-100%	5
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other228 bets
Hit rate
37% (84/228)
ROI
+5%
Politics12 bets
Hit rate
67% (8/12)
ROI
+61%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

37% hit · 92/247

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Grizzlies vs. Rockets	Grizzlies	$60	44.0¢	Lost
Will Microsoft buy TikTok?	Yes	$512	25.0¢	Lost
Was Trump hacked?	Yes	$3.9k	6.7¢	Lost
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets	Trail Blazers	$110	31.0¢	Lost
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	Yes	$572	57.1¢	Won
Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia again in March?	No	$161	15.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?	No	$804	37.8¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?	No	$1.4k	36.5¢	Won
Knicks vs. Nets	Knicks	$200	65.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?	Putin	$5.8k	49.9¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July?	No	$2.3k	67.0¢	Won
Knicks vs. Bulls	Knicks	$40	67.5¢	Lost
Ethereum above $4000 on August 15?	No	$104	52.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$222	60.0¢	Lost
Trail Blazers vs. Magic	Magic	$1	50.0¢	Lost
Lakers vs. Warriors	Lakers	$300	50.6¢	Won
Rockets vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	$400	61.0¢	Lost
Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026?	Yes	$74	1.1¢	Lost
Military action against Iran ends on April 23, 2026?	Yes	$10	0.1¢	Lost
Will Jake Paul knockout Mike Tyson?	No	$12.1k	63.6¢	Won
Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in September?	No	$1.5k	37.7¢	Lost
49ers vs. Cardinals	49ers	$40	40.0¢	Lost
Lakers vs. Warriors	Lakers	$72	40.0¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$38	0.6¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$892	57.6¢	Won
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	Yes	$37	18.9¢	Won
Spread: Thunder (-18.5)	Lakers	$27	54.0¢	Lost
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?	Yes	$15	21.0¢	Lost
Heat vs. Bucks	Bucks	$101	69.7¢	Won
Grizzlies vs. Spurs	Grizzlies	$300	57.0¢	Won
Will Trump save TikTok in first week?	Yes	$252	68.0¢	Won
Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	$40	38.0¢	Lost
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$364	58.1¢	Lost
Celtics vs. Thunder	Celtics	$40	41.0¢	Lost
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok?	Yes	$168	5.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Japan troop visit on October 28?	No	$150	33.6¢	Lost
Bulls vs. Warriors	Warriors	$186	62.0¢	Won
TikTok sale announced before April?	Yes	$1.6k	51.2¢	Lost
Military action against Iran ends on April 18, 2026?	Yes	$33	0.7¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $130k first?	130k	$771	40.0¢	Lost
Nuggets vs. Magic	Nuggets	$653	65.5¢	Won
Kanye back on X by Friday?	No	$20	2.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?	No	$90	13.5¢	Lost
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?	Yes	$183	78.4¢	Won
Kings vs. Bucks	Kings	$100	46.0¢	Lost
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?	No	$900	45.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin above $110K on August 27?	No	$255	19.3¢	Lost
Bitcoin above $110K on August 27?	Yes	$1.1k	56.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "fake jobs" during Michigan rally on Nov 4?	No	$266	30.9¢	Lost
Clippers vs. Kings	Kings	$20	4.2¢	Lost

Grizzlies vs. RocketsLost
Grizzlies$60 @ 44.0¢
Will Microsoft buy TikTok?Lost
Yes$512 @ 25.0¢
Was Trump hacked?Lost
Yes$3.9k @ 6.7¢
Trail Blazers vs. NuggetsLost
Trail Blazers$110 @ 31.0¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Won
Yes$572 @ 57.1¢
Will Iran strike Saudi Arabia again in March?Lost
No$161 @ 15.9¢
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?Lost
No$804 @ 37.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August?Won
No$1.4k @ 36.5¢
Knicks vs. NetsWon
Knicks$200 @ 65.0¢
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?Lost
Putin$5.8k @ 49.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in July?Won
No$2.3k @ 67.0¢
Knicks vs. BullsLost
Knicks$40 @ 67.5¢
Ethereum above $4000 on August 15?Lost
No$104 @ 52.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$222 @ 60.0¢
Trail Blazers vs. MagicLost
Magic$1 @ 50.0¢
Lakers vs. WarriorsWon
Lakers$300 @ 50.6¢
Rockets vs. CavaliersLost
Cavaliers$400 @ 61.0¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$74 @ 1.1¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.1¢
Will Jake Paul knockout Mike Tyson?Won
No$12.1k @ 63.6¢
Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in September?Lost
No$1.5k @ 37.7¢
49ers vs. CardinalsLost
49ers$40 @ 40.0¢
Lakers vs. WarriorsWon
Lakers$72 @ 40.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$38 @ 0.6¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$892 @ 57.6¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Won
Yes$37 @ 18.9¢
Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Lost
Lakers$27 @ 54.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 26?Lost
Yes$15 @ 21.0¢
Heat vs. BucksWon
Bucks$101 @ 69.7¢
Grizzlies vs. SpursWon
Grizzlies$300 @ 57.0¢
Will Trump save TikTok in first week?Won
Yes$252 @ 68.0¢
Lakers vs. RocketsLost
Lakers$40 @ 38.0¢
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$364 @ 58.1¢
Celtics vs. ThunderLost
Celtics$40 @ 41.0¢
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok?Lost
Yes$168 @ 5.0¢
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Japan troop visit on October 28?Lost
No$150 @ 33.6¢
Bulls vs. WarriorsWon
Warriors$186 @ 62.0¢
TikTok sale announced before April?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 51.2¢
Military action against Iran ends on April 18, 2026?Lost
Yes$33 @ 0.7¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $130k first?Lost
130k$771 @ 40.0¢
Nuggets vs. MagicWon
Nuggets$653 @ 65.5¢
Kanye back on X by Friday?Lost
No$20 @ 2.0¢
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?Lost
No$90 @ 13.5¢
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?Won
Yes$183 @ 78.4¢
Kings vs. BucksLost
Kings$100 @ 46.0¢
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?Lost
No$900 @ 45.0¢
Bitcoin above $110K on August 27?Lost
No$255 @ 19.3¢
Bitcoin above $110K on August 27?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 56.0¢
Will Trump say "fake jobs" during Michigan rally on Nov 4?Lost
No$266 @ 30.9¢
Clippers vs. KingsLost
Kings$20 @ 4.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$540	54.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$200	36.9¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$200	24.3¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$103	10.3¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$50	4.3¢

Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
Yes$540 @ 54.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$200 @ 36.9¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$200 @ 24.3¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$103 @ 10.3¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$50 @ 4.3¢