0x49b1…c280

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x49b16a5f9e86796c9312c085590ead3ea292c280
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.9pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

57% @ 52.0¢

Brier

0.129

Resolved

790

Avg size

$37

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	56% (37/66)	+14%	66
Science	54% (7/13)	-17%	13
Politics	67% (6/9)	+41%	9
Culture	100% (1/1)	+20%	1

Other66 bets
Hit rate
56% (37/66)
ROI
+14%
Science13 bets
Hit rate
54% (7/13)
ROI
-17%
Politics9 bets
Hit rate
67% (6/9)
ROI
+41%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+20%

Track record

57% hit · 51/89

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	$26	64.6¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?	No	$217	84.8¢	Won
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	$98	80.4¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 13–20?	Yes	$7	7.0¢	Lost
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	$263	65.7¢	Won
Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?	No	$61	61.0¢	Won
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?	No	$49	24.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55–60 million views on day 1?	Yes	$7	7.4¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times June 6–13?	No	$57	57.0¢	Won
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?	No	$154	18.8¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan?	No	$46	5.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan?	Yes	$3.9k	56.5¢	Won
Another US military action against Iran by Tuesday?	Yes	$12	6.0¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sorin Grindeanu?	No	$44	88.1¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20?	Yes	$30	13.2¢	Lost
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + USR?	No	$1	61.0¢	Won
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?	No	$1.4k	44.3¢	Lost
Will there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$29	57.8¢	Won
Earthquake 7.0 or above before August?	No	$988	32.6¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?	No	$46	22.8¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?	Yes	$135	85.4¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?	No	$310	37.2¢	Lost
US-EU trade agreement by July 9?	No	$324	61.3¢	Won
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?	No	$3.4k	73.3¢	Won
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD?	No	$36	36.0¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6?	No	$308	69.9¢	Won
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?	No	$59	89.4¢	Won
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + PNL + UDMR?	No	$164	77.9¢	Won
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest?	No	$351	83.6¢	Won
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?	No	$2.2k	59.8¢	Won
Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31?	No	$511	57.4¢	Lost
Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31?	Yes	$166	74.4¢	Won
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?	No	$147	27.5¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 13–20?	Yes	$48	1.4¢	Lost
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	$24	56.0¢	Lost
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$47	31.3¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?	No	$2.1k	73.5¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June?	No	$662	77.6¢	Won
Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government?	No	$0	3.1¢	Lost
Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government?	No	$687	79.6¢	Won
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?	No	$152	15.6¢	Lost
Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	$130	75.3¢	Won
US military action against Iran before July?	No	$497	36.1¢	Lost
US military action against Iran before July?	Yes	$747	62.2¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4?	No	$80	80.1¢	Won
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest?	Yes	$297	14.5¢	Lost
Will there be between 1550 and 1599 measles cases in the U.S. on December 31?	No	$2	77.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Anca Dragu?	No	$26	88.0¢	Won
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20?	Yes	$4	3.6¢	Lost

Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Won
No$26 @ 64.6¢
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?Won
No$217 @ 84.8¢
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Won
Yes$98 @ 80.4¢
Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 13–20?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?Won
No$263 @ 65.7¢
Will there be at least 750 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Won
No$61 @ 61.0¢
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Lost
No$49 @ 24.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55–60 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.4¢
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times June 6–13?Won
No$57 @ 57.0¢
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?Lost
No$154 @ 18.8¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan?Lost
No$46 @ 5.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan?Won
Yes$3.9k @ 56.5¢
Another US military action against Iran by Tuesday?Lost
Yes$12 @ 6.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sorin Grindeanu?Won
No$44 @ 88.1¢
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 13–20?Lost
Yes$30 @ 13.2¢
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + USR?Won
No$1 @ 61.0¢
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?Lost
No$1.4k @ 44.3¢
Will there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 6.0¢
Will there be at least 1925 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$29 @ 57.8¢
Earthquake 7.0 or above before August?Lost
No$988 @ 32.6¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?Lost
No$46 @ 22.8¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL?Won
Yes$135 @ 85.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? Lost
No$310 @ 37.2¢
US-EU trade agreement by July 9?Won
No$324 @ 61.3¢
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?Won
No$3.4k @ 73.3¢
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD?Lost
No$36 @ 36.0¢
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6?Won
No$308 @ 69.9¢
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31?Won
No$59 @ 89.4¢
Will the next governing coalition of Romania include PSD + PNL + UDMR?Won
No$164 @ 77.9¢
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest?Won
No$351 @ 83.6¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?Won
No$2.2k @ 59.8¢
Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31?Lost
No$511 @ 57.4¢
Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31?Won
Yes$166 @ 74.4¢
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?Won
No$147 @ 27.5¢
Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 13–20?Lost
Yes$48 @ 1.4¢
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$24 @ 56.0¢
Will there be at least 1950 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$47 @ 31.3¢
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?Won
No$2.1k @ 73.5¢
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June?Won
No$662 @ 77.6¢
Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romanian government?Lost
No$0 @ 3.1¢
Will the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) be included in the next Romanian government?Won
No$687 @ 79.6¢
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?Lost
No$152 @ 15.6¢
Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Won
Yes$130 @ 75.3¢
US military action against Iran before July?Lost
No$497 @ 36.1¢
US military action against Iran before July?Won
Yes$747 @ 62.2¢
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4?Won
No$80 @ 80.1¢
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest?Lost
Yes$297 @ 14.5¢
Will there be between 1550 and 1599 measles cases in the U.S. on December 31?Won
No$2 @ 77.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Anca Dragu?Won
No$26 @ 88.0¢
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 13–20?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$823	80.4¢
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$307	88.5¢
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Science	No	$279	93.0¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Tech	No	$204	97.0¢
Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?	Culture	No	$146	94.0¢
Will Rockstar release GTA VI on PC in March 2027 (ET)?	Culture	No	$73	73.0¢
Will Rockstar release GTA VI on PC before January 2027?	Culture	No	$12	92.2¢

Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$823 @ 80.4¢
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$307 @ 88.5¢
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?Science
No$279 @ 93.0¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?Tech
No$204 @ 97.0¢
Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?Culture
No$146 @ 94.0¢
Will Rockstar release GTA VI on PC in March 2027 (ET)?Culture
No$73 @ 73.0¢
Will Rockstar release GTA VI on PC before January 2027?Culture
No$12 @ 92.2¢