0x49ae…f3ba

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x49ae18c82dab9fd3a2bb84d0a96c3ded503ff3ba
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.3pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

71% @ 63.2¢

Brier

0.135

Resolved

845

Avg size

$325

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	59% (124/209)	+13%	209
Politics	79% (11/14)	+5%	14
Sports	60% (3/5)	+57%	5
Tech	100% (4/4)	+1%	4
Science	100% (3/3)	+36%	3
Economy	67% (2/3)	-94%	3
Geopolitics	50% (1/2)	+1%	2

Other209 bets
Hit rate
59% (124/209)
ROI
+13%
Politics14 bets
Hit rate
79% (11/14)
ROI
+5%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
60% (3/5)
ROI
+57%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+1%
Science3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+36%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-94%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+1%

Track record

62% hit · 148/240

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	Yes	$249	99.6¢	Won
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	$21	51.0¢	Won
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	$388	90.9¢	Won
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026	No	$50	99.5¢	Won
Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026	Yes	$920	99.0¢	Won
Will Tesla deliver between 500000 and 525000 vehicles in Q3 2026	No	$1.8k	99.7¢	Won
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?	No	$419	84.0¢	Lost
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?	No	$3	14.0¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	No	$24.6k	65.0¢	Won
Israel military action against Iran in April?	No	$320	89.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk give a speech at Bitcoin conference?	No	$176	72.7¢	Won
Will Elon Musk give a speech at Bitcoin conference?	Yes	$51	33.7¢	Lost
Bitcoin above $68,000 on August 2?	No	$40	66.9¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	Yes	$35	23.0¢	Lost
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?	No	$169	81.2¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	Yes	$53	3.5¢	Lost
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?	No	$195	88.1¢	Lost
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?	Yes	$9	13.9¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of February 2026?	No	$20	43.9¢	Lost
Will Ukraine take the Kursk Nuclear Plant by Aug 31?	Yes	$15	49.0¢	Lost
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?	No	$40	80.0¢	Lost
Will Obama endorse Kamala by tomorrow?	Yes	$291	42.8¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	$150	60.0¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31?	Yes	$31	7.7¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?	Yes	$54	10.0¢	Won
Fear & Greed Index says "Extreme Fear" on Friday?	No	$192	58.3¢	Lost
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	No	$393	87.0¢	Won
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$186	83.0¢	Won
New pandemic before July?	No	$2.2k	87.0¢	Won
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?	Yes	$18	17.0¢	Lost
Fed rate cut by July 31?	Yes	$154	8.5¢	Lost
Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?	Yes	$2	10.2¢	Lost
Annual inflation above 2.2% in September?	No	$23	23.0¢	Lost
Diddy sex tape released before November?	No	$96	75.4¢	Won
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?	Yes	$3	5.9¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	$365	78.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	Yes	$22	23.4¢	Lost
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?	Yes	$16	79.1¢	Won
Trump to speak at Bitcoin 2024 conference?	No	$23	37.0¢	Lost
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	No	$11.3k	82.5¢	Won
Will the US add at least 200k jobs in June?	Yes	$11	6.7¢	Lost
Will inflation increase by 2.8% or more in November?	No	$211	70.3¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2.0k	76.3¢	Won
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?	Yes	$9.1k	71.1¢	Lost
2024 July hottest on record?	No	$2	23.0¢	Lost
2024 July hottest on record?	Yes	$21	30.0¢	Won
$ETH dips below $2,000 by Friday?	Yes	$4	8.9¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?	Yes	$1.5k	79.0¢	Won
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28?	No	$358	37.5¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20?	Yes	$52	16.7¢	Lost

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?Won
Yes$249 @ 99.6¢
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Won
Yes$21 @ 51.0¢
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Won
No$388 @ 90.9¢
Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q3 2026Won
No$50 @ 99.5¢
Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026Won
Yes$920 @ 99.0¢
Will Tesla deliver between 500000 and 525000 vehicles in Q3 2026Won
No$1.8k @ 99.7¢
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?Lost
No$419 @ 84.0¢
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?Won
No$3 @ 14.0¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Won
No$24.6k @ 65.0¢
Israel military action against Iran in April?Won
No$320 @ 89.0¢
Will Elon Musk give a speech at Bitcoin conference? Won
No$176 @ 72.7¢
Will Elon Musk give a speech at Bitcoin conference? Lost
Yes$51 @ 33.7¢
Bitcoin above $68,000 on August 2?Won
No$40 @ 66.9¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Lost
Yes$35 @ 23.0¢
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?Won
No$169 @ 81.2¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?Lost
Yes$53 @ 3.5¢
Will Trump publicly disparage Elon before July?Lost
No$195 @ 88.1¢
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?Lost
Yes$9 @ 13.9¢
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of February 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 43.9¢
Will Ukraine take the Kursk Nuclear Plant by Aug 31?Lost
Yes$15 @ 49.0¢
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?Lost
No$40 @ 80.0¢
Will Obama endorse Kamala by tomorrow? Won
Yes$291 @ 42.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
No$150 @ 60.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31?Lost
Yes$31 @ 7.7¢
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?Won
Yes$54 @ 10.0¢
Fear & Greed Index says "Extreme Fear" on Friday?Lost
No$192 @ 58.3¢
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?Won
No$393 @ 87.0¢
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$186 @ 83.0¢
New pandemic before July?Won
No$2.2k @ 87.0¢
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?Lost
Yes$18 @ 17.0¢
Fed rate cut by July 31?Lost
Yes$154 @ 8.5¢
Will Andy Beshear be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?Lost
Yes$2 @ 10.2¢
Annual inflation above 2.2% in September?Lost
No$23 @ 23.0¢
Diddy sex tape released before November? Won
No$96 @ 75.4¢
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?Lost
Yes$3 @ 5.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Won
No$365 @ 78.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?Lost
Yes$22 @ 23.4¢
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?Won
Yes$16 @ 79.1¢
Trump to speak at Bitcoin 2024 conference?Lost
No$23 @ 37.0¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Won
No$11.3k @ 82.5¢
Will the US add at least 200k jobs in June?Lost
Yes$11 @ 6.7¢
Will inflation increase by 2.8% or more in November?Won
No$211 @ 70.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 76.3¢
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?Lost
Yes$9.1k @ 71.1¢
2024 July hottest on record?Lost
No$2 @ 23.0¢
2024 July hottest on record?Won
Yes$21 @ 30.0¢
$ETH dips below $2,000 by Friday?Lost
Yes$4 @ 8.9¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 79.0¢
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28?Won
No$358 @ 37.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20?Lost
Yes$52 @ 16.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Science	No	$161	96.0¢
Plague pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$150	93.4¢
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Science	Yes	$123	38.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$121	84.0¢
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day?	Business	No	$29	66.0¢

Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Science
No$161 @ 96.0¢
Plague pandemic in 2026?Science
No$150 @ 93.4¢
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Science
Yes$123 @ 38.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$121 @ 84.0¢
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day?Business
No$29 @ 66.0¢