0x4938…ce0c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x493832b2aa23507302810e519bc49da754e1ce0c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-2.9pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

16% @ 19.4¢

Brier

0.052

Resolved

601

Avg size

$45

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	36% (18/50)	+16%	50
Crypto	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Sports	100% (1/1)	+61%	1
Politics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other50 bets
Hit rate
36% (18/50)
ROI
+16%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+61%
Politics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

34% hit · 19/56

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Lighter Airdrop on December 26?	Yes	$33	3.7¢	Lost
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?	Yes	$136	48.4¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?	Yes	$16	16.0¢	Lost
Lighter Airdrop on December 22?	Yes	$81	3.2¢	Lost
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?	Yes	$1.3k	59.2¢	Won
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$900	84.8¢	Lost
Lighter Airdrop on December 20?	Yes	$65	1.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?	Yes	$14	14.0¢	Lost
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30?	Yes	$309	88.0¢	Won
Lighter Airdrop on December 19?	Yes	$54	2.7¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?	Yes	$12	12.0¢	Lost
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?	Yes	$26	16.0¢	Lost
Liverpool wins the Premier League?	Yes	$45	52.5¢	Won
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League?	No	$151	83.6¢	Won
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?	Yes	$276	85.0¢	Lost
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?	Yes	$480	69.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?	Yes	$14	14.0¢	Lost
Lighter Airdrop on December 28?	Yes	$41	4.1¢	Lost
Lighter Airdrop on December 21?	Yes	$65	1.5¢	Lost
Lighter Airdrop on December 23?	Yes	$71	4.6¢	Lost
Lighter Airdrop on December 18?	Yes	$39	2.1¢	Lost
Over $4M committed to the Fabric public sale?	Yes	$275	87.9¢	Lost
Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6?	Yes	$55	28.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	Yes	$37	11.5¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November?	No	$5.3k	78.6¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?	Yes	$100	65.1¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	Yes	$215	71.8¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?	No	$2.5k	80.4¢	Won
Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale?	No	$46	10.8¢	Lost
Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale?	Yes	$44	69.3¢	Won
Lighter Airdrop on December 17?	Yes	$31	2.8¢	Lost
Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale?	Yes	$4.7k	66.8¢	Won
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$256	49.0¢	Lost
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?	Yes	$2.1k	83.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?	Yes	$100	52.0¢	Lost
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?	Yes	$1.2k	60.1¢	Lost
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$91	6.9¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February?	No	$290	87.0¢	Won
Will FDP win the most seats in the next German election?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Ripple above $1.69 on December 6?	No	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	No	$671	84.4¢	Lost
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$649	62.1¢	Won
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	$219	57.9¢	Lost
Lighter Airdrop on December 27?	Yes	$39	3.9¢	Lost
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?	No	$151	70.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?	Yes	$9	9.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?	No	$176	45.3¢	Won
Will Solana dip to $50 in February?	No	$864	78.5¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?	No	$1.3k	59.9¢	Won

Lighter Airdrop on December 26?Lost
Yes$33 @ 3.7¢
Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?Lost
Yes$136 @ 48.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 16.0¢
Lighter Airdrop on December 22?Lost
Yes$81 @ 3.2¢
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 59.2¢
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$900 @ 84.8¢
Lighter Airdrop on December 20?Lost
Yes$65 @ 1.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 14.0¢
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Won
Yes$309 @ 88.0¢
Lighter Airdrop on December 19?Lost
Yes$54 @ 2.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 12.0¢
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?Lost
Yes$26 @ 16.0¢
Liverpool wins the Premier League?Won
Yes$45 @ 52.5¢
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League?Won
No$151 @ 83.6¢
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?Lost
Yes$276 @ 85.0¢
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?Lost
Yes$480 @ 69.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 14.0¢
Lighter Airdrop on December 28?Lost
Yes$41 @ 4.1¢
Lighter Airdrop on December 21?Lost
Yes$65 @ 1.5¢
Lighter Airdrop on December 23?Lost
Yes$71 @ 4.6¢
Lighter Airdrop on December 18?Lost
Yes$39 @ 2.1¢
Over $4M committed to the Fabric public sale?Lost
Yes$275 @ 87.9¢
Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6?Won
Yes$55 @ 28.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$37 @ 11.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November?Won
No$5.3k @ 78.6¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?Won
Yes$100 @ 65.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?Lost
Yes$215 @ 71.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?Won
No$2.5k @ 80.4¢
Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale?Lost
No$46 @ 10.8¢
Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale?Won
Yes$44 @ 69.3¢
Lighter Airdrop on December 17?Lost
Yes$31 @ 2.8¢
Over $10M committed to the Gensyn public sale?Won
Yes$4.7k @ 66.8¢
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$256 @ 49.0¢
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 83.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November?Lost
Yes$100 @ 52.0¢
Over $20M committed to the Gensyn public sale?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 60.1¢
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Lost
Yes$91 @ 6.9¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February?Won
No$290 @ 87.0¢
Will FDP win the most seats in the next German election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Ripple above $1.69 on December 6?Lost
No$1 @ 0.6¢
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?Lost
No$671 @ 84.4¢
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$649 @ 62.1¢
Flying Tulip FDV above $800M one day after launch?Lost
No$219 @ 57.9¢
Lighter Airdrop on December 27?Lost
Yes$39 @ 3.9¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?Won
No$151 @ 70.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?Won
No$176 @ 45.3¢
Will Solana dip to $50 in February?Won
No$864 @ 78.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?Won
No$1.3k @ 59.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$944	87.1¢
Will KAST launch a token by March 31, 2027?	Crypto	Yes	$10	51.7¢

Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$944 @ 87.1¢
Will KAST launch a token by March 31, 2027?Crypto
Yes$10 @ 51.7¢