0x4934…5951

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4934b87b797da86247c7e5d826b1bf575ed35951
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.9pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

34% @ 30.5¢

Brier

0.148

Resolved

2893

Avg size

$20

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	52% (301/578)	+24%	578
Politics	30% (26/86)	-4%	86
Sports	61% (14/23)	+184%	23
Geopolitics	15% (2/13)	-57%	13
Crypto	40% (2/5)	+43%	5
Culture	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Tech	100% (1/1)	+300%	1

Other578 bets
Hit rate
52% (301/578)
ROI
+24%
Politics86 bets
Hit rate
30% (26/86)
ROI
-4%
Sports23 bets
Hit rate
61% (14/23)
ROI
+184%
Geopolitics13 bets
Hit rate
15% (2/13)
ROI
-57%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+43%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+300%

Track record

49% hit · 346/708

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5)	PARIVISION	$6	82.0¢	Won
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group Stage	JD Gaming	$6	62.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 1WIN - Map 1 Winner	1WIN	$12	83.0¢	Won
China Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Qinwen Zheng	Qinwen Zheng	$6	73.0¢	Won
China Open: Alina Charaeva vs Sonay Kartal	Alina Charaeva	$6	60.0¢	Won
China Open: Learner Tien vs Hubert Hurkacz	Hubert Hurkacz	$6	20.0¢	Won
Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club: O/U 4.5	Under	$8	60.5¢	Won
NAC Breda vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 4.5	Under	$2	5.0¢	Lost
Hull City AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5	Under	$22	62.3¢	Won
NAC Breda vs. FC Volendam: O/U 4.5	Under	$2	66.0¢	Won
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5	Over	$2	30.0¢	Lost
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5	Over	$5	66.0¢	Won
West Ham United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5	Over	$26	65.0¢	Lost
Dundee FC vs. Livingston FC: O/U 4.5	Under	$24	59.5¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	Yes	$181	9.4¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$211	35.8¢	Won
Derby County FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 1.5	Over	$5	66.0¢	Won
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 4.5	Under	$8	60.5¢	Won
CA Platense vs. CA Independiente: O/U 1.5	Over	$4	50.0¢	Lost
AS Monaco FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5	Under	$35	60.7¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$298	71.0¢	Won
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres	Minnesota Twins	$102	47.0¢	Lost
Hull City AFC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 4.5	Under	$5	66.0¢	Lost
Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5	Over	$4	60.0¢	Won
Swansea City AFC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC: O/U 1.5	Over	$4	60.0¢	Won
Genoa CFC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 4.5	Under	$5	66.0¢	Lost
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 4.5	Under	$5	66.0¢	Won
Wrexham AFC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 1.5	Over	$5	66.0¢	Won
Pisa SC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 4.5	Under	$7	68.7¢	Won
Real Sporting de Gijón vs. SD Huesca: O/U 3.5	Under	$6	80.0¢	Won
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?	Yes	$111	37.0¢	Won
AFC Ajax vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 4.5	Under	$24	59.5¢	Lost
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	Yes	$1	19.1¢	Lost
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 4.5	Under	$20	66.0¢	Won
En Avant Guingamp vs. AS Saint-Étienne: O/U 4.5	Under	$20	66.0¢	Won
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$202	22.3¢	Lost
CD Santa Clara vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 4.5	Under	$5	78.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$420	39.8¢	Won
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 1.5	Over	$4	55.0¢	Lost
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$16	0.8¢	Lost
Birmingham City FC vs. Leicester City FC: O/U 4.5	Under	$5	66.0¢	Won
SV 07 Elversberg vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5	Over	$5	66.0¢	Won
Amiens SC vs. USL Dunkerque: O/U 4.5	Under	$20	66.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	$201	49.0¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$198	54.9¢	Won
FK Pardubice vs. SK Slavia Praha: O/U 4.5	Under	$6	80.0¢	Won
Montpellier HSC vs. Le Mans FC: O/U 4.5	Under	$24	59.5¢	Lost
Will 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?	Yes	$206	17.2¢	Lost
Philadelphia Phillies winning after 5 innings?	Yes	$15	50.0¢	Won

Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5)Won
PARIVISION$6 @ 82.0¢
LoL: JD Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group StageLost
JD Gaming$6 @ 62.0¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 1WIN - Map 1 WinnerWon
1WIN$12 @ 83.0¢
China Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Qinwen ZhengWon
Qinwen Zheng$6 @ 73.0¢
China Open: Alina Charaeva vs Sonay KartalWon
Alina Charaeva$6 @ 60.0¢
China Open: Learner Tien vs Hubert HurkaczWon
Hubert Hurkacz$6 @ 20.0¢
Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club: O/U 4.5Won
Under$8 @ 60.5¢
NAC Breda vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 4.5Lost
Under$2 @ 5.0¢
Hull City AFC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 4.5Won
Under$22 @ 62.3¢
NAC Breda vs. FC Volendam: O/U 4.5Won
Under$2 @ 66.0¢
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$2 @ 30.0¢
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Won
Over$5 @ 66.0¢
West Ham United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$26 @ 65.0¢
Dundee FC vs. Livingston FC: O/U 4.5Won
Under$24 @ 59.5¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Lost
Yes$181 @ 9.4¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$211 @ 35.8¢
Derby County FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 1.5Won
Over$5 @ 66.0¢
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 4.5Won
Under$8 @ 60.5¢
CA Platense vs. CA Independiente: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$4 @ 50.0¢
AS Monaco FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5Lost
Under$35 @ 60.7¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$298 @ 71.0¢
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego PadresLost
Minnesota Twins$102 @ 47.0¢
Hull City AFC vs. Bristol City FC: O/U 4.5Lost
Under$5 @ 66.0¢
Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5Won
Over$4 @ 60.0¢
Swansea City AFC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC: O/U 1.5Won
Over$4 @ 60.0¢
Genoa CFC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 4.5Lost
Under$5 @ 66.0¢
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 4.5Won
Under$5 @ 66.0¢
Wrexham AFC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 1.5Won
Over$5 @ 66.0¢
Pisa SC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 4.5Won
Under$7 @ 68.7¢
Real Sporting de Gijón vs. SD Huesca: O/U 3.5Won
Under$6 @ 80.0¢
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?Won
Yes$111 @ 37.0¢
AFC Ajax vs. Fortuna Sittard: O/U 4.5Lost
Under$24 @ 59.5¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 19.1¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 4.5Won
Under$20 @ 66.0¢
En Avant Guingamp vs. AS Saint-Étienne: O/U 4.5Won
Under$20 @ 66.0¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$202 @ 22.3¢
CD Santa Clara vs. Estoril Praia: O/U 4.5Lost
Under$5 @ 78.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$420 @ 39.8¢
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. CD Santa Clara: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$4 @ 55.0¢
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$16 @ 0.8¢
Birmingham City FC vs. Leicester City FC: O/U 4.5Won
Under$5 @ 66.0¢
SV 07 Elversberg vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5Won
Over$5 @ 66.0¢
Amiens SC vs. USL Dunkerque: O/U 4.5Lost
Under$20 @ 66.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
No$201 @ 49.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$198 @ 54.9¢
FK Pardubice vs. SK Slavia Praha: O/U 4.5Won
Under$6 @ 80.0¢
Montpellier HSC vs. Le Mans FC: O/U 4.5Lost
Under$24 @ 59.5¢
Will 4–5 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?Lost
Yes$206 @ 17.2¢
Philadelphia Phillies winning after 5 innings?Won
Yes$15 @ 50.0¢

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 1WIN - Map 1 Winner	Sports	1WIN	$12	83.0¢
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5)	Sports	PARIVISION	$6	82.0¢

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 1WIN - Map 1 WinnerSports
1WIN$12 @ 83.0¢
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5)Sports
PARIVISION$6 @ 82.0¢