0x490e…123a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x490e59912217dc88940c4f879115d67cd65a123a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.9pp

ROI

+13%

Win rate

41% @ 34.2¢

Brier

0.154

Resolved

287

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (91/190)	+38%	190
Science	3% (1/33)	-87%	33
Sports	44% (12/27)	+32%	27
Politics	36% (4/11)	-1%	11
Tech	40% (2/5)	-17%	5
Crypto	40% (2/5)	-24%	5
Geopolitics	100% (3/3)	+294%	3
Economy	100% (2/2)	+84%	2

Other190 bets
Hit rate
48% (91/190)
ROI
+38%
Science33 bets
Hit rate
3% (1/33)
ROI
-87%
Sports27 bets
Hit rate
44% (12/27)
ROI
+32%
Politics11 bets
Hit rate
36% (4/11)
ROI
-1%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-17%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-24%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+294%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+84%

Track record

42% hit · 117/276

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27?	No	$22	72.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27?	Yes	$15	43.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 2?	Yes	$2	20.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 18?	Yes	$3	7.6¢	Lost
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	No	$5	44.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2?	Yes	$3	28.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on June 2?	Yes	$1	3.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2?	Yes	$2	29.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 30?	Yes	$3	10.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 23?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$2	8.9¢	Lost
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell	Kimberly Birrell	$25	45.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18?	Yes	$1	29.0¢	Lost
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$24	38.2¢	Won
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	Under	$5	37.9¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15?	Yes	$7	17.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19?	Yes	$3	6.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12?	Yes	$2	10.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12?	Yes	$5	11.9¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	$67	76.3¢	Won
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner	KOLESIE	$15	36.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11?	Yes	$2	23.2¢	Lost
ITF Casablanca: Emma Lene vs Aran Teixido Garcia	Emma Lene	$21	41.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 11?	Yes	$3	6.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13?	Yes	$2	4.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$6	59.0¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 12?	No	$4	9.0¢	Lost
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India	England	$4	37.5¢	Won
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India	India	$11	67.3¢	Lost
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5	Under	$4	10.3¢	Won
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon	Nadia Podoroska	$29	31.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15?	Yes	$0	1.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 106-107°F on July 2?	Yes	$0	3.9¢	Lost
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	No	$5	18.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 2?	Yes	$2	14.4¢	Lost
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	53.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12?	Yes	$2	5.7¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	$6	89.4¢	Won
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$5	15.0¢	Lost
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	No	$4	38.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12?	No	$8	35.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on June 2?	Yes	$4	12.3¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	$7	82.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17?	Yes	$2	6.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 3?	Yes	$6	7.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17?	Yes	$2	7.8¢	Lost
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5	Over	$38	63.0¢	Won
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$3	35.0¢	Lost

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27?Won
No$22 @ 72.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or below on June 27?Lost
Yes$15 @ 43.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 2?Lost
Yes$2 @ 20.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 18?Lost
Yes$3 @ 7.6¢
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?Lost
No$5 @ 44.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2?Won
Yes$3 @ 28.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on June 2?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.9¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2?Lost
Yes$2 @ 29.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 23?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.9¢
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly BirrellLost
Kimberly Birrell$25 @ 45.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18?Lost
Yes$1 @ 29.0¢
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to ScoreWon
Yes$24 @ 38.2¢
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5Lost
Under$5 @ 37.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15?Lost
Yes$7 @ 17.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12?Lost
Yes$2 @ 10.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12?Lost
Yes$5 @ 11.9¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Won
No$67 @ 76.3¢
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 WinnerLost
KOLESIE$15 @ 36.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11?Lost
Yes$2 @ 23.2¢
ITF Casablanca: Emma Lene vs Aran Teixido GarciaLost
Emma Lene$21 @ 41.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 11?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.0¢
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$6 @ 59.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 12?Lost
No$4 @ 9.0¢
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs IndiaWon
England$4 @ 37.5¢
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs IndiaLost
India$11 @ 67.3¢
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5Won
Under$4 @ 10.3¢
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez AlarconWon
Nadia Podoroska$29 @ 31.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.5¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 106-107°F on July 2?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.9¢
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?Lost
No$5 @ 18.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 2?Lost
Yes$2 @ 14.4¢
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$5 @ 53.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
No$6 @ 89.4¢
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$5 @ 15.0¢
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?Lost
No$4 @ 38.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12?Lost
No$8 @ 35.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on June 2?Lost
Yes$4 @ 12.3¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Won
Yes$7 @ 82.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17?Lost
Yes$2 @ 6.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 3?Lost
Yes$6 @ 7.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.8¢
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5Won
Over$38 @ 63.0¢
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$3 @ 35.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$119	15.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	—	No	$70	67.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?	—	No	$53	79.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?	—	No	$33	84.7¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	—	Yes	$27	69.3¢
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$27	63.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	Politics	No	$15	82.5¢
Will Solana dip to $60 in August?	—	No	$12	82.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Politics	No	$9	91.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?	—	No	$9	65.0¢
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	—	Yes	$9	82.0¢
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$9	81.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?	—	No	$9	83.7¢
Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election?	Politics	Yes	$9	76.0¢
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	Sports	Yes	$9	72.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?	—	No	$7	92.8¢
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?	—	Yes	$6	23.0¢
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?	Sports	Yes	$6	68.9¢
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?	Sports	Yes	$6	66.0¢
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by August 31?	Politics	No	$5	83.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on August 3?	—	Yes	$5	21.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 4?	—	Yes	$5	18.0¢
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Politics	Yes	$4	72.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 4?	—	Yes	$4	10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 3?	—	Yes	$4	7.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?	—	No	$3	90.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 3?	—	Yes	$3	20.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 3?	—	Yes	$2	11.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on August 3?	—	Yes	$1	1.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 3?	—	Yes	$0	6.0¢

Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$119 @ 15.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?—
No$70 @ 67.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?—
No$53 @ 79.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?—
No$33 @ 84.7¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?—
Yes$27 @ 69.3¢
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$27 @ 63.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?Politics
No$15 @ 82.5¢
Will Solana dip to $60 in August?—
No$12 @ 82.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Politics
No$9 @ 91.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?—
No$9 @ 65.0¢
Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?—
Yes$9 @ 82.0¢
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?Politics
Yes$9 @ 81.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?—
No$9 @ 83.7¢
Will Eduardo Braide win the Governor of Maranhão election?Politics
Yes$9 @ 76.0¢
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?Sports
Yes$9 @ 72.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in August?—
No$7 @ 92.8¢
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?—
Yes$6 @ 23.0¢
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?Sports
Yes$6 @ 68.9¢
Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?Sports
Yes$6 @ 66.0¢
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by August 31?Politics
No$5 @ 83.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on August 3?—
Yes$5 @ 21.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 4?—
Yes$5 @ 18.0¢
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?Politics
Yes$4 @ 72.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 4?—
Yes$4 @ 10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 3?—
Yes$4 @ 7.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?—
No$3 @ 90.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 3?—
Yes$3 @ 20.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 3?—
Yes$2 @ 11.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on August 3?—
Yes$1 @ 1.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 3?—
Yes$0 @ 6.0¢