0x490e…123a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x490e59912217dc88940c4f879115d67cd65a123a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.3pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

54% @ 45.5¢

Brier

0.188

Resolved

446

Avg size

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (80/161)	+28%	161
Science	3% (1/33)	-87%	33
Sports	39% (7/18)	+31%	18
Politics	36% (4/11)	+2%	11
Crypto	40% (2/5)	-63%	5
Tech	25% (1/4)	-84%	4
Geopolitics	100% (3/3)	+294%	3
Economy	100% (1/1)	+127%	1

Other161 bets
Hit rate
50% (80/161)
ROI
+28%
Science33 bets
Hit rate
3% (1/33)
ROI
-87%
Sports18 bets
Hit rate
39% (7/18)
ROI
+31%
Politics11 bets
Hit rate
36% (4/11)
ROI
+2%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-63%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-84%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+294%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+127%

Track record

42% hit · 99/236

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 2?	Yes	$2	20.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 18?	Yes	$3	7.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 11?	Yes	$1	15.9¢	Lost
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	No	$5	44.0¢	Lost
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04?	No	$11	80.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 11?	Yes	$2	14.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 9?	Yes	$1	15.0¢	Won
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-02?	Yes	$8	85.0¢	Won
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	No	$5	13.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2?	Yes	$3	28.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on June 2?	Yes	$1	3.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 9?	Yes	$0	5.7¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	No	$2	30.0¢	Lost
Will PEC Zwolle win on 2026-05-03?	No	$19	12.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	$36	43.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 14?	Yes	$2	11.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2?	Yes	$2	29.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 30?	Yes	$2	60.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 6?	Yes	$2	12.9¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 1?	No	$28	80.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 13?	Yes	$6	20.6¢	Lost
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?	No	$0	1.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	$4	10.0¢	Lost
Will San Diego FC vs. Los Angeles FC end in a draw?	No	$1	89.0¢	Lost
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	$3	1.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 6?	Yes	$3	42.8¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$216	78.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 30?	Yes	$3	10.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 6?	No	$4	62.0¢	Won
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$2	8.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 6?	Yes	$0	17.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 10?	No	$6	90.0¢	Won
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-05?	Yes	$4	71.0¢	Won
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell	Kimberly Birrell	$25	45.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or higher on May 3?	Yes	$1	22.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18?	Yes	$1	29.0¢	Lost
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$24	38.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 1?	Yes	$1	23.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 5?	Yes	$1	11.0¢	Lost
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	Under	$5	37.9¢	Lost
Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-05-07?	No	$7	52.0¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$19	87.0¢	Won
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03?	No	$8	88.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$9	63.3¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Haras El Hodood SC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC: O/U 1.5	Over	$41	48.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 4?	Yes	$1	19.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 10?	Yes	$2	18.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15?	Yes	$7	17.8¢	Lost

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 2?Lost
Yes$2 @ 20.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C or below on June 18?Lost
Yes$3 @ 7.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 11?Lost
Yes$1 @ 15.9¢
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?Lost
No$5 @ 44.0¢
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04?Won
No$11 @ 80.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 11?Lost
Yes$2 @ 14.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 9?Won
Yes$1 @ 15.0¢
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-02?Won
Yes$8 @ 85.0¢
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?Won
No$5 @ 13.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2?Won
Yes$3 @ 28.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on June 2?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 9?Lost
Yes$0 @ 5.7¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Lost
No$2 @ 30.0¢
Will PEC Zwolle win on 2026-05-03?Lost
No$19 @ 12.0¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$36 @ 43.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 14?Lost
Yes$2 @ 11.2¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 2?Lost
Yes$2 @ 29.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 30?Won
Yes$2 @ 60.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 6?Won
Yes$2 @ 12.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 1?Won
No$28 @ 80.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 13?Lost
Yes$6 @ 20.6¢
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?Won
No$0 @ 1.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$4 @ 10.0¢
Will San Diego FC vs. Los Angeles FC end in a draw?Lost
No$1 @ 89.0¢
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-03?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 6?Won
Yes$3 @ 42.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$216 @ 78.1¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 6?Won
No$4 @ 62.0¢
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 6?Lost
Yes$0 @ 17.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 10?Won
No$6 @ 90.0¢
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-05?Won
Yes$4 @ 71.0¢
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly BirrellLost
Kimberly Birrell$25 @ 45.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or higher on May 3?Won
Yes$1 @ 22.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18?Lost
Yes$1 @ 29.0¢
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to ScoreWon
Yes$24 @ 38.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 1?Lost
Yes$1 @ 23.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 5?Lost
Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5Lost
Under$5 @ 37.9¢
Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-05-07?Lost
No$7 @ 52.0¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$19 @ 87.0¢
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03?Won
No$8 @ 88.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 63.3¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Haras El Hodood SC vs. El Mokawloon El Arab SC: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$41 @ 48.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 4?Lost
Yes$1 @ 19.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 10?Won
Yes$2 @ 18.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15?Lost
Yes$7 @ 17.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	No	$105	86.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?	Crypto	No	$55	94.7¢
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	Politics	Yes	$23	33.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19?	Science	Yes	$14	26.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Tech	Yes	$10	90.3¢
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$6	80.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?	Politics	No	$6	89.0¢
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$6	72.0¢
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$6	80.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$6	70.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19?	Science	Yes	$5	20.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?	Politics	No	$4	68.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19?	Science	Yes	$3	15.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19?	Science	Yes	$3	6.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19?	Science	Yes	$3	10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19?	Science	Yes	$2	9.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19?	Science	Yes	$1	4.7¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
No$105 @ 86.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?Crypto
No$55 @ 94.7¢
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Politics
Yes$23 @ 33.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19?Science
Yes$14 @ 26.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Tech
Yes$10 @ 90.3¢
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$6 @ 80.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Politics
No$6 @ 89.0¢
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$6 @ 72.0¢
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$6 @ 80.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Politics
No$6 @ 70.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19?Science
Yes$5 @ 20.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Politics
No$4 @ 68.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19?Science
Yes$3 @ 15.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19?Science
Yes$3 @ 6.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 19?Science
Yes$3 @ 10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 19?Science
Yes$2 @ 9.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 19?Science
Yes$1 @ 4.7¢