0x490e…123a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x490e59912217dc88940c4f879115d67cd65a123a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.6pp

ROI

+7%

Win rate

48% @ 43.5¢

Brier

0.152

Resolved

1707

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	40% (203/508)	+25%	508
Science	14% (19/137)	-13%	137
Politics	63% (64/101)	-16%	101
Sports	46% (36/79)	-1%	79
Crypto	79% (38/48)	+8%	48
Business	79% (15/19)	+8%	19
Tech	67% (12/18)	-12%	18
Geopolitics	87% (13/15)	+28%	15
Economy	67% (4/6)	+3%	6

Other508 bets
Hit rate
40% (203/508)
ROI
+25%
Science137 bets
Hit rate
14% (19/137)
ROI
-13%
Politics101 bets
Hit rate
63% (64/101)
ROI
-16%
Sports79 bets
Hit rate
46% (36/79)
ROI
-1%
Crypto48 bets
Hit rate
79% (38/48)
ROI
+8%
Business19 bets
Hit rate
79% (15/19)
ROI
+8%
Tech18 bets
Hit rate
67% (12/18)
ROI
-12%
Geopolitics15 bets
Hit rate
87% (13/15)
ROI
+28%
Economy6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+3%

Track record

43% hit · 404/931

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on November 2?	Yes	$2	6.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on November 1?	Yes	$8	25.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$15	83.4¢	Won
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	$6	87.8¢	Won
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	$6	86.0¢	Won
Will Solana reach $140 in October?	No	$15	80.3¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in October?	No	$19	88.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?	No	$24	85.4¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in October?	No	$15	87.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?	No	$26	88.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	No	$27	86.9¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	No	$7	94.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	No	$6	86.0¢	Won
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	$6	77.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	$9	88.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$9	87.1¢	Won
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	$3	0.9¢	Lost
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Yes	$30	88.8¢	Won
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Yes	$13	85.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	$6	84.3¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?	No	$6	90.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	$18	86.3¢	Won
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in October?	No	$8	90.7¢	Won
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in October?	No	$6	88.0¢	Won
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $58 in October?	No	$8	91.0¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	$30	88.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in October?	No	$18	92.5¢	Won
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $195 in October?	No	$9	73.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $200 in October?	No	$3	91.8¢	Won
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $860 in October?	No	$21	83.1¢	Won
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in October?	No	$3	78.0¢	Won
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $880 in October?	No	$12	89.0¢	Won
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in October?	No	$10	90.8¢	Won
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in October?	No	$9	78.0¢	Lost
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in October?	No	$9	86.9¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 in October?	No	$1	65.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	No	$6	84.0¢	Lost
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?	No	$13	92.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	$18	95.2¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	$9	90.0¢	Won
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $620 in October?	No	$1	86.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 26?	Yes	$10	21.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on October 26?	Yes	$1	6.3¢	Lost
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$7	11.2¢	Lost
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$13	18.2¢	Lost
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	$13	95.4¢	Won
Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?	Yes	$6	67.0¢	Won
Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election?	Yes	$4	94.0¢	Won
Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Yes	$9	75.0¢	Lost

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on November 2?Lost
Yes$2 @ 6.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on November 1?Lost
Yes$8 @ 25.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$15 @ 83.4¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Won
No$6 @ 87.8¢
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Won
No$6 @ 86.0¢
Will Solana reach $140 in October?Won
No$15 @ 80.3¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,100 in October?Won
No$19 @ 88.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in October?Won
No$24 @ 85.4¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in October?Won
No$15 @ 87.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?Won
No$26 @ 88.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?Won
No$27 @ 86.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?Won
No$7 @ 94.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?Won
No$6 @ 86.0¢
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Won
Yes$6 @ 77.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?Won
Yes$9 @ 88.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Won
Yes$9 @ 87.1¢
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.9¢
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?Won
Yes$30 @ 88.8¢
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?Lost
Yes$13 @ 85.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 84.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in October?Won
No$6 @ 90.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?Won
No$18 @ 86.3¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in October?Won
No$8 @ 90.7¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in October?Won
No$6 @ 88.0¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $58 in October?Won
No$8 @ 91.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?Won
Yes$30 @ 88.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in October?Won
No$18 @ 92.5¢
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $195 in October?Won
No$9 @ 73.0¢
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (HIGH) $200 in October?Won
No$3 @ 91.8¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $860 in October?Won
No$21 @ 83.1¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in October?Won
No$3 @ 78.0¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $880 in October?Won
No$12 @ 89.0¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in October?Won
No$10 @ 90.8¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in October?Lost
No$9 @ 78.0¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in October?Lost
No$9 @ 86.9¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 in October?Lost
No$1 @ 65.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?Lost
No$6 @ 84.0¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?Lost
No$13 @ 92.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Won
Yes$18 @ 95.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Won
Yes$9 @ 90.0¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $620 in October?Lost
No$1 @ 86.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 26?Lost
Yes$10 @ 21.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on October 26?Lost
Yes$1 @ 6.3¢
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$7 @ 11.2¢
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Lost
Yes$13 @ 18.2¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Won
No$13 @ 95.4¢
Will Omar Aziz win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?Won
Yes$6 @ 67.0¢
Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election?Won
Yes$4 @ 94.0¢
Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?Lost
Yes$9 @ 75.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$88	71.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November?	Crypto	No	$74	85.6¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$54	95.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$26	71.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Politics	Yes	$21	85.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?	Other	No	$15	86.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in November?	Crypto	No	$15	82.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$13	21.8¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $42 in November?	Other	No	$12	86.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	Geopolitics	Yes	$9	88.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$9	84.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?	Other	No	$9	86.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in November?	Other	No	$6	90.4¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 2, 2026?	Tech	No	$6	92.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Politics	Yes	$6	91.8¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,500 in November?	Other	No	$6	89.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	Politics	Yes	$6	86.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on November 2?	Science	Yes	$2	6.6¢

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$88 @ 71.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November?Crypto
No$74 @ 85.6¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$54 @ 95.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$26 @ 71.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
Yes$21 @ 85.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in November?Other
No$15 @ 86.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in November?Crypto
No$15 @ 82.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?Politics
Yes$13 @ 21.8¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $42 in November?Other
No$12 @ 86.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?Geopolitics
Yes$9 @ 88.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$9 @ 84.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in November?Other
No$9 @ 86.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in November?Other
No$6 @ 90.4¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 2, 2026?Tech
No$6 @ 92.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Politics
Yes$6 @ 91.8¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,500 in November?Other
No$6 @ 89.4¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Politics
Yes$6 @ 86.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on November 2?Science
Yes$2 @ 6.6¢