← Smart money
0x4853…030a
SharpEdge
+17.3pp
ROI
+16%
Win rate
99% @ 82.0¢
Brier
0.040
Resolved
130
Avg size
$512
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 92% (12/13) | +16% | 13 |
| Politics | 100% (1/1) | +22% | 1 |
- Other13 bets
- Hit rate
- 92% (12/13)
- ROI
- +16%
- Politics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +22%
Track record
93% hit · 13/14| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | No | $30 | 86.0¢ | Won |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | $30 | 87.0¢ | Won |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | $150 | 88.0¢ | Won |
| Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | No | $205 | 80.7¢ | Won |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | $1000 | 85.5¢ | Won |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | $30 | 87.0¢ | Lost |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $65 | 65.0¢ | Won |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | $140 | 87.0¢ | Won |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | $200 | 87.7¢ | Won |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | $288 | 82.0¢ | Won |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | $63.7k | 86.2¢ | Won |
| Will Trump visit China by June 30? | Yes | $260 | 75.6¢ | Won |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | $300 | 84.0¢ | Won |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | $125 | 68.0¢ | Won |
- No$30 @ 86.0¢
- Yes$30 @ 87.0¢
- No$150 @ 88.0¢
- No$205 @ 80.7¢
- Yes$1000 @ 85.5¢
- No$30 @ 87.0¢
- Yes$65 @ 65.0¢
- Yes$140 @ 87.0¢
- Yes$200 @ 87.7¢
- Yes$288 @ 82.0¢
- Yes$63.7k @ 86.2¢
- Yes$260 @ 75.6¢
- Yes$300 @ 84.0¢
- Yes$125 @ 68.0¢
Recent trades
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