0x4818…bf0b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x48185887c8dc95de60ee89722f1d0ee7894cbf0b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-1.4pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

19% @ 20.6¢

Brier

0.117

Resolved

4430

Avg size

$69

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	38% (130/344)	+31%	344
Sports	30% (19/64)	-43%	64
Politics	33% (17/51)	-5%	51
Business	65% (20/31)	+12%	31
Crypto	53% (10/19)	+35%	19
Tech	31% (4/13)	-42%	13
Geopolitics	33% (2/6)	-8%	6
Science	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Economy	50% (1/2)	-55%	2
Culture	50% (1/2)	+12%	2

Other344 bets
Hit rate
38% (130/344)
ROI
+31%
Sports64 bets
Hit rate
30% (19/64)
ROI
-43%
Politics51 bets
Hit rate
33% (17/51)
ROI
-5%
Business31 bets
Hit rate
65% (20/31)
ROI
+12%
Crypto19 bets
Hit rate
53% (10/19)
ROI
+35%
Tech13 bets
Hit rate
31% (4/13)
ROI
-42%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-8%
Science3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-55%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+12%

Track record

38% hit · 204/535

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	$180	18.0¢	Lost
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	$90	90.0¢	Won
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	$1.3k	66.0¢	Lost
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $182 Week of October 19 2026?	No	$50	50.0¢	Won
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $172 in October?	No	$108	22.0¢	Lost
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $172 in October?	Yes	$88	78.1¢	Won
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of October 19 2026?	No	$4	44.0¢	Won
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	$332	55.8¢	Lost
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $180 Week of October 19 2026?	No	$26	26.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $137.50 Week of October 19 2026?	No	$3	57.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $137.50 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	$23	46.0¢	Lost
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of October 19 2026?	No	$3	57.0¢	Won
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $178 Week of October 19 2026?	No	$12	12.0¢	Won
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $72.50 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	$546	69.3¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	$116	61.1¢	Won
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 in October?	No	$313	32.0¢	Lost
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $640 in October?	No	$3	69.0¢	Lost
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $640 in October?	Yes	$255	26.3¢	Won
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in October?	No	$12	30.5¢	Lost
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $65 in October?	Yes	$76	42.0¢	Won
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $65 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	$202	36.8¢	Won
Will $ANSEM dip to $0.08 before 2027?	No	$22	27.6¢	Lost
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $375 in October?	Yes	$80	48.3¢	Won
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 in October?	Yes	$81	45.4¢	Won
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $176 in October?	No	$86	34.5¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	$234	94.6¢	Won
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $350 on October 19?	Yes	$16	80.0¢	Won
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $360 in October?	Yes	$309	76.6¢	Won
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	Yes	$542	85.1¢	Won
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-02-10?	Yes	$107	33.0¢	Lost
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?	No	$44	87.1¢	Won
Will Valve remove Mirage from the Map Pool?	Yes	$60	2.5¢	Lost
Will the US add less than 25k jobs in February?	No	$61	81.0¢	Lost
Will the US add less than 25k jobs in February?	Yes	$0	9.0¢	Won
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?	Yes	$84	21.0¢	Won
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	No	$13	65.0¢	Won
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	Yes	$6	31.0¢	Lost
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?	No	$0	1.1¢	Lost
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 5.0% by March 31?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2026-02-19?	No	$106	70.3¢	Won
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-15?	No	$41	41.0¢	Lost
Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-02-21?	Yes	$27	27.0¢	Lost
Will Pacifica launch a token by March 31 2026?	Yes	$4	1.0¢	Lost
Will Watford FC win on 2026-02-14?	No	$409	58.0¢	Won
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$137	0.4¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on October 12?	Yes	$190	33.0¢	Won
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$30	10.4¢	Lost
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$250	11.9¢	Lost
Will Swansea City AFC vs. Charlton Athletic FC end in a draw?	Yes	$32	25.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2.8k	5.4¢	Lost

Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Lost
Yes$180 @ 18.0¢
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Won
No$90 @ 90.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ETLost
Up$1.3k @ 66.0¢
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $182 Week of October 19 2026?Won
No$50 @ 50.0¢
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $172 in October?Lost
No$108 @ 22.0¢
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $172 in October?Won
Yes$88 @ 78.1¢
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of October 19 2026?Won
No$4 @ 44.0¢
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of October 19 2026?Lost
Yes$332 @ 55.8¢
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $180 Week of October 19 2026?Won
No$26 @ 26.0¢
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $137.50 Week of October 19 2026?Won
No$3 @ 57.0¢
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $137.50 Week of October 19 2026?Lost
Yes$23 @ 46.0¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of October 19 2026?Won
No$3 @ 57.0¢
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $178 Week of October 19 2026?Won
No$12 @ 12.0¢
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $72.50 Week of October 19 2026?Lost
Yes$546 @ 69.3¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 Week of October 19 2026?Won
Yes$116 @ 61.1¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $760 in October?Lost
No$313 @ 32.0¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $640 in October?Lost
No$3 @ 69.0¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $640 in October?Won
Yes$255 @ 26.3¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in October?Lost
No$12 @ 30.5¢
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $65 in October?Won
Yes$76 @ 42.0¢
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $65 Week of October 19 2026?Won
Yes$202 @ 36.8¢
Will $ANSEM dip to $0.08 before 2027?Lost
No$22 @ 27.6¢
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $375 in October?Won
Yes$80 @ 48.3¢
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 in October?Won
Yes$81 @ 45.4¢
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $176 in October?Lost
No$86 @ 34.5¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 Week of October 19 2026?Won
Yes$234 @ 94.6¢
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $350 on October 19?Won
Yes$16 @ 80.0¢
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $360 in October?Won
Yes$309 @ 76.6¢
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?Won
Yes$542 @ 85.1¢
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-02-10?Lost
Yes$107 @ 33.0¢
Will Han Jun-ho win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?Won
No$44 @ 87.1¢
Will Valve remove Mirage from the Map Pool?Lost
Yes$60 @ 2.5¢
Will the US add less than 25k jobs in February?Lost
No$61 @ 81.0¢
Will the US add less than 25k jobs in February?Won
Yes$0 @ 9.0¢
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10?Won
Yes$84 @ 21.0¢
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?Won
No$13 @ 65.0¢
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?Lost
Yes$6 @ 31.0¢
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?Lost
No$0 @ 1.1¢
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 5.0% by March 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2026-02-19?Won
No$106 @ 70.3¢
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-15?Lost
No$41 @ 41.0¢
Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-02-21?Lost
Yes$27 @ 27.0¢
Will Pacifica launch a token by March 31 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.0¢
Will Watford FC win on 2026-02-14?Won
No$409 @ 58.0¢
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$137 @ 0.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on October 12?Won
Yes$190 @ 33.0¢
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$30 @ 10.4¢
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
Yes$250 @ 11.9¢
Will Swansea City AFC vs. Charlton Athletic FC end in a draw?Lost
Yes$32 @ 25.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2.8k @ 5.4¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Other	No	$71.2k	92.4¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	Other	No	$23.9k	79.7¢
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$3.8k	61.3¢
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$3.3k	70.8¢
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$2.9k	68.6¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$2.7k	88.7¢
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$2.4k	39.2¢
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$2.0k	87.3¢
Trump out as President before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.5k	83.5¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	—	Up	$1.3k	66.0¢
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?	Economy	No	$968	42.4¢
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$743	67.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in October?	Business	No	$667	84.6¢
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	Politics	No	$646	68.9¢
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$554	69.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 in October?	Business	No	$543	49.1¢
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?	Crypto	No	$535	71.2¢
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$470	7.5¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$462	40.6¢
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $4.50T and $5.00T at the end of 2026?	Business	No	$452	79.7¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$450	52.8¢
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?	Crypto	$60	$446	31.1¢
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $6.00T and $6.50T at the end of 2026?	Business	No	$442	78.7¢
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$425	1.6¢
Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $2.50T and $3.00T at the end of 2026?	Business	Yes	$402	39.4¢
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $140 in October?	Business	Yes	$396	48.2¢
Will MegaETH hit $0.10 by March 31, 2027?	Crypto	No	$385	73.7¢
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Crypto	Yes	$381	32.6¢
Will XRP hit $2 by December 31, 2027?	Crypto	No	$371	38.2¢
Will MegaETH hit $0.10 by June 30, 2027?	Crypto	No	$369	64.3¢

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?Other
No$71.2k @ 92.4¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?Other
No$23.9k @ 79.7¢
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$3.8k @ 61.3¢
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?Crypto
No$3.3k @ 70.8¢
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$2.9k @ 68.6¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$2.7k @ 88.7¢
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$2.4k @ 39.2¢
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?Crypto
No$2.0k @ 87.3¢
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics
No$1.5k @ 83.5¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET—
Up$1.3k @ 66.0¢
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Economy
No$968 @ 42.4¢
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?Crypto
No$743 @ 67.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in October?Business
No$667 @ 84.6¢
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?Politics
No$646 @ 68.9¢
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?Crypto
No$554 @ 69.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 in October?Business
No$543 @ 49.1¢
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027?Crypto
No$535 @ 71.2¢
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?Crypto
No$470 @ 7.5¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$462 @ 40.6¢
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $4.50T and $5.00T at the end of 2026?Business
No$452 @ 79.7¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$450 @ 52.8¢
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?Crypto
$60$446 @ 31.1¢
Will Nvidia’s market capitalization be between $6.00T and $6.50T at the end of 2026?Business
No$442 @ 78.7¢
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$425 @ 1.6¢
Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $2.50T and $3.00T at the end of 2026?Business
Yes$402 @ 39.4¢
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $140 in October?Business
Yes$396 @ 48.2¢
Will MegaETH hit $0.10 by March 31, 2027?Crypto
No$385 @ 73.7¢
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?Crypto
Yes$381 @ 32.6¢
Will XRP hit $2 by December 31, 2027?Crypto
No$371 @ 38.2¢
Will MegaETH hit $0.10 by June 30, 2027?Crypto
No$369 @ 64.3¢