0x4807…70ab

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics21 bets

  Hit rate

  48% (10/21)

  ROI

  +1%

• Other10 bets

  Hit rate

  70% (7/10)

  ROI

  +57%

• Tech8 bets

  Hit rate

  63% (5/8)

  ROI

  +3%

• Geopolitics2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  +4%

• Culture2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  -6%

• Sports1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?Lost
  No$42 @ 1.2¢
• Curfew in a major French city by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$45 @ 75.0¢
• Curfew in a major French city by October 31, 2026?Lost
  No$382 @ 84.9¢
• Curfew in a major French city by November 15, 2026?Lost
  No$113 @ 75.7¢
• Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?Lost
  No$207 @ 88.4¢
• Paris curfew by October 19?Won
  Yes$417 @ 25.9¢
• Paris curfew by October 21?Won
  Yes$154 @ 30.0¢
• Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?Won
  Yes$320 @ 48.7¢
• CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?Won
  Yes$426 @ 64.1¢
• Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Won
  No$3.7k @ 61.0¢
• Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?Lost
  Yes$2.7k @ 33.3¢
• Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Won
  No$98 @ 47.0¢
• Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?Lost
  Yes$275 @ 32.3¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
  No$1.6k @ 44.0¢
• US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
  Yes$3.9k @ 36.3¢
• Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Won
  Yes$337 @ 87.0¢
• Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?Won
  No$562 @ 57.5¢
• Kristi Noem divorce by August 31?Won
  Yes$1.8k @ 69.2¢
• Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?Won
  Yes$483 @ 79.9¢
• Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$265 @ 74.9¢
• Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?Won
  No$478 @ 87.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 3, 2026?Lost
  No$5 @ 35.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on September 3, 2026?Won
  Yes$175 @ 47.4¢
• Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 21, 2026?Won
  Yes$346 @ 78.0¢
• Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?Won
  No$1.3k @ 90.0¢
• Will Trump praise Xi Jinping in August?Won
  Yes$6.4k @ 69.4¢
• Will Trump meet with Javier Milei in September 2026?Won
  Yes$7.9k @ 74.7¢
• Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Lost
  Yes$3.2k @ 46.8¢
• Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?Won
  No$1.2k @ 64.9¢
• Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?Lost
  No$839 @ 84.0¢
• Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?Lost
  No$338 @ 5.0¢
• Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?Won
  Yes$4.2k @ 85.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?Won
  No$416 @ 51.5¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?Lost
  Yes$605 @ 21.1¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Won
  No$85 @ 67.7¢
• Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Lost
  No$1.9k @ 6.8¢
• Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Won
  No$2.0k @ 54.2¢
• Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$139 @ 44.6¢
• Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1?Lost
  Yes$72 @ 4.0¢
• Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?Won
  Yes$350 @ 81.8¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by September 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 8.4¢
• Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15?Lost
  No$241 @ 81.4¢
• Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
  Yes$440 @ 83.0¢
• CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by October 31?Lost
  No$127 @ 18.0¢

Current positions

• Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Sports
  No$3.8k @ 83.2¢
• Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz by October 31?Politics
  Yes$1.7k @ 94.1¢
• Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen by October 31?Politics
  Yes$628 @ 90.9¢
• Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Tech
  Yes$569 @ 33.1¢
• Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?Tech
  No$449 @ 83.9¢
• Paris curfew by October 19?Politics
  Yes$417 @ 25.9¢
• Curfew in a major French city by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$382 @ 84.9¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly praise Flávio Bolsonaro by October 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$373 @ 90.4¢
• Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026?Tech
  No$355 @ 84.4¢
• France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$348 @ 82.2¢
• Pakistan military action against Yemen by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$209 @ 84.5¢
• Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?Politics
  No$207 @ 88.4¢
• Paris curfew by October 21?Politics
  Yes$154 @ 30.0¢
• Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Tech
  No$149 @ 70.0¢
• Will Drake release a new album by December 31?Culture
  No$123 @ 52.9¢
• Curfew in a major French city by November 15, 2026?Politics
  No$113 @ 75.7¢
• Curfew in a major French city by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$45 @ 75.0¢
• Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?Tech
  No$42 @ 1.2¢
• Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?Politics
  No$38 @ 37.0¢
• Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 26?Geopolitics
  No$29 @ 84.0¢
• Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 27?Geopolitics
  No$18 @ 85.0¢
• Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on September 20?Geopolitics
  No$17 @ 82.0¢