0x476c…ce52

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x476c1e85d5798b6d6e28dea0b34306017eadce52
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.8pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

44% @ 40.6¢

Brier

0.169

Resolved

4503

Avg size

$14

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (641/1348)	+17%	1348
Sports	47% (176/371)	+0%	371
Business	44% (44/100)	-6%	100
Crypto	61% (23/38)	+27%	38
Geopolitics	63% (5/8)	-3%	8
Economy	14% (1/7)	-62%	7
Politics	20% (1/5)	-88%	5

Other1348 bets
Hit rate
48% (641/1348)
ROI
+17%
Sports371 bets
Hit rate
47% (176/371)
ROI
+0%
Business100 bets
Hit rate
44% (44/100)
ROI
-6%
Crypto38 bets
Hit rate
61% (23/38)
ROI
+27%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
63% (5/8)
ROI
-3%
Economy7 bets
Hit rate
14% (1/7)
ROI
-62%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-88%

Track record

47% hit · 891/1877

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 National League Championship Series?	No	$44	88.0¢	Won
Will Ecuador be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$40	76.3¢	Won
Will Ecuador be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	16.9¢	Lost
Will Australia be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$53	86.5¢	Won
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	No	$19	21.5¢	Lost
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$110	74.6¢	Won
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of February 2 above $325?	Yes	$25	74.0¢	Lost
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?	Yes	$65	45.7¢	Won
Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$11	24.0¢	Lost
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in June?	No	$22	85.0¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?	No	$17	13.8¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?	Yes	$16	10.4¢	Won
Will Solana reach $90 in May?	Yes	$35	62.0¢	Won
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$33	8.0¢	Lost
Will Microsoft dip to $450 in February?	No	$23	3.3¢	Lost
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 236.5	Under	$7	54.8¢	Won
Will Lighter dip to $1.5 before 2027?	Yes	$141	73.1¢	Won
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	No	$6	75.0¢	Lost
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $182 end of January?	No	$48	39.4¢	Won
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 23 above $320?	Yes	$7	7.0¢	Lost
Will Apple dip to $256 in January?	Yes	$51	79.0¢	Won
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$150	68.1¢	Won
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$74	45.7¢	Lost
Will Algeria be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$80	82.9¢	Won
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of June 8 2026?	No	$46	84.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$11	73.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	$28	37.0¢	Lost
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $170 end of March?	No	$2	6.9¢	Lost
Will Solana reach $90 by December 31, 2026?	No	$46	34.7¢	Lost
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$26	69.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 18 above $245?	No	$19	85.0¢	Won
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 8 2026?	No	$16	70.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 28?	Yes	$20	1.9¢	Lost
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 in June?	Yes	$26	57.5¢	Won
Will Si Woo Kim finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson?	Yes	$15	62.3¢	Won
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $200 in September?	No	$50	68.0¢	Won
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on April 12?	No	$40	18.0¢	Lost
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of January?	No	$4	70.0¢	Lost
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of January?	Yes	$55	27.0¢	Won
Spread: High Point Panthers (-6.5)	High Point Panthers	$45	41.8¢	Won
Spread: High Point Panthers (-6.5)	Winthrop Eagles	$9	43.5¢	Lost
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $100 end of January?	No	$41	81.0¢	Won
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $100 end of January?	Yes	$16	18.0¢	Lost
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	No	$36	32.4¢	Lost
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?	Yes	$6	6.7¢	Won
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	$66	56.9¢	Won
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$27	43.0¢	Lost
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$8	77.0¢	Won
Will Austria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	No	$18	81.0¢	Won
Will Perfectly a Strangeness win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$1	10.4¢	Lost

Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 National League Championship Series?Won
No$44 @ 88.0¢
Will Ecuador be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$40 @ 76.3¢
Will Ecuador be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$10 @ 16.9¢
Will Australia be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$53 @ 86.5¢
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?Lost
No$19 @ 21.5¢
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$110 @ 74.6¢
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of February 2 above $325?Lost
Yes$25 @ 74.0¢
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Won
Yes$65 @ 45.7¢
Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$11 @ 24.0¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in June?Won
No$22 @ 85.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?Lost
No$17 @ 13.8¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?Won
Yes$16 @ 10.4¢
Will Solana reach $90 in May?Won
Yes$35 @ 62.0¢
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$33 @ 8.0¢
Will Microsoft dip to $450 in February?Lost
No$23 @ 3.3¢
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 236.5Won
Under$7 @ 54.8¢
Will Lighter dip to $1.5 before 2027?Won
Yes$141 @ 73.1¢
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?Lost
No$6 @ 75.0¢
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $182 end of January?Won
No$48 @ 39.4¢
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 23 above $320?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
Will Apple dip to $256 in January?Won
Yes$51 @ 79.0¢
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$150 @ 68.1¢
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$74 @ 45.7¢
Will Algeria be the highest-scoring team in Group J during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$80 @ 82.9¢
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of June 8 2026?Lost
No$46 @ 84.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$11 @ 73.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Lost
Yes$28 @ 37.0¢
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $170 end of March?Lost
No$2 @ 6.9¢
Will Solana reach $90 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$46 @ 34.7¢
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$26 @ 69.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 18 above $245?Won
No$19 @ 85.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 8 2026?Lost
No$16 @ 70.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 28?Lost
Yes$20 @ 1.9¢
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 in June?Won
Yes$26 @ 57.5¢
Will Si Woo Kim finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson?Won
Yes$15 @ 62.3¢
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $200 in September?Won
No$50 @ 68.0¢
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on April 12?Lost
No$40 @ 18.0¢
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of January?Lost
No$4 @ 70.0¢
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of January?Won
Yes$55 @ 27.0¢
Spread: High Point Panthers (-6.5)Won
High Point Panthers$45 @ 41.8¢
Spread: High Point Panthers (-6.5)Lost
Winthrop Eagles$9 @ 43.5¢
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $100 end of January?Won
No$41 @ 81.0¢
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $100 end of January?Lost
Yes$16 @ 18.0¢
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?Lost
No$36 @ 32.4¢
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?Won
Yes$6 @ 6.7¢
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Won
No$66 @ 56.9¢
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$27 @ 43.0¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina be the worst-placed European nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$8 @ 77.0¢
Will Austria be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?Won
No$18 @ 81.0¢
Will Perfectly a Strangeness win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Bodø/Glimt reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?	Sports	No	$335	76.2¢
Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$310	85.8¢
Will XRP reach $3.60 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$284	85.8¢
Will Illinois Make the 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship Game?	Sports	No	$247	93.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?	Other	No	$211	81.5¢
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$166	66.7¢
Will Auburn Make the 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship Game?	Sports	No	$159	92.9¢
Will Mississippi State have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	—	O 4.5	$158	90.0¢
Will Dogecoin reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$155	68.7¢
Will Rutgers have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	—	U 4.5	$153	76.7¢
Will BNB dip to $400 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$153	61.1¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	Other	No	$140	70.3¢
Will Cincinnati (CFB) have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	Sports	No	$137	77.0¢
Will XRP dip to $0.60 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$136	68.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?	Other	No	$133	94.3¢
Will Solana dip to $30 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$124	87.1¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	No	$123	82.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$122	66.9¢
Will Texas Tech be a top 4 seed in the 2027 College Football Playoffs?	Sports	No	$121	67.6¢
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$121	87.5¢
Will Caleb Williams win the 2026 NFL MVP?	Sports	No	$119	87.8¢
Will Florida State have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	Sports	No	$118	72.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?	Other	Yes	$117	29.8¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$115	69.3¢
Will Virginia Tech Make the 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship Game?	Sports	No	$113	94.0¢
Will Colorado State have more than 3.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	Sports	Yes	$112	72.0¢
Will Alabama Make the 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship Game?	Sports	No	$107	82.1¢
Will BNB dip to $300 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$106	82.6¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$106	65.5¢
Will Ohio State have more than 10.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	—	U 10.5	$105	62.3¢

Will Bodø/Glimt reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League semifinal?Sports
No$335 @ 76.2¢
Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$310 @ 85.8¢
Will XRP reach $3.60 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$284 @ 85.8¢
Will Illinois Make the 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship Game?Sports
No$247 @ 93.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?Other
No$211 @ 81.5¢
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$166 @ 66.7¢
Will Auburn Make the 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship Game?Sports
No$159 @ 92.9¢
Will Mississippi State have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?—
O 4.5$158 @ 90.0¢
Will Dogecoin reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$155 @ 68.7¢
Will Rutgers have more than 4.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?—
U 4.5$153 @ 76.7¢
Will BNB dip to $400 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$153 @ 61.1¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?Other
No$140 @ 70.3¢
Will Cincinnati (CFB) have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?Sports
No$137 @ 77.0¢
Will XRP dip to $0.60 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$136 @ 68.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December?Other
No$133 @ 94.3¢
Will Solana dip to $30 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$124 @ 87.1¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
No$123 @ 82.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$122 @ 66.9¢
Will Texas Tech be a top 4 seed in the 2027 College Football Playoffs?Sports
No$121 @ 67.6¢
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$121 @ 87.5¢
Will Caleb Williams win the 2026 NFL MVP?Sports
No$119 @ 87.8¢
Will Florida State have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?Sports
No$118 @ 72.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?Other
Yes$117 @ 29.8¢
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Geopolitics
No$115 @ 69.3¢
Will Virginia Tech Make the 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship Game?Sports
No$113 @ 94.0¢
Will Colorado State have more than 3.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?Sports
Yes$112 @ 72.0¢
Will Alabama Make the 2027 College Football Playoff National Championship Game?Sports
No$107 @ 82.1¢
Will BNB dip to $300 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$106 @ 82.6¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$106 @ 65.5¢
Will Ohio State have more than 10.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?—
U 10.5$105 @ 62.3¢