0x45d3…eda0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x45d3339d705d63eebff0d2d1eb1c2fd5bb55eda0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+16.2pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

92% @ 75.3¢

Brier

0.108

Resolved

Avg size

$23

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	100% (17/17)	+25%	17
Politics	88% (7/8)	+55%	8
Geopolitics	67% (2/3)	-27%	3
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other17 bets
Hit rate
100% (17/17)
ROI
+25%
Politics8 bets
Hit rate
88% (7/8)
ROI
+55%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-27%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

90% hit · 26/29

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	No	$9	88.2¢	Won
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$3	74.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	No	$38	82.9¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?	Yes	$17	87.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$44	48.5¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$9	87.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	No	$103	79.4¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	$10	72.0¢	Won
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$94	9.1¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?	Yes	$17	83.5¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?	No	$9	87.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?	No	$28	86.8¢	Won
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	$20	88.7¢	Won
Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	$44	45.4¢	Won
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?	No	$8	78.0¢	Won
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?	No	$15	87.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 7?	Yes	$10	72.0¢	Won
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	No	$9	88.0¢	Won
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?	No	$713	84.2¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?	No	$9	88.0¢	Won
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?	No	$9	87.0¢	Won
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 21?	No	$7	46.0¢	Won
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?	No	$8	83.0¢	Won
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	Yes	$53	87.5¢	Won
Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by March 31?	No	$4	89.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?	No	$7	70.0¢	Won
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	Yes	$1	3.7¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?	Yes	$10	77.2¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?	No	$81	80.6¢	Won

Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Won
No$9 @ 88.2¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$3 @ 74.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$38 @ 82.9¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?Won
Yes$17 @ 87.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$44 @ 48.5¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$9 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Won
No$103 @ 79.4¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
No$10 @ 72.0¢
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$94 @ 9.1¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Won
Yes$17 @ 83.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 87.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 16?Won
No$28 @ 86.8¢
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Won
No$20 @ 88.7¢
Will USD be between 2.1M and 2.2M Iranian rials on August 31?Won
Yes$44 @ 45.4¢
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?Won
No$8 @ 78.0¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?Won
No$15 @ 87.0¢
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 7?Won
Yes$10 @ 72.0¢
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Won
No$9 @ 88.0¢
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?Won
No$713 @ 84.2¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?Won
No$9 @ 88.0¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?Won
No$9 @ 87.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 21?Won
No$7 @ 46.0¢
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 83.0¢
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?Won
Yes$53 @ 87.5¢
Will USD reach 1.6M Iranian rials by March 31?Won
No$4 @ 89.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?Won
No$7 @ 70.0¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.7¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?Won
Yes$10 @ 77.2¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?Won
No$81 @ 80.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Esmail Qaani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$19	93.2¢
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$18	89.8¢
Will USD be less than 1.7M Iranian rials on September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$10	98.7¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	No	$10	95.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$9	91.0¢
Will Iran target Bahrain by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$7	70.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4	35.1¢

Will Esmail Qaani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$19 @ 93.2¢
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$18 @ 89.8¢
Will USD be less than 1.7M Iranian rials on September 30?Geopolitics
No$10 @ 98.7¢
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
No$10 @ 95.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$9 @ 91.0¢
Will Iran target Bahrain by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$7 @ 70.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$4 @ 35.1¢