0x4586…c4be

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4586aaf9156a535423473672df75606d1da4c4be
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.2pp

ROI

+33%

Win rate

75% @ 62.3¢

Brier

0.079

Resolved

326

Avg size

$251

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	76% (19/25)	+41%	25
Politics	100% (6/6)	+22%	6
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+18%	2
Crypto	100% (2/2)	+31%	2
Tech	100% (1/1)	+16%	1
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other25 bets
Hit rate
76% (19/25)
ROI
+41%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
100% (6/6)
ROI
+22%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+18%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+31%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+16%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

81% hit · 30/37

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?	No	$210	86.4¢	Won
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	No	$2.9k	84.1¢	Won
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	No	$2.1k	81.8¢	Won
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	$18	37.0¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$938	61.2¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?	Yes	$3.8k	25.5¢	Won
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the February decision?	Yes	$395	13.2¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$4	84.4¢	Won
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-28?	Yes	$588	52.6¢	Won
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the February decision?	No	$114	11.9¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$1.4k	86.5¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$3.0k	45.2¢	Won
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?	Yes	$3.7k	70.3¢	Won
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	No	$534	89.0¢	Lost
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	No	$416	82.5¢	Won
Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	Yes	$29	13.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 23 above $185?	Yes	$22	68.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	$4.3k	85.6¢	Won
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?	No	$247	79.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 23 above $215?	No	$1.2k	88.8¢	Won
Will Meta (META) close above $600 end of January?	Yes	$262	74.1¢	Won
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?	No	$9.4k	72.1¢	Won
Netanyahu out by March 31?	No	$1.3k	81.0¢	Won
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?	No	$1.6k	85.2¢	Won
Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	$3.8k	82.3¢	Won
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of February 2 above $245?	No	$5.8k	83.4¢	Won
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?	No	$1.2k	61.2¢	Won
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.9k	86.1¢	Won
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?	No	$987	81.9¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?	No	$880	88.0¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy attend the World Economic Forum?	No	$4.9k	38.1¢	Lost
Will Zelenskyy attend the World Economic Forum?	Yes	$508	82.6¢	Won
Will Consensys IPO by March 31 2026?	No	$104	85.5¢	Won
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?	No	$22.0k	82.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16?	No	$810	81.0¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$55	6.6¢	Lost
Will Consensys IPO by June 30 2026?	No	$753	75.0¢	Won

Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$210 @ 86.4¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$2.9k @ 84.1¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$2.1k @ 81.8¢
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Lost
Yes$18 @ 37.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$938 @ 61.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?Won
Yes$3.8k @ 25.5¢
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the February decision?Lost
Yes$395 @ 13.2¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$4 @ 84.4¢
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-28?Won
Yes$588 @ 52.6¢
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the February decision?Lost
No$114 @ 11.9¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$1.4k @ 86.5¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$3.0k @ 45.2¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 10, 2026?Won
Yes$3.7k @ 70.3¢
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?Lost
No$534 @ 89.0¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Won
No$416 @ 82.5¢
Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$29 @ 13.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 23 above $185?Lost
Yes$22 @ 68.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Won
No$4.3k @ 85.6¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?Won
No$247 @ 79.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 23 above $215?Won
No$1.2k @ 88.8¢
Will Meta (META) close above $600 end of January?Won
Yes$262 @ 74.1¢
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?Won
No$9.4k @ 72.1¢
Netanyahu out by March 31?Won
No$1.3k @ 81.0¢
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?Won
No$1.6k @ 85.2¢
Netanyahu out by June 30?Won
No$3.8k @ 82.3¢
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of February 2 above $245?Won
No$5.8k @ 83.4¢
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$1.2k @ 61.2¢
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 86.1¢
Will another country strike Iran by March 7?Won
No$987 @ 81.9¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?Won
No$880 @ 88.0¢
Will Zelenskyy attend the World Economic Forum?Lost
No$4.9k @ 38.1¢
Will Zelenskyy attend the World Economic Forum?Won
Yes$508 @ 82.6¢
Will Consensys IPO by March 31 2026?Won
No$104 @ 85.5¢
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?Won
No$22.0k @ 82.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16?Won
No$810 @ 81.0¢
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$55 @ 6.6¢
Will Consensys IPO by June 30 2026?Won
No$753 @ 75.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?	Politics	No	$6.5k	75.1¢
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Politics	Yes	$3.4k	91.5¢
Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.7k	59.2¢
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by December 31?	Politics	No	$1.6k	76.7¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.4k	65.8¢
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	Tech	Anthropic	$1.1k	88.8¢
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	64.0¢
Will RZP-Zehut win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	No	$454	86.8¢
Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?	Politics	No	$421	62.7¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win 7-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	No	$391	91.9¢
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?	Politics	Yes	$275	81.0¢
Will exactly 4 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.9¢
Will at least 5 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.1¢
Will exactly 3 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?	Politics	Yes	$0	2.4¢

Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?Politics
No$6.5k @ 75.1¢
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?Politics
Yes$3.4k @ 91.5¢
Vote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?Politics
No$1.7k @ 59.2¢
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by December 31?Politics
No$1.6k @ 76.7¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?Politics
No$1.4k @ 65.8¢
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?Tech
Anthropic$1.1k @ 88.8¢
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 64.0¢
Will RZP-Zehut win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
No$454 @ 86.8¢
Vote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?Politics
No$421 @ 62.7¢
Will Amcha Yisrael win 7-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
No$391 @ 91.9¢
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?Politics
Yes$275 @ 81.0¢
Will exactly 4 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.9¢
Will at least 5 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will exactly 3 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?Politics
Yes$0 @ 2.4¢