0x4526…7a45

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4526964246242015bfa78c294033565be6797a45
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.8pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

67% @ 61.2¢

Brier

0.138

Resolved

4292

Avg size

$108

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	69% (503/728)	+11%	728
Politics	51% (47/92)	+12%	92
Geopolitics	52% (14/27)	+10%	27
Sports	47% (9/19)	-0%	19
Tech	33% (1/3)	-50%	3
Crypto	100% (2/2)	+24%	2
Science	100% (1/1)	+43%	1

Other728 bets
Hit rate
69% (503/728)
ROI
+11%
Politics92 bets
Hit rate
51% (47/92)
ROI
+12%
Geopolitics27 bets
Hit rate
52% (14/27)
ROI
+10%
Sports19 bets
Hit rate
47% (9/19)
ROI
-0%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-50%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+24%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+43%

Track record

66% hit · 577/872

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will JD Vance say "JFK" during the Joe Rogan podcast?	No	$310	46.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Native American" during New Mexico rally on October 31?	Yes	$353	39.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire before July?	No	$870	87.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "god" 4 or more times during Pittsburgh rally on Nov 4?	No	$7	41.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "god" 4 or more times during Pittsburgh rally on Nov 4?	Yes	$210	75.0¢	Won
Will Vance say "Aurora" during Detroit rally on October 8?	No	$60	81.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$777	29.6¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$3.6k	57.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during Michigan rally on October 18?	Yes	$196	49.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Kamalanomics" during Georgia speech on Oct 15?	No	$1.3k	69.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "GM" or "General Motors" during Michigan rally on October 25?	Yes	$133	30.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20?	No	$230	46.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "tampon" during California rally on October 12?	No	$30	60.0¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$84	16.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Israel" during Pennsylvania rally on October 19?	No	$164	31.1¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$881	88.1¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hamas" during Pennsylvania rally on October 19?	No	$741	86.2¢	Won
Will Trump say "missile defense shield" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?	Yes	$195	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Saudi Arabia" during Macon, GA rally?	Yes	$192	53.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "tax" 30 or more times during Arizona rally on October 13?	No	$420	84.0¢	Won
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$467	77.4¢	Won
Will Trump say "sanctuary city" during Pennsylvania rally on October 26?	No	$227	21.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "frack" or "fracking" 4 or more times during Michigan rally on October 25?	Yes	$954	74.6¢	Won
Will Vance say "mamaw" during Detroit rally on October 8?	No	$647	75.1¢	Lost
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$90	22.5¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$3.6k	88.8¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$222	14.8¢	Lost
Will Kamala say "won" or "win" in her speech after the election is called?	Yes	$405	81.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "phone app" during Pennsylvania rally?	Yes	$266	66.5¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$387	38.7¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$95	83.6¢	Won
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	No	$320	32.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump's tie be another color?	Yes	$25	87.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$100	25.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Pocahontas" during Nevada rally on Oct 31?	Yes	$210	88.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "NYPD" during New York rally on October 27?	Yes	$615	82.0¢	Lost
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?	No	$340	68.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "god" 4 or more during Greensboro, NC rally?	Yes	$925	72.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Frack" of "Fracking" 8 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 29?	Yes	$240	51.1¢	Won
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during Arizona rally on October 13?	Yes	$423	63.3¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$72	19.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "turning point" during Georgia rally on October 23?	Yes	$1.3k	72.1¢	Won
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	$19	0.9¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$3	24.1¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$215	88.0¢	Won
Will Tim Walz say "Trump" 20 or more times during the debate?	Yes	$219	68.4¢	Won
Will Trump say "Garbage" during Macon, GA rally?	Yes	$699	77.7¢	Won
Will Gracie Abrams perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	No	$1.9k	84.1¢	Won
Will Trump say "frack" or "fracking" 3 or more times during Las Vegas rally on October 24?	Yes	$1.1k	85.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "Biden" 10 or more times during Macon, GA rally?	No	$21	83.0¢	Won

Will JD Vance say "JFK" during the Joe Rogan podcast?Won
No$310 @ 46.3¢
Will Trump say "Native American" during New Mexico rally on October 31?Lost
Yes$353 @ 39.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire before July? Won
No$870 @ 87.0¢
Will Trump say "god" 4 or more times during Pittsburgh rally on Nov 4?Lost
No$7 @ 41.0¢
Will Trump say "god" 4 or more times during Pittsburgh rally on Nov 4?Won
Yes$210 @ 75.0¢
Will Vance say "Aurora" during Detroit rally on October 8?Won
No$60 @ 81.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$777 @ 29.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$3.6k @ 57.7¢
Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during Michigan rally on October 18?Lost
Yes$196 @ 49.0¢
Will Trump say "Kamalanomics" during Georgia speech on Oct 15?Won
No$1.3k @ 69.3¢
Will Trump say "GM" or "General Motors" during Michigan rally on October 25?Lost
Yes$133 @ 30.9¢
Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20?Lost
No$230 @ 46.0¢
Will Trump say "tampon" during California rally on October 12?Won
No$30 @ 60.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$84 @ 16.8¢
Will Trump say "Israel" during Pennsylvania rally on October 19?Lost
No$164 @ 31.1¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$881 @ 88.1¢
Will Trump say "Hamas" during Pennsylvania rally on October 19?Won
No$741 @ 86.2¢
Will Trump say "missile defense shield" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?Won
Yes$195 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump say "Saudi Arabia" during Macon, GA rally?Won
Yes$192 @ 53.6¢
Will Trump say "tax" 30 or more times during Arizona rally on October 13?Won
No$420 @ 84.0¢
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
No$467 @ 77.4¢
Will Trump say "sanctuary city" during Pennsylvania rally on October 26?Lost
No$227 @ 21.2¢
Will Trump say "frack" or "fracking" 4 or more times during Michigan rally on October 25?Won
Yes$954 @ 74.6¢
Will Vance say "mamaw" during Detroit rally on October 8?Lost
No$647 @ 75.1¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$90 @ 22.5¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$3.6k @ 88.8¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$222 @ 14.8¢
Will Kamala say "won" or "win" in her speech after the election is called?Won
Yes$405 @ 81.0¢
Will Trump say "phone app" during Pennsylvania rally?Lost
Yes$266 @ 66.5¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$387 @ 38.7¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$95 @ 83.6¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Lost
No$320 @ 32.0¢
Will Donald Trump's tie be another color?Won
Yes$25 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 25.0¢
Will Trump say "Pocahontas" during Nevada rally on Oct 31?Won
Yes$210 @ 88.6¢
Will Trump say "NYPD" during New York rally on October 27?Lost
Yes$615 @ 82.0¢
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?Lost
No$340 @ 68.0¢
Will Trump say "god" 4 or more during Greensboro, NC rally?Won
Yes$925 @ 72.0¢
Will Trump say "Frack" of "Fracking" 8 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 29?Won
Yes$240 @ 51.1¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during Arizona rally on October 13?Lost
Yes$423 @ 63.3¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$72 @ 19.0¢
Will Trump say "turning point" during Georgia rally on October 23?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 72.1¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Lost
No$19 @ 0.9¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 24.1¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$215 @ 88.0¢
Will Tim Walz say "Trump" 20 or more times during the debate?Won
Yes$219 @ 68.4¢
Will Trump say "Garbage" during Macon, GA rally?Won
Yes$699 @ 77.7¢
Will Gracie Abrams perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?Won
No$1.9k @ 84.1¢
Will Trump say "frack" or "fracking" 3 or more times during Las Vegas rally on October 24?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 85.5¢
Will Trump say "Biden" 10 or more times during Macon, GA rally?Won
No$21 @ 83.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$18.7k	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$18.7k	50.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$3.4k	83.6¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Other	No	$2.6k	86.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$2.5k	61.5¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$1.8k	46.9¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?	Culture	No	$1.7k	74.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.2k	27.6¢
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	Politics	No	$1.1k	56.0¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$959	68.5¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$945	35.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$920	61.4¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	No	$859	86.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$780	78.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$749	75.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$715	71.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$660	22.0¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	No	$605	52.2¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$450	45.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$409	14.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$380	76.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Politics	No	$344	86.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Sports	No	$330	66.0¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	Politics	No	$193	87.2¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Politics	No	$184	70.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$161	46.0¢
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?	Politics	No	$114	87.0¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$83	47.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$65	18.5¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$56	5.6¢

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$18.7k @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$18.7k @ 50.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$3.4k @ 83.6¢
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
No$2.6k @ 86.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$2.5k @ 61.5¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$1.8k @ 46.9¢
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Culture
No$1.7k @ 74.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.2k @ 27.6¢
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?Politics
No$1.1k @ 56.0¢
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$959 @ 68.5¢
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$945 @ 35.6¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$920 @ 61.4¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
No$859 @ 86.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$780 @ 78.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$749 @ 75.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Geopolitics
No$715 @ 71.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$660 @ 22.0¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
No$605 @ 52.2¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Politics
Yes$450 @ 45.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$409 @ 14.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$380 @ 76.0¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
No$344 @ 86.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Sports
No$330 @ 66.0¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?Politics
No$193 @ 87.2¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
No$184 @ 70.0¢
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$161 @ 46.0¢
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?Politics
No$114 @ 87.0¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
Yes$83 @ 47.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Geopolitics
No$65 @ 18.5¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$56 @ 5.6¢