0x4526…7a45

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other719 bets

  Hit rate

  69% (499/719)

  ROI

  +11%

• Politics70 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (35/70)

  ROI

  +17%

• Geopolitics24 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (12/24)

  ROI

  +9%

• Sports18 bets

  Hit rate

  44% (8/18)

  ROI

  -0%

• Tech3 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (1/3)

  ROI

  -50%

• Crypto1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +23%

• U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by October 31?Won
  Yes$47 @ 38.0¢
• Will JD Vance say "JFK" during the Joe Rogan podcast?Won
  No$310 @ 46.3¢
• Will Trump say "Native American" during New Mexico rally on October 31?Lost
  Yes$353 @ 39.2¢
• Will Kamala and Trump both say "abortion" at debate?Won
  Yes$76 @ 76.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire before July? Won
  No$870 @ 87.0¢
• Will Trump say "god" 4 or more times during Pittsburgh rally on Nov 4?Lost
  No$7 @ 41.0¢
• Will Trump say "god" 4 or more times during Pittsburgh rally on Nov 4?Won
  Yes$210 @ 75.0¢
• Will Vance say "Aurora" during Detroit rally on October 8?Won
  No$60 @ 81.0¢
• Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
  No$777 @ 29.6¢
• Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
  Yes$3.6k @ 57.7¢
• Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during Michigan rally on October 18?Lost
  Yes$196 @ 49.0¢
• Will Trump say "Kamalanomics" during Georgia speech on Oct 15?Won
  No$1.3k @ 69.3¢
• Will Tim Walz say "IVF" during CNN interview?Lost
  No$214 @ 79.4¢
• Will Trump say "GM" or "General Motors" during Michigan rally on October 25?Lost
  Yes$133 @ 30.9¢
• Will Obama say "Black" at DNC speech?Won
  Yes$71 @ 71.0¢
• Will Trump say "Tip" during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20?Lost
  No$230 @ 46.0¢
• Will Trump say "tampon" during California rally on October 12?Won
  No$30 @ 60.0¢
• Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$84 @ 16.8¢
• Will Trump say "Israel" during Pennsylvania rally on October 19?Lost
  No$164 @ 31.1¢
• Polymarket Parlay - NFL Week 1Won
  No$25 @ 61.0¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
  Yes$881 @ 88.1¢
• Will Trump say "Hamas" during Pennsylvania rally on October 19?Won
  No$741 @ 86.2¢
• Will Trump say "missile defense shield" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?Won
  Yes$195 @ 89.0¢
• Will Donald Trump say "China" 10 or more times during his Michigan town hall?Won
  Yes$411 @ 78.7¢
• Will Trump say "Saudi Arabia" during Macon, GA rally?Won
  Yes$192 @ 53.6¢
• Will Trump say "tax" 30 or more times during Arizona rally on October 13?Won
  No$420 @ 84.0¢
• Will Donald Trump say "Routh" during his Michigan town hall?Won
  No$293 @ 87.1¢
• Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
  No$467 @ 77.4¢
• Will Trump say "sanctuary city" during Pennsylvania rally on October 26?Lost
  No$227 @ 21.2¢
• Will Trump say "frack" or "fracking" 4 or more times during Michigan rally on October 25?Won
  Yes$954 @ 74.6¢
• Will Vance say "mamaw" during Detroit rally on October 8?Lost
  No$647 @ 75.1¢
• Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
  Yes$90 @ 22.5¢
• Will Donald Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Uniondale rally?Lost
  Yes$62 @ 14.9¢
• Will JD Vance say "rig" or "rigged" during the debate?Won
  No$28 @ 64.0¢
• Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
  No$3.6k @ 88.8¢
• Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
  Yes$222 @ 14.8¢
• Will Kamala say "won" or "win" in her speech after the election is called?Won
  Yes$405 @ 81.0¢
• Will Trump say "phone app" during Pennsylvania rally?Lost
  Yes$266 @ 66.5¢
• Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$387 @ 38.7¢
• Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$95 @ 83.6¢
• Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Lost
  No$320 @ 32.0¢
• Will Donald Trump's tie be another color?Won
  Yes$25 @ 87.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$100 @ 25.0¢
• Will Trump say "Pocahontas" during Nevada rally on Oct 31?Won
  Yes$210 @ 88.6¢
• Will Trump say "NYPD" during New York rally on October 27?Lost
  Yes$615 @ 82.0¢
• Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?Lost
  No$571 @ 71.4¢
• Will Trump say "Guatemala" at Wisconsin rally?Lost
  No$14 @ 69.0¢
• Will Trump say "god" 4 or more during Greensboro, NC rally?Won
  Yes$925 @ 72.0¢
• Will Trump say "Frack" of "Fracking" 8 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on Oct 29?Won
  Yes$240 @ 51.1¢
• Will Donald Trump say "Hezbollah" during his Pennsylvania rally?Won
  No$396 @ 81.7¢

Current positions

• Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?Politics
  No$6.2k @ 96.9¢
• Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
  Yes$5.8k @ 50.0¢
• Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
  No$5.8k @ 50.0¢
• Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
  No$2.6k @ 86.0¢
• Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Politics
  No$2.5k @ 82.7¢
• US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$1.8k @ 46.9¢
• Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Culture
  No$1.7k @ 74.5¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
  Yes$1.2k @ 27.6¢
• Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$1.1k @ 42.6¢
• Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?Politics
  No$1.1k @ 56.0¢
• Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$959 @ 68.5¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$920 @ 61.4¢
• Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
  No$859 @ 86.0¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Politics
  No$810 @ 81.0¢
• Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?Crypto
  No$799 @ 80.0¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$780 @ 78.0¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$749 @ 75.0¢
• Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Geopolitics
  No$715 @ 71.5¢
• NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$660 @ 22.0¢
• Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
  No$613 @ 80.2¢
• Trump renames AI by September 30?Politics
  No$454 @ 71.9¢
• US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Politics
  Yes$450 @ 45.0¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  Yes$409 @ 14.0¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$405 @ 72.0¢
• Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
  No$380 @ 76.0¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Politics
  No$344 @ 86.0¢
• Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Sports
  No$330 @ 66.0¢
• Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?Politics
  No$193 @ 87.2¢
• Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Politics
  No$184 @ 70.0¢
• Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$161 @ 46.0¢