0x44a0…76e5

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other220 bets

  Hit rate

  59% (130/220)

  ROI

  +5%

• Tech26 bets

  Hit rate

  73% (19/26)

  ROI

  +7%

• Culture18 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (9/18)

  ROI

  +22%

• Science10 bets

  Hit rate

  30% (3/10)

  ROI

  -43%

• Politics9 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (6/9)

  ROI

  +20%

• Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 24, 2026?Won
  No$190 @ 95.0¢
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Won
  No$295 @ 98.5¢
• Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 23, 2026?Won
  No$43 @ 85.8¢
• Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?Won
  No$182 @ 81.0¢
• Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 22, 2026?Won
  No$783 @ 97.9¢
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?Won
  No$740 @ 97.2¢
• Will "Love Is Blind: Boston" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?Won
  Yes$12 @ 59.0¢
• Will "Animals" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
• Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?Lost
  No$16 @ 79.5¢
• Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Lost
  Yes$11 @ 55.0¢
• Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Won
  Yes$225 @ 87.9¢
• Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Lost
  No$6 @ 39.0¢
• Will xAI have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Won
  No$11 @ 97.9¢
• Will Z.ai have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Won
  No$58 @ 96.8¢
• Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?Won
  Yes$10 @ 86.0¢
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 18, 2026?Won
  No$55 @ 96.2¢
• Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Lost
  Yes$63 @ 56.9¢
• Will Nvidia have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Won
  No$29 @ 98.3¢
• Will Xiaomi have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Won
  No$116 @ 96.2¢
• Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 17, 2026?Won
  No$26 @ 90.3¢
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?Won
  No$4 @ 97.4¢
• Next DeepSeek Flash released by November 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$38 @ 37.6¢
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 15, 2026?Won
  No$243 @ 85.2¢
• Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 15, 2026?Won
  No$265 @ 90.5¢
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?Won
  No$609 @ 86.7¢
• Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week?Lost
  No$2 @ 3.3¢
• Will "How to Train Your Dragon" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?Won
  No$24 @ 61.8¢
• Will "The Rip" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (February 3)Won
  No$76 @ 66.3¢
• Will "Tony H.: Man of the People" be the top global Netflix show this week?Won
  No$27 @ 59.0¢
• Trump insults Anthropic CEO this week?Won
  No$446 @ 81.0¢
• Will "Vladimir" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?Won
  No$68 @ 68.0¢
• Will "Derrick Stroup: Nostalgic" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?Won
  No$14 @ 89.7¢
• Will the #1 global Netflix show have at least 12 million views this week?Lost
  No$1 @ 1.0¢
• Will "Sarah's Oil" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?Won
  Yes$31 @ 76.5¢
• Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 15?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 15.6¢
• Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on May 17?Won
  No$9 @ 88.0¢
• Will the number of US flights delayed on March 31 be between 5,500 and 6,000?Lost
  No$1 @ 11.0¢
• Will the number of US flights delayed on March 31 be between 6,000 and 6,500?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
• Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 2.0¢
• Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 17?Won
  No$27 @ 88.5¢
• Will "Apex" be the top global Netflix movie this week?Won
  Yes$70 @ 88.0¢
• Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on April 16?Won
  No$71 @ 85.8¢
• Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 9, 2025)Won
  Yes$89 @ 89.0¢
• Will "ONE PIECE: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?Lost
  No$21 @ 6.7¢
• Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)Lost
  Yes$466 @ 75.4¢
• Will "KPop Demon Hunters" be the top US Netflix movie this week?Won
  No$88 @ 88.0¢
• Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?Won
  No$473 @ 86.1¢
• Will the number of US flights delayed on March 29 be between 6,000 and 6,500?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
• Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 20?Won
  No$9 @ 89.0¢
• Will the number of US flights delayed on March 26 be between 5,000 and 5,500?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 3.0¢

Current positions

• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?Tech
  Yes$1.9k @ 96.7¢
• Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 25, 2026?Tech
  No$687 @ 94.9¢
• Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Tech
  Yes$464 @ 94.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$273 @ 96.9¢
• Tompkins County District Attorney out by November 30?Politics
  No$220 @ 81.0¢
• Tennessee makes electric chair execution default in 2026?Politics
  No$154 @ 72.9¢
• Will "Primate" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?Culture
  No$147 @ 92.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mark Carney by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$116 @ 85.5¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$112 @ 93.6¢
• Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?Politics
  Yes$95 @ 95.4¢
• Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?Politics
  No$90 @ 90.0¢
• Will "Evil Dead Burn" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?Culture
  No$85 @ 94.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Dario Amodei by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$74 @ 91.0¢
• Will Grok Bot be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026?Tech
  No$42 @ 76.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$25 @ 86.0¢
• Next DeepSeek Flash released by December 31, 2026?Tech
  Yes$20 @ 34.0¢
• Astra removed from public access by October 31?Tech
  No$13 @ 88.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$10 @ 98.8¢
• Will Google be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
  No$9 @ 82.3¢
• Alcatraz reopened in 2026?Politics
  No$7 @ 86.2¢
• Tompkins County District Attorney out by November 30?Politics
  Yes$3 @ 52.0¢
• Will Meta have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Tech
  Yes$0 @ 1.4¢