0x4450…086c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4450b2824db178f15ea01caa796dfcef9d25086c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.8pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

85% @ 75.8¢

Brier

0.137

Resolved

143

Avg size

$114

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	81% (68/84)	+11%	84
Politics	81% (17/21)	+15%	21
Crypto	100% (10/10)	+22%	10
Geopolitics	100% (5/5)	+27%	5
Tech	100% (4/4)	+21%	4
Business	50% (1/2)	-40%	2
Economy	100% (1/1)	+27%	1

Other84 bets
Hit rate
81% (68/84)
ROI
+11%
Politics21 bets
Hit rate
81% (17/21)
ROI
+15%
Crypto10 bets
Hit rate
100% (10/10)
ROI
+22%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
100% (5/5)
ROI
+27%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+21%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-40%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+27%

Track record

83% hit · 106/127

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	$200	84.9¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	$200	92.0¢	Won
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in October?	No	$100	79.4¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$50	81.0¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	No	$60	62.0¢	Lost
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?	No	$73	81.1¢	Won
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$142	66.6¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	$100	82.0¢	Won
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?	No	$191	83.6¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	$101	83.0¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?	No	$25	78.3¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of March?	No	$100	83.0¢	Won
Over $40M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	No	$102	71.9¢	Won
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?	No	$92	83.0¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$100	84.0¢	Won
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	$101	66.3¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$200	88.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?	No	$201	86.2¢	Won
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in February?	No	$74	84.7¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?	No	$17	76.0¢	Won
Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	No	$155	72.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?	No	$75	66.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?	No	$202	87.0¢	Won
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	No	$50	87.5¢	Won
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	$75	45.6¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$100	61.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?	No	$200	78.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$70	89.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$240	77.0¢	Won
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July?	No	$201	82.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?	No	$100	76.0¢	Lost
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	$245	83.7¢	Won
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?	No	$201	85.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?	No	$200	78.9¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	$201	85.5¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	No	$101	75.0¢	Won
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	$65	83.1¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?	No	$405	82.1¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?	No	$120	61.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$101	81.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$200	79.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$201	83.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	No	$204	69.0¢	Won
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $740 in September?	No	$201	83.0¢	Lost
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	$50	88.7¢	Won
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?	No	$100	86.6¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	No	$101	85.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	$100	76.4¢	Won
Will Solana dip to $50 in June?	No	$243	82.5¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	$245	76.0¢	Won

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Won
No$200 @ 84.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Won
Yes$200 @ 92.0¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in October?Lost
No$100 @ 79.4¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$50 @ 81.0¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Lost
No$60 @ 62.0¢
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?Won
No$73 @ 81.1¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$142 @ 66.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?Won
No$100 @ 82.0¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in July?Won
No$191 @ 83.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?Won
No$101 @ 83.0¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?Won
No$25 @ 78.3¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of March?Won
No$100 @ 83.0¢
Over $40M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Won
No$102 @ 71.9¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?Won
No$92 @ 83.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$100 @ 84.0¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?Won
Yes$101 @ 66.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$200 @ 88.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?Won
No$201 @ 86.2¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in February?Won
No$74 @ 84.7¢
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?Won
No$17 @ 76.0¢
Over $14M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?Won
No$155 @ 72.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?Lost
No$75 @ 66.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?Won
No$202 @ 87.0¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Won
No$50 @ 87.5¢
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Won
No$75 @ 45.6¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$100 @ 61.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?Won
No$200 @ 78.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$70 @ 89.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$240 @ 77.0¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July?Won
No$201 @ 82.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?Lost
No$100 @ 76.0¢
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?Won
No$245 @ 83.7¢
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?Won
No$201 @ 85.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?Won
No$200 @ 78.9¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?Won
No$201 @ 85.5¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Won
No$101 @ 75.0¢
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Won
No$65 @ 83.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?Won
No$405 @ 82.1¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?Lost
No$120 @ 61.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$101 @ 81.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$200 @ 79.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
Yes$201 @ 83.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?Won
No$204 @ 69.0¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $740 in September?Lost
No$201 @ 83.0¢
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?Won
Yes$50 @ 88.7¢
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 86.6¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Lost
No$101 @ 85.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Won
No$100 @ 76.4¢
Will Solana dip to $50 in June?Won
No$243 @ 82.5¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Won
No$245 @ 76.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $600 in October?	Business	No	$400	86.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Other	No	$200	87.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Politics	Yes	$200	92.0¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $860 in October?	Business	No	$200	87.9¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in October?	Other	No	$200	86.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Politics	No	$200	84.9¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in October?	Business	No	$200	80.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$200	87.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?	Crypto	No	$200	86.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$200	86.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?	Crypto	No	$200	85.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?	Crypto	No	$200	85.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in October?	Business	No	$150	86.6¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?	Other	No	$100	81.0¢

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $600 in October?Business
No$400 @ 86.8¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?Other
No$200 @ 87.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Politics
Yes$200 @ 92.0¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $860 in October?Business
No$200 @ 87.9¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in October?Other
No$200 @ 86.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Politics
No$200 @ 84.9¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in October?Business
No$200 @ 80.6¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$200 @ 87.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?Crypto
No$200 @ 86.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$200 @ 86.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in October?Crypto
No$200 @ 85.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in October?Crypto
No$200 @ 85.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in October?Business
No$150 @ 86.6¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?Other
No$100 @ 81.0¢