0x43f7…35e5

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x43f7f0c3effde3c61b4257849bfc6e30912e35e5
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.6pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

58% @ 52.9¢

Brier

0.133

Resolved

949

Avg size

$70

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	57% (189/330)	+15%	330
Sports	40% (4/10)	-49%	10
Geopolitics	75% (6/8)	+27%	8
Politics	86% (6/7)	+11%	7
Tech	100% (3/3)	+91%	3
Science	50% (1/2)	+14%	2

Other330 bets
Hit rate
57% (189/330)
ROI
+15%
Sports10 bets
Hit rate
40% (4/10)
ROI
-49%
Geopolitics8 bets
Hit rate
75% (6/8)
ROI
+27%
Politics7 bets
Hit rate
86% (6/7)
ROI
+11%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+91%
Science2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+14%

Track record

58% hit · 209/360

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	Yes	$210	54.0¢	Won
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	Over	$46	76.0¢	Won
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$51	85.0¢	Won
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?	Yes	$10	6.0¢	Lost
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?	No	$28	6.2¢	Lost
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?	No	$101	89.0¢	Won
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on August 31?	Yes	$47	10.4¢	Lost
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.25-3.50 in August?	Yes	$16	27.0¢	Lost
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in February 2026?	Yes	$2	1.9¢	Lost
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	$14	1.1¢	Lost
Will Albania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?	No	$30	37.3¢	Lost
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?	No	$60	79.6¢	Lost
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?	Yes	$98	20.9¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	$210	70.0¢	Lost
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	Yes	$64	16.4¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?	No	$10	1.8¢	Lost
Will Sam Altman be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	$4	0.7¢	Lost
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	No	$1.1k	60.6¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?	Yes	$50	49.1¢	Lost
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?	No	$106	88.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$800	11.0¢	Lost
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?	Yes	$123	30.1¢	Won
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	$374	87.0¢	Won
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?	No	$96	68.8¢	Won
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$124	72.3¢	Lost
Kilmar Abrego Garcia deported by September 30?	No	$500	87.0¢	Won
Will Centre Party (C) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?	Yes	$136	42.7¢	Lost
New X CEO announced by July 31?	No	$51	58.0¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$448	89.5¢	Won
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament?	Yes	$10	2.9¢	Lost
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?	No	$525	86.9¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	$241	68.8¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.8k	83.6¢	Won
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?	No	$142	78.7¢	Won
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?	Yes	$20	50.0¢	Lost
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	$79	2.6¢	Lost
Will MrBeast reach 450 million subscribers in 2025?	Yes	$175	81.9¢	Won
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026?	Yes	$2	1.7¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?	No	$300	80.0¢	Won
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	No	$114	37.7¢	Won
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?	No	$160	80.0¢	Won
Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$110	76.9¢	Won
Obama or Biden tweets about Ukraine by Friday?	Yes	$5	18.0¢	Lost
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025?	No	$1	84.0¢	Won
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?	No	$58	57.0¢	Won
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?	Yes	$16	16.0¢	Won
Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by April 30?	No	$105	87.8¢	Won
Will there be 155,000,000-160,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election?	No	$197	51.0¢	Lost
Solana above $160 on June 6?	Yes	$5	33.0¢	Lost

Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?Won
Yes$210 @ 54.0¢
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5Won
Over$46 @ 76.0¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Won
No$51 @ 85.0¢
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?Lost
Yes$10 @ 6.0¢
Will there be at least 1500 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$28 @ 6.2¢
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?Won
No$101 @ 89.0¢
Will USD be between 1.7M and 1.8M Iranian rials on August 31?Lost
Yes$47 @ 10.4¢
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.25-3.50 in August?Lost
Yes$16 @ 27.0¢
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in February 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.9¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Lost
Yes$14 @ 1.1¢
Will Albania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?Lost
No$30 @ 37.3¢
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?Lost
No$60 @ 79.6¢
Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?Won
Yes$98 @ 20.9¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Lost
No$210 @ 70.0¢
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?Lost
Yes$64 @ 16.4¢
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?Lost
No$10 @ 1.8¢
Will Sam Altman be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.7¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Won
No$1.1k @ 60.6¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 49.1¢
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?Won
No$106 @ 88.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$800 @ 11.0¢
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?Won
Yes$123 @ 30.1¢
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?Won
No$374 @ 87.0¢
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?Won
No$96 @ 68.8¢
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
Yes$124 @ 72.3¢
Kilmar Abrego Garcia deported by September 30?Won
No$500 @ 87.0¢
Will Centre Party (C) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?Lost
Yes$136 @ 42.7¢
New X CEO announced by July 31?Won
No$51 @ 58.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$448 @ 89.5¢
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.9¢
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?Won
No$525 @ 86.9¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
Yes$241 @ 68.8¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.8k @ 83.6¢
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?Won
No$142 @ 78.7¢
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?Lost
Yes$20 @ 50.0¢
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Lost
Yes$79 @ 2.6¢
Will MrBeast reach 450 million subscribers in 2025?Won
Yes$175 @ 81.9¢
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.7¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?Won
No$300 @ 80.0¢
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Won
No$114 @ 37.7¢
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?Won
No$160 @ 80.0¢
Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$110 @ 76.9¢
Obama or Biden tweets about Ukraine by Friday?Lost
Yes$5 @ 18.0¢
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2025?Won
No$1 @ 84.0¢
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30?Won
No$58 @ 57.0¢
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?Won
Yes$16 @ 16.0¢
Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by April 30?Won
No$105 @ 87.8¢
Will there be 155,000,000-160,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election?Lost
No$197 @ 51.0¢
Solana above $160 on June 6?Lost
Yes$5 @ 33.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	No	$2.0k	99.1¢
Christopher Luxon out by September 30?	Politics	No	$1.2k	94.6¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by September 25, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.1k	85.4¢
Will there be 30 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$1.1k	98.8¢
Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	Politics	No	$1.1k	72.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$715	63.6¢
Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$508	74.8¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$467	99.1¢
Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?	Politics	No	$422	38.5¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$376	84.9¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 260M by September 25, 2026?	Politics	No	$228	94.7¢
Will there be between 25 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$195	99.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C?	Politics	Yes	$174	14.1¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + V?	Politics	Yes	$173	17.1¢
Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$161	23.7¢
Will the Christian Democrats (KD) be in the next Swedish government?	Politics	No	$151	84.0¢
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in July 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	Politics	Yes	$96	56.3¢
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?	Politics	Yes	$18	10.1¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L + C?	Politics	Yes	$6	4.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + KD?	Politics	Yes	$4	2.2¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + L?	Politics	Yes	$3	2.0¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
No$2.0k @ 99.1¢
Christopher Luxon out by September 30?Politics
No$1.2k @ 94.6¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by September 25, 2026?Politics
No$1.1k @ 85.4¢
Will there be 30 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?Geopolitics
No$1.1k @ 98.8¢
Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?Politics
No$1.1k @ 72.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$715 @ 63.6¢
Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$508 @ 74.8¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?Geopolitics
No$467 @ 99.1¢
Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?Politics
No$422 @ 38.5¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by September 25, 2026?Politics
Yes$376 @ 84.9¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 260M by September 25, 2026?Politics
No$228 @ 94.7¢
Will there be between 25 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?Geopolitics
No$195 @ 99.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C?Politics
Yes$174 @ 14.1¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + V?Politics
Yes$173 @ 17.1¢
Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$161 @ 23.7¢
Will the Christian Democrats (KD) be in the next Swedish government?Politics
No$151 @ 84.0¢
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in July 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?Politics
Yes$96 @ 56.3¢
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?Politics
Yes$18 @ 10.1¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L + C?Politics
Yes$6 @ 4.0¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + KD?Politics
Yes$4 @ 2.2¢
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + L?Politics
Yes$3 @ 2.0¢