0x43e2…5fbd

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x43e2edf8d9b5acc69e419f660b265c5c94535fbd
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-3.5pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

44% @ 47.4¢

Brier

0.183

Resolved

1353

Avg size

$34

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	42% (44/104)	+14%	104
Politics	36% (27/76)	+5%	76
Sports	59% (29/49)	+6%	49
Geopolitics	0% (0/12)	-100%	12
Crypto	57% (4/7)	-7%	7
Tech	25% (1/4)	-96%	4

Other104 bets
Hit rate
42% (44/104)
ROI
+14%
Politics76 bets
Hit rate
36% (27/76)
ROI
+5%
Sports49 bets
Hit rate
59% (29/49)
ROI
+6%
Geopolitics12 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/12)
ROI
-100%
Crypto7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
-7%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-96%

Track record

42% hit · 105/252

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	Yes	$3	34.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	No	$126	62.9¢	Won
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$7	32.0¢	Won
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$32	64.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$883	67.6¢	Won
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	No	$3	12.0¢	Won
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$31	41.1¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8?	Yes	$5	42.2¢	Lost
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?	Yes	$2	12.0¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$6	11.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 29?	Yes	$1	28.0¢	Lost
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$2	20.0¢	Lost
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	$10	65.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$7	3.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$255	63.8¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$3.1k	54.5¢	Lost
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	No	$14	68.0¢	Won
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?	No	$5	9.9¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Yes	$94	20.4¢	Lost
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$11	60.1¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$2.4k	72.4¢	Won
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$94	30.9¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	No	$122	62.3¢	Won
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$76	7.6¢	Lost
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$107	19.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$2	15.3¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August?	Yes	$208	67.9¢	Lost
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$9	6.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	44.7¢	Won
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$2	9.7¢	Lost
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$14	14.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8?	Yes	$169	87.9¢	Won
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	$41	33.7¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	Yes	$121	30.3¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$3.4k	64.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?	Yes	$417	20.3¢	Lost
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	$5	15.0¢	Lost
Spread: United States (-2.5)	Australia	$15	51.5¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	$16	8.4¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?	Yes	$4	12.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$51	25.1¢	Lost
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$13	13.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$209	22.9¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$2	20.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$258	29.3¢	Lost
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$41	81.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$105	25.9¢	Lost
Spread: United States (-1.5)	Australia	$7	28.7¢	Lost
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?	No	$10	19.1¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$14	27.4¢	Lost

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 34.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Won
No$126 @ 62.9¢
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$7 @ 32.0¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$32 @ 64.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$883 @ 67.6¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?Won
No$3 @ 12.0¢
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?Lost
Yes$31 @ 41.1¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8?Lost
Yes$5 @ 42.2¢
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?Lost
Yes$2 @ 12.0¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 11.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 29?Lost
Yes$1 @ 28.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 20.0¢
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?Won
Yes$10 @ 65.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$255 @ 63.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$3.1k @ 54.5¢
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?Won
No$14 @ 68.0¢
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?Lost
No$5 @ 9.9¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Lost
Yes$94 @ 20.4¢
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$11 @ 60.1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 72.4¢
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$94 @ 30.9¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Won
No$122 @ 62.3¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$76 @ 7.6¢
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$107 @ 19.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 15.3¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August?Lost
Yes$208 @ 67.9¢
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$9 @ 6.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 44.7¢
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?Lost
Yes$2 @ 9.7¢
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$14 @ 14.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8?Won
Yes$169 @ 87.9¢
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Won
Yes$41 @ 33.7¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Lost
Yes$121 @ 30.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$3.4k @ 64.0¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?Lost
Yes$417 @ 20.3¢
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?Lost
Yes$5 @ 15.0¢
Spread: United States (-2.5)Won
Australia$15 @ 51.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Won
Yes$16 @ 8.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 12.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$51 @ 25.1¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$13 @ 13.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$209 @ 22.9¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$2 @ 20.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$258 @ 29.3¢
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$41 @ 81.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$105 @ 25.9¢
Spread: United States (-1.5)Lost
Australia$7 @ 28.7¢
Will Steve Witkoff attend Trump’s Xi summit?Won
No$10 @ 19.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 27.4¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$503	62.9¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$333	83.3¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$10	19.0¢

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$503 @ 62.9¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Politics
Yes$333 @ 83.3¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$10 @ 19.0¢