0x43cb…84df

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x43cb4ae1f4ddc9e671486c79c9f40a6fd98b84df
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.0pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

36% @ 34.0¢

Brier

0.134

Resolved

4243

Avg size

$16

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Science	25% (1459/5831)	-2%	5831
Other	14% (471/3436)	+9%	3436
Politics	29% (274/958)	+2%	958
Sports	42% (252/607)	+2%	607
Culture	24% (63/267)	+2%	267
Economy	18% (37/209)	+3%	209
Tech	21% (42/200)	+8%	200
Geopolitics	17% (19/109)	+1%	109
Crypto	4% (1/25)	-37%	25
Business	15% (3/20)	+6%	20

Science5831 bets
Hit rate
25% (1459/5831)
ROI
-2%
Other3436 bets
Hit rate
14% (471/3436)
ROI
+9%
Politics958 bets
Hit rate
29% (274/958)
ROI
+2%
Sports607 bets
Hit rate
42% (252/607)
ROI
+2%
Culture267 bets
Hit rate
24% (63/267)
ROI
+2%
Economy209 bets
Hit rate
18% (37/209)
ROI
+3%
Tech200 bets
Hit rate
21% (42/200)
ROI
+8%
Geopolitics109 bets
Hit rate
17% (19/109)
ROI
+1%
Crypto25 bets
Hit rate
4% (1/25)
ROI
-37%
Business20 bets
Hit rate
15% (3/20)
ROI
+6%

Track record

22% hit · 2621/11662

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	$8	1.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on November 8?	Yes	$0	4.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on November 2?	Yes	$7	74.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on November 3?	No	$7	35.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on November 8?	Yes	$9	88.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on November 3?	No	$3	50.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on November 3?	Yes	$5	48.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on November 3?	No	$6	57.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or higher on November 8?	Yes	$0	0.5¢	Lost
Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on November 4?	No	$12	47.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on November 4?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Will Democrats win exactly 6 House seats in Virginia in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	$5	4.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on November 8?	Yes	$1	2.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	$3	0.8¢	Lost
Will two or more regions tie for the most teams in the Worlds 2026 Knockout Stage?	Yes	$11	35.1¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	$20	78.4¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	$86	16.6¢	Lost
McDonald's (MCD) Q3 global comparable sales growth 1% to 2%?	No	$8	39.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on November 3?	No	$5	49.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on November 5?	No	$1	69.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on November 5?	Yes	$0	2.9¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?	No	$36	36.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on November 6?	No	$3	59.6¢	Won
Will Democrats win exactly 9 House seats in Michigan in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	$13	67.0¢	Lost
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz	Ben Shelton	$143	21.7¢	Lost
Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in October?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Lost
Will UKMTO publish 16 or more notices between October 26-November 1?	Yes	$1	2.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 10°C on November 9?	No	$0	81.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on November 6?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	$24	33.3¢	Lost
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?	No	$0	65.2¢	Won
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?	Yes	$2	1.2¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 6°C on November 6?	No	$2	20.0¢	Lost
Will there be fewer than 20 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Karmine Corp	$65	54.1¢	Won
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage	Movistar KOI	$46	19.2¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%?	No	$5	85.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on November 10?	Yes	$0	3.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on November 3?	Yes	$0	0.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on November 7?	Yes	$0	0.8¢	Lost
Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?	No	$59	49.0¢	Won
Will Bilibili Gaming Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	No	$59	16.7¢	Lost
Will Bilibili Gaming Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	$168	65.4¢	Won
Will UKMTO publish 4-7 notices between October 26-November 1?	Yes	$0	1.1¢	Lost
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 6m?	No	$66	57.4¢	Won
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 6m?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 1.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on November 8?Won
Yes$0 @ 4.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on November 2?Won
Yes$7 @ 74.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on November 3?Lost
No$7 @ 35.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on November 8?Won
Yes$9 @ 88.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on November 3?Lost
No$3 @ 50.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on November 3?Won
Yes$5 @ 48.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on November 3?Lost
No$6 @ 57.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or higher on November 8?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.5¢
Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on November 4?Won
No$12 @ 47.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 28°C on November 4?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
Will Democrats win exactly 6 House seats in Virginia in the 2026 midterm elections?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on November 8?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.8¢
Will two or more regions tie for the most teams in the Worlds 2026 Knockout Stage?Won
Yes$11 @ 35.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 78.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$86 @ 16.6¢
McDonald's (MCD) Q3 global comparable sales growth 1% to 2%?Lost
No$8 @ 39.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on November 3?Lost
No$5 @ 49.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on November 5?Lost
No$1 @ 69.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on November 5?Won
Yes$0 @ 2.9¢
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?Won
No$36 @ 36.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on November 6?Won
No$3 @ 59.6¢
Will Democrats win exactly 9 House seats in Michigan in the 2026 midterm elections?Lost
No$13 @ 67.0¢
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Carlos AlcarazLost
Ben Shelton$143 @ 21.7¢
Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in October?Lost
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
Will UKMTO publish 16 or more notices between October 26-November 1?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 10°C on November 9?Won
No$0 @ 81.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on November 6?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?Lost
Yes$24 @ 33.3¢
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?Won
No$0 @ 65.2¢
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.2¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseLost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.50 and $5.00 on October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 6°C on November 6?Lost
No$2 @ 20.0¢
Will there be fewer than 20 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Worlds Group StageWon
Karmine Corp$65 @ 54.1¢
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Worlds Group StageLost
Movistar KOI$46 @ 19.2¢
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%?Won
No$5 @ 85.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 14°C on November 10?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.9¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on November 3?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on November 7?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will Mike Thompson win the CA-04 House seat?Won
No$59 @ 49.0¢
Will Bilibili Gaming Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?Lost
No$59 @ 16.7¢
Will Bilibili Gaming Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?Won
Yes$168 @ 65.4¢
Will UKMTO publish 4-7 notices between October 26-November 1?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.1¢
Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 6m?Won
No$66 @ 57.4¢
Will "Ramayana" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 6m?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$25.0k	50.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$25.0k	50.0¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$3.0k	58.3¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1.9k	36.9¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.7k	65.1¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Politics	Yes	$943	29.6¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	No	$577	96.0¢
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$423	72.0¢
Will ANSEM be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	Crypto	No	$99	99.1¢
Will NetNet be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	Crypto	No	$99	99.0¢
Will Cash Cat be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	Crypto	No	$96	96.0¢
Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	Crypto	No	$87	87.0¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$84	93.1¢
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$66	1.3¢
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Politics	Yes	$55	57.1¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$16	2.6¢
Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?	Crypto	No	$15	15.0¢
Will Ana Brnabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Politics	Yes	$14	14.5¢
Will Miloš Vučević be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Politics	Yes	$7	7.0¢
Will Stefan Krkobabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Politics	Yes	$6	6.5¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania be between 5,500,000 and 6,000,000?	Politics	Yes	$6	31.2¢
Will Dragan Đilas be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Politics	Yes	$5	4.7¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$4	5.0¢
Will Ivica Dačić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Politics	Yes	$4	4.0¢
Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$4	18.0¢
Will Đuro Macut be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.9¢
Will Branimir Jovanović be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.8¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania be 6,500,000 or more?	Politics	Yes	$0	1.4¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania be between 4,000,000 and 4,500,000?	Politics	Yes	$0	1.2¢

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$25.0k @ 50.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
No$25.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$3.0k @ 58.3¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$1.9k @ 36.9¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.7k @ 65.1¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?Politics
Yes$943 @ 29.6¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
No$577 @ 96.0¢
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Politics
Yes$423 @ 72.0¢
Will ANSEM be the first to hit a $1B FDV?Crypto
No$99 @ 99.1¢
Will NetNet be the first to hit a $1B FDV?Crypto
No$99 @ 99.0¢
Will Cash Cat be the first to hit a $1B FDV?Crypto
No$96 @ 96.0¢
Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV?Crypto
No$87 @ 87.0¢
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$84 @ 93.1¢
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$66 @ 1.3¢
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Politics
Yes$55 @ 57.1¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$16 @ 2.6¢
Will none of these coins hit a $1B FDV?Crypto
No$15 @ 15.0¢
Will Ana Brnabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Politics
Yes$14 @ 14.5¢
Will Miloš Vučević be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Politics
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
Will Stefan Krkobabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Politics
Yes$6 @ 6.5¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania be between 5,500,000 and 6,000,000?Politics
Yes$6 @ 31.2¢
Will Dragan Đilas be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Politics
Yes$5 @ 4.7¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$4 @ 5.0¢
Will Ivica Dačić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Politics
Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
Will Trump issue an AI Safety Executive Order by December 31?Politics
Yes$4 @ 18.0¢
Will Đuro Macut be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.9¢
Will Branimir Jovanović be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.8¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania be 6,500,000 or more?Politics
Yes$0 @ 1.4¢
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Pennsylvania be between 4,000,000 and 4,500,000?Politics
Yes$0 @ 1.2¢