0x43cb…84df

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x43cb4ae1f4ddc9e671486c79c9f40a6fd98b84df
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+1.5pp

ROI

+14%

Win rate

27% @ 25.4¢

Brier

0.169

Resolved

3594

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	12% (380/3101)	+9%	3101
Science	10% (56/565)	-34%	565
Sports	41% (186/453)	+2%	453
Politics	13% (12/94)	+16%	94
Crypto	4% (1/25)	-37%	25
Tech	24% (5/21)	+4%	21
Economy	20% (3/15)	+2%	15
Geopolitics	33% (2/6)	+12%	6
Culture	0% (0/6)	-100%	6

Other3101 bets
Hit rate
12% (380/3101)
ROI
+9%
Science565 bets
Hit rate
10% (56/565)
ROI
-34%
Sports453 bets
Hit rate
41% (186/453)
ROI
+2%
Politics94 bets
Hit rate
13% (12/94)
ROI
+16%
Crypto25 bets
Hit rate
4% (1/25)
ROI
-37%
Tech21 bets
Hit rate
24% (5/21)
ROI
+4%
Economy15 bets
Hit rate
20% (3/15)
ROI
+2%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
+12%
Culture6 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/6)
ROI
-100%

Track record

15% hit · 645/4286

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 9?	Yes	$63	73.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on September 16?	Yes	$0	0.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on September 15?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on September 17?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will there be 9 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	$1	0.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on September 21?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 19?	No	$19	64.1¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 19?	Yes	$7	39.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 108°F or higher on September 13?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on September 22?	Yes	$1	3.7¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on September 18?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on September 16?	Yes	$3	2.4¢	Lost
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on September 21?	Yes	$17	54.3¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on September 20?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on September 22?	Yes	$0	0.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on September 22?	No	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on September 22?	Yes	$8	83.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on September 17?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 14?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on September 14?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 22?	Yes	$0	0.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on September 21?	Yes	$7	46.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 17?	No	$3	62.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 17?	Yes	$1	68.0¢	Won
Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have between 148 and 152 seats after the 2026 election?	Yes	$0	3.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on September 15?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on September 20?	Yes	$19	42.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on September 19?	Yes	$15	75.0¢	Won
Will Linke win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	$17	28.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 22?	Yes	$3	49.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 19?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on September 21?	Yes	$5	18.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 21?	Yes	$70	12.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on September 20?	Yes	$3	43.2¢	Lost
Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on September 14?	Yes	$0	2.0¢	Lost
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	$17	25.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 22?	Yes	$3	43.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on September 21?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will Chase Infiniti – “The Testaments” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a drama series?	Yes	$1	1.5¢	Lost
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on September 21?	Yes	$0	0.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 20?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will Sally Field – “Remarkably Bright Creatures” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie?	Yes	$12	45.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on September 22?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on September 15?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on September 18?	Yes	$9	88.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on September 21?	Yes	$1	11.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on September 19?	Yes	$0	0.8¢	Lost

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 9?Won
Yes$63 @ 73.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on September 16?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on September 15?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on September 17?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will there be 9 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on September 21?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 19?Won
No$19 @ 64.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 19?Lost
Yes$7 @ 39.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 108°F or higher on September 13?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on September 22?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.7¢
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on September 18?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on September 16?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.4¢
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on September 21?Won
Yes$17 @ 54.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on September 20?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on September 22?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on September 22?Lost
No$1 @ 10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on September 22?Won
Yes$8 @ 83.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on September 17?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on September 14?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on September 14?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 22?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on September 21?Won
Yes$7 @ 46.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 17?Lost
No$3 @ 62.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 17?Won
Yes$1 @ 68.0¢
Will the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin have between 148 and 152 seats after the 2026 election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on September 15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on September 20?Won
Yes$19 @ 42.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on September 19?Won
Yes$15 @ 75.0¢
Will Linke win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Lost
Yes$17 @ 28.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 22?Won
Yes$3 @ 49.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 19?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on September 21?Lost
Yes$5 @ 18.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 21?Won
Yes$70 @ 12.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on September 20?Lost
Yes$3 @ 43.2¢
Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on September 14?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.0¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?Lost
Yes$17 @ 25.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on September 22?Lost
Yes$3 @ 43.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will Chase Infiniti – “The Testaments” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a drama series?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.5¢
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 20?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will Sally Field – “Remarkably Bright Creatures” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie?Lost
Yes$12 @ 45.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on September 22?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C or higher on September 15?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on September 18?Won
Yes$9 @ 88.0¢
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on September 21?Lost
Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on September 19?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$25.0k	50.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$25.0k	50.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Economy	Yes	$3.7k	88.0¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$3.0k	58.3¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1.9k	36.9¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?	Culture	Yes	$1.5k	84.7¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	63.1¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$970	89.6¢
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Politics	Yes	$904	73.5¢
Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$841	77.0¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Politics	Yes	$812	30.7¢
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	Geopolitics	Yes	$674	61.0¢
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Science	Yes	$618	36.4¢
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026?	Science	Yes	$618	35.3¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	No	$577	96.0¢
No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$495	48.8¢
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$474	43.1¢
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Geopolitics	Yes	$463	72.1¢
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$462	45.6¢
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$423	72.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$421	83.8¢
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$419	38.1¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Economy	Yes	$391	9.4¢
Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$379	93.4¢
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$373	60.1¢
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?	Geopolitics	Yes	$369	32.8¢
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	Geopolitics	Yes	$364	85.5¢
Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?	Science	Yes	$342	21.0¢
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?	Economy	Yes	$286	64.6¢
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Politics	Yes	$281	22.7¢

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$25.0k @ 50.0¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
No$25.0k @ 50.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Economy
Yes$3.7k @ 88.0¢
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$3.0k @ 58.3¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$1.9k @ 36.9¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?Culture
Yes$1.5k @ 84.7¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 63.1¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?Tech
No$970 @ 89.6¢
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics
Yes$904 @ 73.5¢
Will Trump meet with Mark Carney by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$841 @ 77.0¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?Politics
Yes$812 @ 30.7¢
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?Geopolitics
Yes$674 @ 61.0¢
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?Science
Yes$618 @ 36.4¢
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026?Science
Yes$618 @ 35.3¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
No$577 @ 96.0¢
No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$495 @ 48.8¢
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$474 @ 43.1¢
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Geopolitics
Yes$463 @ 72.1¢
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$462 @ 45.6¢
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Politics
Yes$423 @ 72.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$421 @ 83.8¢
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?Politics
Yes$419 @ 38.1¢
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Economy
Yes$391 @ 9.4¢
Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$379 @ 93.4¢
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$373 @ 60.1¢
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?Geopolitics
Yes$369 @ 32.8¢
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?Geopolitics
Yes$364 @ 85.5¢
Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?Science
Yes$342 @ 21.0¢
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the September meeting?Economy
Yes$286 @ 64.6¢
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Politics
Yes$281 @ 22.7¢