0x4388…5050

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4388640a35b4ecebc33f8c73b58a2b988c615050
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.4pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

44% @ 40.3¢

Brier

0.183

Resolved

2104

Avg size

$57

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (306/634)	+21%	634
Tech	41% (41/101)	-6%	101
Economy	55% (46/83)	+38%	83
Sports	36% (19/53)	-15%	53
Politics	45% (20/44)	+8%	44
Science	56% (19/34)	+1%	34
Culture	42% (10/24)	-11%	24
Business	52% (11/21)	-8%	21
Geopolitics	32% (6/19)	+39%	19
Crypto	18% (2/11)	+23%	11

Other634 bets
Hit rate
48% (306/634)
ROI
+21%
Tech101 bets
Hit rate
41% (41/101)
ROI
-6%
Economy83 bets
Hit rate
55% (46/83)
ROI
+38%
Sports53 bets
Hit rate
36% (19/53)
ROI
-15%
Politics44 bets
Hit rate
45% (20/44)
ROI
+8%
Science34 bets
Hit rate
56% (19/34)
ROI
+1%
Culture24 bets
Hit rate
42% (10/24)
ROI
-11%
Business21 bets
Hit rate
52% (11/21)
ROI
-8%
Geopolitics19 bets
Hit rate
32% (6/19)
ROI
+39%
Crypto11 bets
Hit rate
18% (2/11)
ROI
+23%

Track record

47% hit · 480/1024

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.75% before 2027?	No	$46	16.3¢	Lost
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.75% before 2027?	Yes	$98	88.1¢	Won
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?	No	$233	55.1¢	Lost
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.83% in November?	No	$22	55.5¢	Lost
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?	No	$168	32.0¢	Lost
Will Hyperliquid dip to $70 by December 31, 2026?	No	$270	52.0¢	Lost
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11?	No	$135	53.7¢	Lost
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 12?	Yes	$90	33.5¢	Won
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?	Yes	$189	18.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $25 in 2026?	No	$96	42.1¢	Lost
Newsom's Democratic nomination odds dip to 12% by December 31?	No	$54	30.4¢	Lost
Newsom's Democratic nomination odds dip to 12% by December 31?	Yes	$10	52.0¢	Won
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by December 31?	Yes	$34	34.0¢	Won
Will Airbnb (ABNB) Q3 gross booking value be above $26.6B?	No	$117	48.9¢	Lost
Will IMAX (IMAX) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$18	8.6¢	Lost
Will IMAX (IMAX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$201	62.3¢	Won
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	$1	9.8¢	Won
Massachusetts passes jungle primary ballot measure?	Yes	$10	46.0¢	Lost
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	$477	66.0¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 260M by October 30, 2026?	Yes	$23	38.0¢	Lost
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?	Yes	$252	60.3¢	Lost
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by October 30, 2026?	No	$47	53.3¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by October 30, 2026?	No	$36	60.0¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by October 30, 2026?	Yes	$8	40.0¢	Lost
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 240M by October 30, 2026?	Yes	$8	41.0¢	Lost
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	No	$30	16.8¢	Lost
Will more than 600,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	Yes	$23	40.4¢	Lost
Will more than 550,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	No	$7	73.0¢	Lost
Will more than 575,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	No	$10	26.0¢	Lost
Will more than 625,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	No	$274	75.5¢	Won
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $700B and $800B at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$15	35.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$36	18.2¢	Won
Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$29	7.6¢	Lost
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of October 2026?	No	$198	81.7¢	Won
Will Anthropic’s valuation be between $500B and $750B at the end of October 2026?	No	$302	93.9¢	Won
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by December 31?	Yes	$33	56.8¢	Won
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by October 31?	Yes	$60	40.0¢	Lost
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026?	No	$98	16.4¢	Lost
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	$34	15.5¢	Lost
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	$85	23.0¢	Lost
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	$77	6.8¢	Lost
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on October 31, 2026?	No	$18	39.4¢	Lost
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	$2	16.3¢	Lost
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	$13	15.7¢	Lost
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on October 31, 2026?	No	$80	26.4¢	Lost
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $5.50 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	$24	35.8¢	Won
Microsoft announces a training pause by October 31?	Yes	$18	14.9¢	Lost
Will SB Energy IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	$71	35.1¢	Won
SpaceXAI announces a training pause by October 31?	Yes	$15	13.9¢	Lost
Will STRC hit $100 by October 31?	No	$122	12.0¢	Won

Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.75% before 2027?Lost
No$46 @ 16.3¢
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.75% before 2027?Won
Yes$98 @ 88.1¢
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?Lost
No$233 @ 55.1¢
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.83% in November?Lost
No$22 @ 55.5¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?Lost
No$168 @ 32.0¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $70 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$270 @ 52.0¢
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11?Lost
No$135 @ 53.7¢
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 12?Won
Yes$90 @ 33.5¢
Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?Lost
Yes$189 @ 18.0¢
Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $25 in 2026?Lost
No$96 @ 42.1¢
Newsom's Democratic nomination odds dip to 12% by December 31?Lost
No$54 @ 30.4¢
Newsom's Democratic nomination odds dip to 12% by December 31?Won
Yes$10 @ 52.0¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $22.5B by December 31?Won
Yes$34 @ 34.0¢
Will Airbnb (ABNB) Q3 gross booking value be above $26.6B?Lost
No$117 @ 48.9¢
Will IMAX (IMAX) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$18 @ 8.6¢
Will IMAX (IMAX) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$201 @ 62.3¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Won
Yes$1 @ 9.8¢
Massachusetts passes jungle primary ballot measure?Lost
Yes$10 @ 46.0¢
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?Won
Yes$477 @ 66.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 260M by October 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$23 @ 38.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$252 @ 60.3¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 270M by October 30, 2026?Won
No$47 @ 53.3¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by October 30, 2026?Won
No$36 @ 60.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 250M by October 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 40.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 240M by October 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 41.0¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Lost
No$30 @ 16.8¢
Will more than 600,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?Lost
Yes$23 @ 40.4¢
Will more than 550,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?Lost
No$7 @ 73.0¢
Will more than 575,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?Lost
No$10 @ 26.0¢
Will more than 625,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?Won
No$274 @ 75.5¢
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $700B and $800B at the end of October 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 35.0¢
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of October 2026?Won
Yes$36 @ 18.2¢
Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of October 2026?Lost
Yes$29 @ 7.6¢
Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.00T and $1.10T at the end of October 2026?Won
No$198 @ 81.7¢
Will Anthropic’s valuation be between $500B and $750B at the end of October 2026?Won
No$302 @ 93.9¢
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by December 31?Won
Yes$33 @ 56.8¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by October 31?Lost
Yes$60 @ 40.0¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $6.50 on October 31, 2026?Lost
No$98 @ 16.4¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$34 @ 15.5¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$85 @ 23.0¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $4.00 and $4.50 on October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$77 @ 6.8¢
Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $1.00 and $1.25 on October 31, 2026?Lost
No$18 @ 39.4¢
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.50 and $0.55 on October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 16.3¢
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 15.7¢
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on October 31, 2026?Lost
No$80 @ 26.4¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be at least $5.50 on October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$24 @ 35.8¢
Microsoft announces a training pause by October 31?Lost
Yes$18 @ 14.9¢
Will SB Energy IPO by October 31, 2026?Won
No$71 @ 35.1¢
SpaceXAI announces a training pause by October 31?Lost
Yes$15 @ 13.9¢
Will STRC hit $100 by October 31?Won
No$122 @ 12.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Vance's Republican nomination odds hit 40% by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	25.0¢
Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.1k	88.0¢
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027?	Economy	No	$951	84.7¢
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?	Science	Yes	$852	20.7¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$840	84.0¢
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between December 16 and December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$772	90.3¢
Will Heated Rivalry rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched TV Shows of 2026?	Tech	No	$636	59.4¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$624	62.4¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.10% before 2027?	Economy	No	$598	75.9¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% before 2027?	Economy	Yes	$532	89.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$530	53.0¢
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $30 in 2026?	Tech	No	$505	77.2¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by December 31?	Tech	No	$488	80.4¢
Will Bad Bunny be the #2 searched person on Google this year?	Tech	No	$453	79.6¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.90% before 2027?	Economy	No	$427	88.7¢
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027?	Economy	No	$423	50.9¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $15B by December 31?	Tech	No	$421	69.8¢
Will SB Energy's market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?	Tech	No	$410	59.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Business	No	$370	21.9¢
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Science	No	$364	54.8¢
Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or below $5 in 2026?	Tech	No	$360	74.0¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 37M tonnes at end of November 2026?	Politics	Yes	$334	13.8¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$328	54.7¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $130 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$320	21.9¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Politics	No	$315	32.7¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Politics	No	$313	23.3¢
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between December 1 and December 15, 2026?	Politics	No	$312	78.9¢
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?	Science	No	$311	70.6¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $300B by December 31?	Other	No	$310	81.7¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $65 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$303	62.8¢

Vance's Republican nomination odds hit 40% by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 25.0¢
Jensen Huang divorce by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.1k @ 88.0¢
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027?Economy
No$951 @ 84.7¢
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 3.00 ft or more by November 30?Science
Yes$852 @ 20.7¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$840 @ 84.0¢
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between December 16 and December 31, 2026?Politics
No$772 @ 90.3¢
Will Heated Rivalry rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched TV Shows of 2026?Tech
No$636 @ 59.4¢
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
No$624 @ 62.4¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.10% before 2027?Economy
No$598 @ 75.9¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% before 2027?Economy
Yes$532 @ 89.0¢
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$530 @ 53.0¢
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $30 in 2026?Tech
No$505 @ 77.2¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by December 31?Tech
No$488 @ 80.4¢
Will Bad Bunny be the #2 searched person on Google this year?Tech
No$453 @ 79.6¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.90% before 2027?Economy
No$427 @ 88.7¢
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027?Economy
No$423 @ 50.9¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $15B by December 31?Tech
No$421 @ 69.8¢
Will SB Energy's market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?Tech
No$410 @ 59.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Business
No$370 @ 21.9¢
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?Science
No$364 @ 54.8¢
Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or below $5 in 2026?Tech
No$360 @ 74.0¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 37M tonnes at end of November 2026?Politics
Yes$334 @ 13.8¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$328 @ 54.7¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $130 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$320 @ 21.9¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of October 2026?Politics
No$315 @ 32.7¢
Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of October 2026?Politics
No$313 @ 23.3¢
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between December 1 and December 15, 2026?Politics
No$312 @ 78.9¢
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?Science
No$311 @ 70.6¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $300B by December 31?Other
No$310 @ 81.7¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $65 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$303 @ 62.8¢