0x4388…5050

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4388640a35b4ecebc33f8c73b58a2b988c615050
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.9pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

45% @ 42.2¢

Brier

0.191

Resolved

1691

Avg size

$52

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (261/539)	+21%	539
Sports	35% (12/34)	+4%	34
Politics	48% (14/29)	+8%	29
Tech	55% (12/22)	-10%	22
Science	63% (10/16)	-36%	16
Economy	56% (9/16)	+85%	16
Business	55% (6/11)	-20%	11
Culture	40% (2/5)	+11%	5
Geopolitics	33% (1/3)	-39%	3
Crypto	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other539 bets
Hit rate
48% (261/539)
ROI
+21%
Sports34 bets
Hit rate
35% (12/34)
ROI
+4%
Politics29 bets
Hit rate
48% (14/29)
ROI
+8%
Tech22 bets
Hit rate
55% (12/22)
ROI
-10%
Science16 bets
Hit rate
63% (10/16)
ROI
-36%
Economy16 bets
Hit rate
56% (9/16)
ROI
+85%
Business11 bets
Hit rate
55% (6/11)
ROI
-20%
Culture5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
+11%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-39%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

48% hit · 327/676

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$1	9.0¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$136	67.0¢	Won
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?	No	$86	33.5¢	Lost
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?	Yes	$541	56.3¢	Won
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11?	No	$22	21.7¢	Won
Will the most viewed episode of ABC World News Tonight for the week of August 10 - August 16 have between 9.5 million and 10 million viewers?	No	$159	50.5¢	Won
Will the most viewed episode of ABC World News Tonight for the week of August 10 - August 16 have between 9.5 million and 10 million viewers?	Yes	$7	34.0¢	Lost
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?	No	$45	39.1¢	Lost
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?	Yes	$111	27.1¢	Won
Will Innio's market cap be less than $17B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$4	0.8¢	Lost
Will Ariana Grande win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	Yes	$5	32.0¢	Lost
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15?	Yes	$32	79.0¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June?	No	$144	83.9¢	Won
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June?	Yes	$124	20.7¢	Lost
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10?	No	$121	25.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Coast Guard event?	No	$5	46.0¢	Lost
Will "European Union" be said during Eurovision?	No	$5	46.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Drone" this week?	Yes	$1	58.0¢	Won
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 8 2026?	Yes	$21	57.0¢	Won
Will Isack Hadjar achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?	Yes	$1	2.2¢	Lost
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 8?	Yes	$2	26.0¢	Lost
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?	No	$3	18.4¢	Lost
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15?	No	$32	78.5¢	Lost
Will the peak wave height at NY Harbor buoy 44065 be 14 ft or more?	Yes	$16	38.4¢	Won
Will NVIDIA say "Data Center" 20+ times during their next earnings call?	Yes	$7	68.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	$195	43.3¢	Lost
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$27	21.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with the 2026 National Football Champions?	Yes	$0	16.0¢	Lost
Will "Audit" be said during Eurovision?	No	$1	56.0¢	Won
Will Bernie say "Climate" in Maine?	No	$7	70.0¢	Lost
Will Oracle Q4 Cloud revenue be above $11B?	Yes	$8	11.5¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?	Yes	$952	65.7¢	Won
Will GE Vernova (GEV) Q2 orders be above $22B?	Yes	$41	25.4¢	Won
Will the peak wave height at NY Harbor buoy 44065 be 10 ft or more?	No	$6	10.0¢	Lost
Will the peak wave height at NY Harbor buoy 44065 be 10 ft or more?	Yes	$10	48.0¢	Won
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$128	66.6¢	Won
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?	No	$60	79.5¢	Won
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June?	No	$84	62.0¢	Won
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $22B and $25B at market close on IPO day?	No	$350	68.7¢	Won
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $22B and $25B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$62	21.5¢	Lost
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $40B?	No	$8	6.4¢	Lost
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $40B?	Yes	$506	57.1¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?	No	$87	87.0¢	Won
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.2B?	No	$13	12.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Chair" this week?	Yes	$1	58.0¢	Won
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals	No	$70	78.6¢	Lost
Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will the highest wind gust at NYC LaGuardia be 35 kt or more?	Yes	$25	62.0¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?	No	$48	50.0¢	Won
Will Warsh say "Unemployment" during swearing-in?	Yes	$5	52.0¢	Lost

Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$1 @ 9.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$136 @ 67.0¢
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?Lost
No$86 @ 33.5¢
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B?Won
Yes$541 @ 56.3¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11?Won
No$22 @ 21.7¢
Will the most viewed episode of ABC World News Tonight for the week of August 10 - August 16 have between 9.5 million and 10 million viewers?Won
No$159 @ 50.5¢
Will the most viewed episode of ABC World News Tonight for the week of August 10 - August 16 have between 9.5 million and 10 million viewers?Lost
Yes$7 @ 34.0¢
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?Lost
No$45 @ 39.1¢
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?Won
Yes$111 @ 27.1¢
Will Innio's market cap be less than $17B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.8¢
Will Ariana Grande win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?Lost
Yes$5 @ 32.0¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15?Won
Yes$32 @ 79.0¢
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June?Won
No$144 @ 83.9¢
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June?Lost
Yes$124 @ 20.7¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10?Lost
No$121 @ 25.6¢
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Coast Guard event?Lost
No$5 @ 46.0¢
Will "European Union" be said during Eurovision?Won
No$5 @ 46.0¢
Will Trump say "Drone" this week?Won
Yes$1 @ 58.0¢
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 8 2026?Won
Yes$21 @ 57.0¢
Will Isack Hadjar achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.2¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 8?Lost
Yes$2 @ 26.0¢
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?Lost
No$3 @ 18.4¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15?Lost
No$32 @ 78.5¢
Will the peak wave height at NY Harbor buoy 44065 be 14 ft or more?Won
Yes$16 @ 38.4¢
Will NVIDIA say "Data Center" 20+ times during their next earnings call?Won
Yes$7 @ 68.0¢
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?Lost
No$195 @ 43.3¢
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$27 @ 21.1¢
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with the 2026 National Football Champions?Lost
Yes$0 @ 16.0¢
Will "Audit" be said during Eurovision?Won
No$1 @ 56.0¢
Will Bernie say "Climate" in Maine?Lost
No$7 @ 70.0¢
Will Oracle Q4 Cloud revenue be above $11B?Lost
Yes$8 @ 11.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?Won
Yes$952 @ 65.7¢
Will GE Vernova (GEV) Q2 orders be above $22B?Won
Yes$41 @ 25.4¢
Will the peak wave height at NY Harbor buoy 44065 be 10 ft or more?Lost
No$6 @ 10.0¢
Will the peak wave height at NY Harbor buoy 44065 be 10 ft or more?Won
Yes$10 @ 48.0¢
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$128 @ 66.6¢
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?Won
No$60 @ 79.5¢
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June?Won
No$84 @ 62.0¢
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $22B and $25B at market close on IPO day?Won
No$350 @ 68.7¢
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $22B and $25B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$62 @ 21.5¢
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $40B?Lost
No$8 @ 6.4¢
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $40B?Won
Yes$506 @ 57.1¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
No$87 @ 87.0¢
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.2B?Lost
No$13 @ 12.0¢
Will Trump say "Chair" this week?Won
Yes$1 @ 58.0¢
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsLost
No$70 @ 78.6¢
Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will the highest wind gust at NYC LaGuardia be 35 kt or more?Won
Yes$25 @ 62.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 10?Won
No$48 @ 50.0¢
Will Warsh say "Unemployment" during swearing-in?Lost
Yes$5 @ 52.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 90 to 101 km/h in September?	Science	Yes	$1.9k	91.0¢
Will Heated Rivalry rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched TV Shows of 2026?	Tech	No	$581	61.8¢
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $30 in 2026?	Tech	No	$505	77.2¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% before 2027?	Economy	No	$501	74.2¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by December 31?	Tech	No	$488	80.4¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% before 2027?	Economy	No	$460	72.0¢
Will Bad Bunny be the #2 searched person on Google this year?	Tech	No	$453	79.6¢
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?	Science	No	$435	57.2¢
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	Science	Yes	$422	22.8¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $15B by December 31?	Tech	No	$421	69.8¢
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on September 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$420	72.7¢
Will SB Energy's market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?	Tech	No	$410	59.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	Business	No	$370	21.9¢
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Science	No	$364	54.8¢
Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or below $5 in 2026?	Tech	No	$360	74.0¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$328	54.7¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.90% before 2027?	Economy	No	$318	82.0¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $130 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$316	22.0¢
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?	Science	No	$311	70.6¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $300B by December 31?	Other	No	$310	81.7¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?	Economy	No	$306	54.3¢
Will Anthropic’s valuation be between $500B and $750B at the end of October 2026?	Other	No	$302	93.9¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$291	75.1¢
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0090 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$287	12.8¢
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $8.25B by September 30?	Other	No	$284	56.7¢
Will more than 625,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?	Science	No	$274	75.5¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$264	84.5¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% before 2027?	Economy	No	$263	61.9¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #2 searched person on Google this year?	Tech	No	$261	92.6¢
Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation fall below 1,028 ft?	Science	No	$260	46.1¢

Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 90 to 101 km/h in September?Science
Yes$1.9k @ 91.0¢
Will Heated Rivalry rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched TV Shows of 2026?Tech
No$581 @ 61.8¢
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $30 in 2026?Tech
No$505 @ 77.2¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% before 2027?Economy
No$501 @ 74.2¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by December 31?Tech
No$488 @ 80.4¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% before 2027?Economy
No$460 @ 72.0¢
Will Bad Bunny be the #2 searched person on Google this year?Tech
No$453 @ 79.6¢
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?Science
No$435 @ 57.2¢
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?Science
Yes$422 @ 22.8¢
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $15B by December 31?Tech
No$421 @ 69.8¢
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on September 30, 2026?Tech
No$420 @ 72.7¢
Will SB Energy's market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?Tech
No$410 @ 59.8¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Business
No$370 @ 21.9¢
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?Science
No$364 @ 54.8¢
Will Claude Sonnet's output price be at or below $5 in 2026?Tech
No$360 @ 74.0¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$328 @ 54.7¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.90% before 2027?Economy
No$318 @ 82.0¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $130 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$316 @ 22.0¢
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?Science
No$311 @ 70.6¢
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $300B by December 31?Other
No$310 @ 81.7¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?Economy
No$306 @ 54.3¢
Will Anthropic’s valuation be between $500B and $750B at the end of October 2026?Other
No$302 @ 93.9¢
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$291 @ 75.1¢
Will Pump.fun reach $0.0090 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$287 @ 12.8¢
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $8.25B by September 30?Other
No$284 @ 56.7¢
Will more than 625,000 Chinook pass Bonneville Dam by October 31?Science
No$274 @ 75.5¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $3.50 and $4.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech
No$264 @ 84.5¢
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% before 2027?Economy
No$263 @ 61.9¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the #2 searched person on Google this year?Tech
No$261 @ 92.6¢
Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation fall below 1,028 ft?Science
No$260 @ 46.1¢