0x4344…f90d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x43440ab002eaac9fede6f9d21bea96d84228f90d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.2pp

ROI

+78%

Win rate

30% @ 20.2¢

Brier

0.169

Resolved

3344

Avg size

$65

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	41% (135/332)	+91%	332
Politics	41% (38/93)	-5%	93
Geopolitics	6% (1/16)	-95%	16
Tech	100% (1/1)	+48%	1
Sports	100% (1/1)	+0%	1
Science	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+1%	1

Other332 bets
Hit rate
41% (135/332)
ROI
+91%
Politics93 bets
Hit rate
41% (38/93)
ROI
-5%
Geopolitics16 bets
Hit rate
6% (1/16)
ROI
-95%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+48%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+0%
Science1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+1%

Track record

40% hit · 177/445

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	Yes	$130	26.0¢	Won
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?	Yes	$270	27.0¢	Won
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?	Yes	$1	10.4¢	Lost
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 3, 2026?	No	$1.5k	73.6¢	Won
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 3, 2026?	Yes	$10	0.2¢	Lost
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?	No	$408	68.4¢	Won
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?	Yes	$592	18.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during National Agriculture Day events?	Yes	$3	0.5¢	Lost
Will John Fetterman attend the 2026 State of the Union address?	No	$18	1.4¢	Lost
Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?	Yes	$8	2.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$2.2k	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Ursula von der Leyen in January 2026?	No	$35	15.2¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Ursula von der Leyen in January 2026?	Yes	$765	55.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$161	10.6¢	Won
Will Mitch McConnell attend the 2026 State of the Union address?	No	$30	13.3¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	Yes	$133	6.0¢	Lost
Weed rescheduled by March 31?	Yes	$129	30.0¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?	No	$247	39.5¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?	Yes	$261	79.6¢	Won
T20 World Cup: India vs South Africa	South Africa	$193	75.0¢	Won
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?	Yes	$390	32.2¢	Lost
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?	Yes	$69	30.0¢	Won
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31?	No	$6	5.5¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	No	$3.2k	81.7¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$5.0k	21.5¢	Won
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	$367	4.6¢	Lost
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	$618	37.1¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in September 2026?	No	$42	25.1¢	Lost
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?	No	$18	25.4¢	Won
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?	Yes	$240	27.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$7.0k	4.6¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March?	Yes	$21	4.8¢	Won
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary and General Elections?	Yes	$7	4.2¢	Lost
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$121	12.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$130	26.0¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	No	$144	1.3¢	Lost
Will Amy Coney Barrett attend the 2026 State of the Union address?	No	$3	7.0¢	Lost
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	$140	68.9¢	Won
Will Trump shake hands with Friedrich Merz at the World Economic Forum?	No	$48	82.8¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31?	Yes	$18	2.8¢	Lost
Maduro trial scheduled by January 31?	No	$394	67.4¢	Won
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$184	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump post "Happy Easter" on Truth Social this week?	No	$68	7.2¢	Lost
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	Yes	$347	15.0¢	Lost
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	Yes	$85	17.0¢	Lost
Will Trump shake hands with Guy Parmelin at the World Economic Forum?	Yes	$128	84.7¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	Yes	$312	27.8¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with King of Morocco Mohammed VI in March 2026?	No	$334	71.8¢	Won
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$441	68.0¢	Won
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31?	Yes	$14	2.8¢	Lost

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?Won
Yes$130 @ 26.0¢
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?Won
Yes$270 @ 27.0¢
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.4¢
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 3, 2026?Won
No$1.5k @ 73.6¢
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.2¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?Won
No$408 @ 68.4¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?Lost
Yes$592 @ 18.5¢
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during National Agriculture Day events?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.5¢
Will John Fetterman attend the 2026 State of the Union address?Lost
No$18 @ 1.4¢
Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?Lost
Yes$8 @ 2.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$2.2k @ 89.0¢
Will Trump meet with Ursula von der Leyen in January 2026?Won
No$35 @ 15.2¢
Will Trump meet with Ursula von der Leyen in January 2026?Lost
Yes$765 @ 55.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Won
No$161 @ 10.6¢
Will Mitch McConnell attend the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
No$30 @ 13.3¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Lost
Yes$133 @ 6.0¢
Weed rescheduled by March 31?Lost
Yes$129 @ 30.0¢
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?Lost
No$247 @ 39.5¢
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?Won
Yes$261 @ 79.6¢
T20 World Cup: India vs South AfricaWon
South Africa$193 @ 75.0¢
Israel x Syria security agreement by March 31?Lost
Yes$390 @ 32.2¢
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Won
Yes$69 @ 30.0¢
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by December 31?Lost
No$6 @ 5.5¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Lost
No$3.2k @ 81.7¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$5.0k @ 21.5¢
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Lost
No$367 @ 4.6¢
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$618 @ 37.1¢
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in September 2026?Lost
No$42 @ 25.1¢
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?Won
No$18 @ 25.4¢
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?Lost
Yes$240 @ 27.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$7.0k @ 4.6¢
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March?Won
Yes$21 @ 4.8¢
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary and General Elections?Lost
Yes$7 @ 4.2¢
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
No$121 @ 12.0¢
Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during the 2026 State of the Union address?Lost
Yes$130 @ 26.0¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
No$144 @ 1.3¢
Will Amy Coney Barrett attend the 2026 State of the Union address?Lost
No$3 @ 7.0¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Won
No$140 @ 68.9¢
Will Trump shake hands with Friedrich Merz at the World Economic Forum?Won
No$48 @ 82.8¢
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31?Lost
Yes$18 @ 2.8¢
Maduro trial scheduled by January 31?Won
No$394 @ 67.4¢
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$184 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump post "Happy Easter" on Truth Social this week?Lost
No$68 @ 7.2¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Lost
Yes$347 @ 15.0¢
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Lost
Yes$85 @ 17.0¢
Will Trump shake hands with Guy Parmelin at the World Economic Forum?Won
Yes$128 @ 84.7¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Lost
Yes$312 @ 27.8¢
Will Trump meet with King of Morocco Mohammed VI in March 2026?Won
No$334 @ 71.8¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$441 @ 68.0¢
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31?Lost
Yes$14 @ 2.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$85.0k	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$85.0k	50.0¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$22.9k	93.7¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.1k	93.8¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Politics	No	$2.5k	19.2¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Politics	No	$1.6k	68.2¢
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.4k	16.5¢
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.3k	13.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.3k	58.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$798	37.7¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$705	20.2¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$677	7.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$653	3.0¢
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$638	29.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$600	31.4¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	Yes	$595	3.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$566	21.0¢
Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	No	$562	88.5¢
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$482	71.0¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$408	17.4¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$392	25.8¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$331	35.5¢
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?	Politics	No	$321	81.0¢
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$315	16.1¢
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$287	13.3¢
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$262	13.4¢
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$189	15.2¢
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$169	11.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$155	31.0¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$150	15.0¢

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$85.0k @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$85.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$22.9k @ 93.7¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$3.1k @ 93.8¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Politics
No$2.5k @ 19.2¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Politics
No$1.6k @ 68.2¢
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$1.4k @ 16.5¢
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$1.3k @ 13.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$1.3k @ 58.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$798 @ 37.7¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Politics
Yes$705 @ 20.2¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$677 @ 7.0¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$653 @ 3.0¢
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?Politics
Yes$638 @ 29.5¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$600 @ 31.4¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
Yes$595 @ 3.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$566 @ 21.0¢
Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
No$562 @ 88.5¢
Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?Politics
Yes$482 @ 71.0¢
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?Politics
Yes$408 @ 17.4¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$392 @ 25.8¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Politics
Yes$331 @ 35.5¢
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?Politics
No$321 @ 81.0¢
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$315 @ 16.1¢
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$287 @ 13.3¢
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$262 @ 13.4¢
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027?Politics
Yes$189 @ 15.2¢
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?Politics
Yes$169 @ 11.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$155 @ 31.0¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$150 @ 15.0¢