← Smart money
0x42c1…559f
SharpEdge
+26.2pp
ROI
+42%
Win rate
83% @ 57.2¢
Brier
0.189
Resolved
36
Avg size
$31
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 63% (5/8) | +31% | 8 |
| Politics | 100% (3/3) | +62% | 3 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +12% | 1 |
- Other8 bets
- Hit rate
- 63% (5/8)
- ROI
- +31%
- Politics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (3/3)
- ROI
- +62%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +12%
Track record
75% hit · 9/12| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by January 31, 2026? | No | $211 | 73.4¢ | Won |
| Will Russia capture Toretske by March 31, 2026? | No | $231 | 77.0¢ | Won |
| Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by February 28? | No | $26 | 22.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? | No | $100 | 47.1¢ | Won |
| Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by February 28, 2026? | No | $89 | 60.8¢ | Won |
| Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by April 30? | No | $2 | 89.0¢ | Won |
| Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? | No | $9 | 36.8¢ | Won |
| Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28? | No | $10 | 74.0¢ | Lost |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28? | No | $14 | 28.0¢ | Won |
| Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? | No | $83 | 55.3¢ | Won |
| Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by January 31? | No | $319 | 74.4¢ | Won |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31? | No | $37 | 58.0¢ | Lost |
- No$211 @ 73.4¢
- No$231 @ 77.0¢
- No$26 @ 22.0¢
- No$100 @ 47.1¢
- No$89 @ 60.8¢
- No$2 @ 89.0¢
- No$9 @ 36.8¢
- No$10 @ 74.0¢
- No$14 @ 28.0¢
- No$83 @ 55.3¢
- No$319 @ 74.4¢
- No$37 @ 58.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | Politics | No | $475 | 87.0¢ |
- No$475 @ 87.0¢