0x429a…8070

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x429aff1255d8bcabe0ad46f610f8b03034e68070
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.2pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

27% @ 18.6¢

Brier

0.157

Resolved

483

Avg size

$73

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	35% (62/178)	+15%	178
Tech	0% (0/9)	-100%	9
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Other178 bets
Hit rate
35% (62/178)
ROI
+15%
Tech9 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/9)
ROI
-100%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

33% hit · 62/189

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?	No	$2.5k	17.3¢	Lost
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	$18	43.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Reagan" during Michigan rally on Nov 4?	No	$76	35.0¢	Lost
Solana above $210 on November 22?	No	$0	3.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "border" 20 or more during Greensboro, NC rally?	No	$75	34.9¢	Won
Bitcoin above $70,000 on November 8?	No	$50	2.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?	Yes	$50	10.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk speak at Trump's Pennsylvania rally Saturday?	No	$170	18.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "NYPD" during New York rally on October 27?	No	$50	14.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "god" 4 or more during Greensboro, NC rally?	Yes	$9	85.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Front Row Joe" during Greensboro, NC rally?	No	$50	54.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "too big to rig" 2 or more times during New York rally on October 27?	Yes	$81	33.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "China" 3 or more times at debate?	No	$6	3.0¢	Lost
Ripple above $2.39 on December 13?	No	$68	33.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "border" 30 or more times during Nevada rally on Oct 31?	Yes	$20	5.0¢	Lost
East coast port strike ends by next Friday?	No	$100	1.0¢	Lost
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?	Yes	$965	12.6¢	Lost
Will 'Moana 2' gross between $165-180m on 5-day opening weekend?	Yes	$48	2.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Starlink" during Pennsylvania rally on October 19?	Yes	$247	45.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Iran on Tuesday?	Yes	$21	10.0¢	Lost
Iran military response by Sunday?	Yes	$10	27.0¢	Lost
Will 'Sonic 3' gross more than $80m on 3-day opening weekend?	Yes	$190	11.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump say "inflation" 10 or more times during his North Carolina speech?	No	$195	21.9¢	Won
Will 'Moana 2' gross between $150-165m on 5-day opening weekend?	Yes	$50	10.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday?	Yes	$5	3.1¢	Lost
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?	Yes	$600	25.0¢	Lost
Israel military response against Iran in October?	No	$201	33.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called?	No	$208	14.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during Georgia speech on Oct 15?	No	$29	62.0¢	Won
Israel military response against Iran by Sunday?	No	$370	62.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "debate" during North Carolina town hall?	No	$150	31.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "tampon" during New York rally on October 27?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?	No	$3	1.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Peanut" or "Squirrel" during North Carolina rally on Nov 3?	No	$200	83.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Elon" during NBC interview?	No	$66	30.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Kamala" 10 or more times during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20?	Yes	$125	19.7¢	Lost
Will $POPCAT be listed first on Binance?	Yes	$123	9.9¢	Lost
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$32	12.2¢	Lost
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?	Yes	$967	51.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "god" 4 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?	Yes	$100	15.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "border" 20 or more times during Michigan rally on Nov 4?	No	$100	34.0¢	Lost
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$49	1.6¢	Lost
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 6, 2026?	Yes	$5	1.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Border" 20 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on October 9?	No	$5	13.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 25?	Yes	$57	7.5¢	Won
Bitcoin above $90,000 on November 22?	No	$50	16.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Border" in his speech after the election is called?	No	$224	22.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "border" 30 or more times during Virginia rally on Nov 2?	Yes	$35	13.5¢	Lost
Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin in 2024?	No	$2.2k	13.4¢	Lost
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $72-80m on 3-day opening weekend?	Yes	$18	7.0¢	Lost

Israeli forces enters Lebanon in September?Lost
No$2.5k @ 17.3¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 43.0¢
Will Trump say "Reagan" during Michigan rally on Nov 4?Lost
No$76 @ 35.0¢
Solana above $210 on November 22?Lost
No$0 @ 3.0¢
Will Trump say "border" 20 or more during Greensboro, NC rally?Won
No$75 @ 34.9¢
Bitcoin above $70,000 on November 8?Lost
No$50 @ 2.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?Lost
Yes$50 @ 10.8¢
Will Elon Musk speak at Trump's Pennsylvania rally Saturday?Lost
No$170 @ 18.5¢
Will Trump say "NYPD" during New York rally on October 27?Won
No$50 @ 14.0¢
Will Trump say "god" 4 or more during Greensboro, NC rally?Won
Yes$9 @ 85.0¢
Will Trump say "Front Row Joe" during Greensboro, NC rally?Lost
No$50 @ 54.0¢
Will Trump say "too big to rig" 2 or more times during New York rally on October 27?Lost
Yes$81 @ 33.9¢
Will Trump say "China" 3 or more times at debate?Lost
No$6 @ 3.0¢
Ripple above $2.39 on December 13?Lost
No$68 @ 33.0¢
Will Trump say "border" 30 or more times during Nevada rally on Oct 31?Lost
Yes$20 @ 5.0¢
East coast port strike ends by next Friday?Lost
No$100 @ 1.0¢
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?Lost
Yes$965 @ 12.6¢
Will 'Moana 2' gross between $165-180m on 5-day opening weekend?Lost
Yes$48 @ 2.4¢
Will Trump say "Starlink" during Pennsylvania rally on October 19?Won
Yes$247 @ 45.0¢
Will Israel strike Iran on Tuesday?Lost
Yes$21 @ 10.0¢
Iran military response by Sunday?Lost
Yes$10 @ 27.0¢
Will 'Sonic 3' gross more than $80m on 3-day opening weekend?Lost
Yes$190 @ 11.9¢
Will Donald Trump say "inflation" 10 or more times during his North Carolina speech?Won
No$195 @ 21.9¢
Will 'Moana 2' gross between $150-165m on 5-day opening weekend?Lost
Yes$50 @ 10.0¢
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday?Lost
Yes$5 @ 3.1¢
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024?Lost
Yes$600 @ 25.0¢
Israel military response against Iran in October?Lost
No$201 @ 33.4¢
Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called?Won
No$208 @ 14.8¢
Will Trump say "China" 10 or more times during Georgia speech on Oct 15?Won
No$29 @ 62.0¢
Israel military response against Iran by Sunday?Won
No$370 @ 62.0¢
Will Trump say "debate" during North Carolina town hall?Won
No$150 @ 31.0¢
Will Trump say "tampon" during New York rally on October 27?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?Lost
No$3 @ 1.0¢
Will Trump say "Peanut" or "Squirrel" during North Carolina rally on Nov 3?Won
No$200 @ 83.3¢
Will Trump say "Elon" during NBC interview?Won
No$66 @ 30.0¢
Will Trump say "Kamala" 10 or more times during Pennsylvania town hall on October 20?Lost
Yes$125 @ 19.7¢
Will $POPCAT be listed first on Binance?Lost
Yes$123 @ 9.9¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$32 @ 12.2¢
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?Won
Yes$967 @ 51.5¢
Will Trump say "god" 4 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?Lost
Yes$100 @ 15.0¢
Will Trump say "border" 20 or more times during Michigan rally on Nov 4?Lost
No$100 @ 34.0¢
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$49 @ 1.6¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.8¢
Will Trump say "Border" 20 or more times during Pennsylvania rally on October 9?Won
No$5 @ 13.0¢
Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 25?Won
Yes$57 @ 7.5¢
Bitcoin above $90,000 on November 22?Lost
No$50 @ 16.0¢
Will Trump say "Border" in his speech after the election is called?Lost
No$224 @ 22.6¢
Will Trump say "border" 30 or more times during Virginia rally on Nov 2?Lost
Yes$35 @ 13.5¢
Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin in 2024?Lost
No$2.2k @ 13.4¢
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $72-80m on 3-day opening weekend?Lost
Yes$18 @ 7.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Jerome Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?	—	No	$400	44.4¢
Israel strike on Iran on June 14?	—	No	$172	9.9¢
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?	—	No	$159	54.3¢
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?	—	Yes	$62	23.2¢
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	—	Yes	$54	4.9¢
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$47	1.6¢
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	—	Yes	$40	4.2¢
Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?	—	Yes	$25	2.3¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?	—	Yes	$20	0.7¢
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $72-80m on 3-day opening weekend?	—	Yes	$18	7.0¢
Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?	—	Yes	$12	1.2¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 7, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$9	1.2¢
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Tech	No	$7	1.8¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 27, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$4	0.7¢
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 20, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2	0.7¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 20, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	1.2¢

Will Jerome Powell say "cut" 7 or more times during December FOMC Press Conference?—
No$400 @ 44.4¢
Israel strike on Iran on June 14?—
No$172 @ 9.9¢
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?—
No$159 @ 54.3¢
Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference?—
Yes$62 @ 23.2¢
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?—
Yes$54 @ 4.9¢
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$47 @ 1.6¢
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"?—
Yes$40 @ 4.2¢
Will OpenAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026?—
Yes$25 @ 2.3¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?—
Yes$20 @ 0.7¢
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $72-80m on 3-day opening weekend?—
Yes$18 @ 7.0¢
Will OpenAI have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?—
Yes$12 @ 1.2¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 7, 2026?Tech
Yes$9 @ 1.2¢
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?Tech
No$7 @ 1.8¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 27, 2026?Tech
Yes$4 @ 0.7¢
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 20, 2026?Tech
Yes$2 @ 0.7¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on October 20, 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 1.2¢