0x4284…4e8c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x42840854a24784402c8951c141e0866d7aa54e8c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

ProfitableSniper

Edge

+9.4pp

ROI

+53%

Win rate

27% @ 17.7¢

Brier

0.155

Resolved

431

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	17% (26/154)	+68%	154
Politics	20% (1/5)	+9%	5
Tech	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Sports	75% (3/4)	+56%	4
Science	100% (4/4)	+1%	4
Economy	50% (1/2)	+21%	2
Crypto	50% (1/2)	-66%	2

Other154 bets
Hit rate
17% (26/154)
ROI
+68%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
+9%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+56%
Science4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+1%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+21%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-66%

Track record

21% hit · 36/175

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-2.5)	CD Riestra	$7	74.5¢	Lost
Will San Diego FC vs. Austin FC end in a draw?	Yes	$5	8.8¢	Lost
Spread: FC Arouca (-1.5)	Gil Vicente FC	$1	25.0¢	Lost
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $30B and $40B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Spread: Spurs (-10.5)	Spurs	$3	2.0¢	Lost
Spread: Eyüpspor (-1.5)	Çaykur Rizespor	$0	4.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 15?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Viborg FF win on 2026-05-04?	Yes	$0	4.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 15?	Yes	$0	3.0¢	Lost
Spread: FC Andorra (-2.5)	UD Las Palmas	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Spread: FC Fredericia (-1.5)	FC Fredericia	$0	3.0¢	Lost
Al Ittihad Saudi Club vs. Al Kholood Saudi Club: O/U 1.5	Over	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-05-13?	No	$2	29.0¢	Lost
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13?	Yes	$10	23.0¢	Lost
Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)	Club Blooming	$0	4.0¢	Lost
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-13?	No	$11	17.1¢	Lost
Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)	Sevilla FC	$3	61.0¢	Won
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	6.7¢	Lost
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)	RB Leipzig	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Will Beşiktaş JK vs. Trabzonspor end in a draw?	Yes	$10	11.0¢	Lost
Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-1.5)	Vissel Kōbe	$3	57.0¢	Lost
Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5)	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	$0	6.0¢	Lost
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?	Yes	$10	21.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$3	60.0¢	Won
Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)	Juventus FC	$12	29.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will Falkirk FC vs. Hibernian FC end in a draw?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Spread: Kilmarnock FC (-1.5)	Dundee FC	$1	25.0¢	Lost
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-05-13?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Lost
Will Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK end in a draw?	Yes	$1	12.0¢	Lost
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-05-13?	Yes	$1	17.0¢	Lost
Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-05-07?	No	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Spread: D.C. United SC (-1.5)	D.C. United SC	$1	3.0¢	Lost
Spread: Stade de Reims (-2.5)	Pau FC	$4	73.0¢	Won
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-13?	Yes	$18	28.4¢	Won
Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5)	Seattle Sounders FC	$1	4.8¢	Lost
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Aberdeen FC vs. Dundee United FC end in a draw?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Spread: CA Belgrano (-1.5)	CA Unión	$6	57.0¢	Lost
Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-1.5)	SV 07 Elversberg	$1	27.0¢	Lost
Will Calcio Padova win on 2026-05-08?	No	$1	24.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$6	37.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	$2	3.5¢	Lost
Spread: JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-1.5)	FC Tōkyō	$3	57.0¢	Lost
Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?	Yes	$1	15.0¢	Lost
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-09?	No	$1	23.0¢	Won
Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5)	Tigres de la UANL	$1	11.0¢	Lost

Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-2.5)Lost
CD Riestra$7 @ 74.5¢
Will San Diego FC vs. Austin FC end in a draw?Lost
Yes$5 @ 8.8¢
Spread: FC Arouca (-1.5)Lost
Gil Vicente FC$1 @ 25.0¢
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $30B and $40B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Lost
Spurs$3 @ 2.0¢
Spread: Eyüpspor (-1.5)Lost
Çaykur Rizespor$0 @ 4.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 15?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Viborg FF win on 2026-05-04?Lost
Yes$0 @ 4.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 15?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.0¢
Spread: FC Andorra (-2.5)Lost
UD Las Palmas$1 @ 14.0¢
Spread: FC Fredericia (-1.5)Lost
FC Fredericia$0 @ 3.0¢
Al Ittihad Saudi Club vs. Al Kholood Saudi Club: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$0 @ 1.0¢
Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-05-13?Lost
No$2 @ 29.0¢
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13?Lost
Yes$10 @ 23.0¢
Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)Lost
Club Blooming$0 @ 4.0¢
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-13?Lost
No$11 @ 17.1¢
Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)Won
Sevilla FC$3 @ 61.0¢
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 6.7¢
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5)Lost
RB Leipzig$1 @ 14.0¢
Will Beşiktaş JK vs. Trabzonspor end in a draw?Lost
Yes$10 @ 11.0¢
Spread: Fagiano Okayama (-1.5)Lost
Vissel Kōbe$3 @ 57.0¢
Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-1.5)Lost
Vancouver Whitecaps FC$0 @ 6.0¢
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?Won
Yes$10 @ 21.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$3 @ 60.0¢
Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)Won
Juventus FC$12 @ 29.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢
Will Falkirk FC vs. Hibernian FC end in a draw?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Spread: Kilmarnock FC (-1.5)Lost
Dundee FC$1 @ 25.0¢
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-05-13?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
Will Gençlerbirliği SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK end in a draw?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.0¢
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-05-13?Lost
Yes$1 @ 17.0¢
Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-05-07?Lost
No$1 @ 6.0¢
Spread: D.C. United SC (-1.5)Lost
D.C. United SC$1 @ 3.0¢
Spread: Stade de Reims (-2.5)Won
Pau FC$4 @ 73.0¢
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-13?Won
Yes$18 @ 28.4¢
Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5)Lost
Seattle Sounders FC$1 @ 4.8¢
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Aberdeen FC vs. Dundee United FC end in a draw?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
Spread: CA Belgrano (-1.5)Lost
CA Unión$6 @ 57.0¢
Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-1.5)Lost
SV 07 Elversberg$1 @ 27.0¢
Will Calcio Padova win on 2026-05-08?Lost
No$1 @ 24.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$6 @ 37.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.5¢
Spread: JEF United Ichihara Chiba (-1.5)Lost
FC Tōkyō$3 @ 57.0¢
Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?Lost
Yes$1 @ 15.0¢
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-09?Won
No$1 @ 23.0¢
Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5)Lost
Tigres de la UANL$1 @ 11.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	—	Yes	$22	41.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	—	Yes	$13	39.4¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	—	Yes	$3	44.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$2	28.0¢

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?—
Yes$22 @ 41.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?—
Yes$13 @ 39.4¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?—
Yes$3 @ 44.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$2 @ 28.0¢