0x426a…1376

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x426ad8df074058e04606afbe4234747e83471376
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.5pp

ROI

+26%

Win rate

32% @ 27.0¢

Brier

0.143

Resolved

290

Avg size

$10

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	48% (21/44)	+0%	44
Politics	50% (3/6)	-6%	6
Sports	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+431%	1
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other44 bets
Hit rate
48% (21/44)
ROI
+0%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
-6%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+431%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

45% hit · 25/56

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$38	49.4¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	Yes	$39	85.0¢	Won
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	$44	34.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on March 31?	Yes	$13	11.8¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$5	26.5¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$61	26.9¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?	Yes	$22	10.5¢	Won
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	Yes	$31	89.5¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$117	80.3¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$39	24.5¢	Lost
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$146	2.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$380	77.2¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$246	18.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1)	Yes	$12	51.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?	No	$16	42.7¢	Won
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?	No	$3	82.9¢	Won
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$101	32.3¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$22	64.0¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$58	86.2¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$22	23.7¢	Lost
Will there be fewer than 2 major space weather events this week?	Yes	$63	39.2¢	Lost
US strikes Iraq by February 28?	Yes	$6	14.9¢	Won
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26?	Yes	$21	43.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Where is" 3+ times during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?	Yes	$15	8.7¢	Lost
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 Truist Championship?	Yes	$17	17.3¢	Won
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$187	78.0¢	Won
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$7	0.9¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	$132	14.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on March 31?	Yes	$13	10.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	No	$62	63.2¢	Won
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?	No	$19	30.6¢	Lost
Will Sweden win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$11	6.0¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	$6	25.6¢	Lost
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	$50	1.9¢	Lost
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?	No	$15	89.2¢	Won
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament?	Yes	$33	5.5¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	No	$66	52.7¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 8?	Yes	$8	53.1¢	Won
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	$3	75.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	$153	57.3¢	Won
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week?	Yes	$14	10.9¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	No	$19	10.0¢	Lost
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Yes	$10	4.1¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?	Yes	$3	79.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	Yes	$30	19.8¢	Lost
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament?	Yes	$46	2.4¢	Lost
Will Trump post "POTUS" this week on Truth Social?	No	$18	62.0¢	Lost
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Yes	$10	1.9¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31?	No	$100	75.6¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$75	39.3¢	Lost

Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$38 @ 49.4¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Won
Yes$39 @ 85.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Lost
Yes$44 @ 34.0¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on March 31?Lost
Yes$13 @ 11.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 26.5¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$61 @ 26.9¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $640b and $650b on March 31?Won
Yes$22 @ 10.5¢
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Won
Yes$31 @ 89.5¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$117 @ 80.3¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$39 @ 24.5¢
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$146 @ 2.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$380 @ 77.2¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$246 @ 18.8¢
Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1)Won
Yes$12 @ 51.0¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?Won
No$16 @ 42.7¢
Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?Won
No$3 @ 82.9¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$101 @ 32.3¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$22 @ 64.0¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$58 @ 86.2¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
Yes$22 @ 23.7¢
Will there be fewer than 2 major space weather events this week?Lost
Yes$63 @ 39.2¢
US strikes Iraq by February 28?Won
Yes$6 @ 14.9¢
Will Sweden win on 2026-03-26?Won
Yes$21 @ 43.0¢
Will Trump say "Where is" 3+ times during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?Lost
Yes$15 @ 8.7¢
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 Truist Championship?Won
Yes$17 @ 17.3¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$187 @ 78.0¢
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$7 @ 0.9¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
No$132 @ 14.0¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on March 31?Lost
Yes$13 @ 10.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?Won
No$62 @ 63.2¢
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?Lost
No$19 @ 30.6¢
Will Sweden win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$11 @ 6.0¢
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?Lost
No$6 @ 25.6¢
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?Lost
Yes$50 @ 1.9¢
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?Won
No$15 @ 89.2¢
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament?Lost
Yes$33 @ 5.5¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Won
No$66 @ 52.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 8?Won
Yes$8 @ 53.1¢
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Won
Yes$3 @ 75.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
No$153 @ 57.3¢
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week?Lost
Yes$14 @ 10.9¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?Lost
No$19 @ 10.0¢
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship?Lost
Yes$10 @ 4.1¢
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March?Lost
Yes$3 @ 79.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$30 @ 19.8¢
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament?Lost
Yes$46 @ 2.4¢
Will Trump post "POTUS" this week on Truth Social?Lost
No$18 @ 62.0¢
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 PGA Championship?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.9¢
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31?Won
No$100 @ 75.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$75 @ 39.3¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	Sports	Yes	$450	35.1¢
Will Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 150m by August 31?	—	No	$207	88.4¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?	—	Yes	$122	88.1¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Politics	No	$101	33.9¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	—	No	$86	47.5¢
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?	—	No	$53	86.9¢
Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?	Sports	Yes	$14	0.4¢
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?	—	Yes	$8	12.7¢

Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?Sports
Yes$450 @ 35.1¢
Will Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 150m by August 31?—
No$207 @ 88.4¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?—
Yes$122 @ 88.1¢
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Politics
No$101 @ 33.9¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?—
No$86 @ 47.5¢
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?—
No$53 @ 86.9¢
Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?Sports
Yes$14 @ 0.4¢
Will Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?—
Yes$8 @ 12.7¢