0x4262…0ef2

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4262c6daf3103188f5b0ade4b61326f09cbb0ef2
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.9pp

ROI

+77%

Win rate

24% @ 13.5¢

Brier

0.146

Resolved

Avg size

$60

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	17% (4/24)	+44%	24
Other	21% (5/24)	+71%	24
Sports	20% (2/10)	+56%	10

Politics24 bets
Hit rate
17% (4/24)
ROI
+44%
Other24 bets
Hit rate
21% (5/24)
ROI
+71%
Sports10 bets
Hit rate
20% (2/10)
ROI
+56%

Track record

19% hit · 11/58

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	$93	23.2¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	$360	34.7¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	$64	16.5¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	$69	5.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	$300	27.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	$304	13.2¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	$436	17.8¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	$226	10.7¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	$9	0.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	$15	0.4¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	$70	2.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	$69	2.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	$115	5.2¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	$9	0.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	$9	0.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	$38	1.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	$210	20.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	$350	33.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	$100	13.5¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	$548	38.4¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	$453	32.2¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	$20	1.3¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 500m and 600m by August 31?	Yes	$107	2.9¢	Lost
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 16, 2026?	Yes	$10	10.6¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$15	20.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 17, 2026?	No	$11	16.3¢	Lost
Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	$10	1.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	Yes	$37	7.7¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?	Yes	$204	8.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?	Yes	$476	17.0¢	Lost
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$21	2.9¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?	Yes	$18	1.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	$16	0.1¢	Lost
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$20	18.8¢	Won
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$12	6.0¢	Lost
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	No	$149	0.2¢	Lost
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	$128	17.2¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	Yes	$63	3.3¢	Lost
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?	No	$149	28.0¢	Lost
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 24, 2026?	Yes	$42	4.7¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 20, 2026?	No	$192	23.7¢	Won
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?	No	$226	3.8¢	Lost
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$20	32.2¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?	Yes	$16	1.4¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	$10	73.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 16, 2026?	No	$86	28.2¢	Won
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026?	Yes	$159	7.5¢	Lost
Will BTS perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	$6	3.9¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	$68	2.9¢	Lost
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 600m and 700m by August 31?	Yes	$169	5.6¢	Lost

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Won
Yes$93 @ 23.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$360 @ 34.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$64 @ 16.5¢
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$69 @ 5.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$300 @ 27.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?Won
Yes$304 @ 13.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Won
Yes$436 @ 17.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$226 @ 10.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 0.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$70 @ 2.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$69 @ 2.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$115 @ 5.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$38 @ 1.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$210 @ 20.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$350 @ 33.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 13.5¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$548 @ 38.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$453 @ 32.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 1.3¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 500m and 600m by August 31?Lost
Yes$107 @ 2.9¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 16, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.6¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$15 @ 20.1¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 17, 2026?Lost
No$11 @ 16.3¢
Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?Lost
No$10 @ 1.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$37 @ 7.7¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?Lost
Yes$204 @ 8.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?Lost
Yes$476 @ 17.0¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$21 @ 2.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 1.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 0.1¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$20 @ 18.8¢
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$12 @ 6.0¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Lost
No$149 @ 0.2¢
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Won
Yes$128 @ 17.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$63 @ 3.3¢
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$149 @ 28.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$42 @ 4.7¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 20, 2026?Won
No$192 @ 23.7¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?Lost
No$226 @ 3.8¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$20 @ 32.2¢
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?Lost
Yes$16 @ 1.4¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?Won
Yes$10 @ 73.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 16, 2026?Won
No$86 @ 28.2¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$159 @ 7.5¢
Will BTS perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?Lost
No$6 @ 3.9¢
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$68 @ 2.9¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 600m and 700m by August 31?Lost
Yes$169 @ 5.6¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$80	11.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$35	5.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$24	23.2¢
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$10	0.5¢
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$10	0.5¢

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Politics
Yes$80 @ 11.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Politics
Yes$35 @ 5.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?Politics
Yes$24 @ 23.2¢
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$10 @ 0.5¢
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$10 @ 0.5¢