0x4262…abaa

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x426227d4a9c4ad5a1aae7f2706238f2154b9abaa
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.6pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

64% @ 59.5¢

Brier

0.160

Resolved

2197

Avg size

$31

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	64% (277/434)	+8%	434
Politics	61% (68/112)	+1%	112
Sports	57% (23/40)	+3%	40
Geopolitics	67% (6/9)	-27%	9
Tech	63% (5/8)	+14%	8
Culture	57% (4/7)	-3%	7
Economy	33% (1/3)	+29%	3
Crypto	67% (2/3)	+47%	3

Other434 bets
Hit rate
64% (277/434)
ROI
+8%
Politics112 bets
Hit rate
61% (68/112)
ROI
+1%
Sports40 bets
Hit rate
57% (23/40)
ROI
+3%
Geopolitics9 bets
Hit rate
67% (6/9)
ROI
-27%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
63% (5/8)
ROI
+14%
Culture7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
-3%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+29%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+47%

Track record

63% hit · 386/616

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Yes	$261	87.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?	Yes	$45	70.1¢	Won
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?	Yes	$13	7.6¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?	No	$473	81.2¢	Lost
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$66	1.8¢	Lost
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-27?	Yes	$6	89.9¢	Won
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	No	$10	6.4¢	Lost
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?	Yes	$56	70.0¢	Lost
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	Yes	$57	85.8¢	Won
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	$27	71.0¢	Won
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	Yes	$28	14.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$25	81.0¢	Won
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	$166	83.0¢	Won
Timberwolves vs. Clippers	Timberwolves	$5	79.0¢	Won
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	No	$81	80.6¢	Won
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026?	No	$93	85.0¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	$5	82.1¢	Won
Ruse vs. Masarova: Total Sets O/U 2.5	Over 2.5	$3	65.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$42	20.8¢	Lost
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?	Yes	$5	11.7¢	Lost
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?	No	$179	89.7¢	Won
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	Yes	$15	30.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$118	39.3¢	Lost
Wang vs. Arango: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5	Over	$3	51.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?	No	$12	63.3¢	Won
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$39	42.9¢	Lost
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$540	84.3¢	Won
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?	Yes	$10	80.0¢	Won
Transylvania Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Rebeka Masarova	Ruse	$10	51.4¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?	No	$431	79.1¢	Lost
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?	No	$9	23.0¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	Yes	$15	53.0¢	Lost
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Yes	$35	70.0¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?	No	$24	31.7¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$312	81.9¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$400	80.4¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?	Yes	$35	50.0¢	Won
Will Li Guyi perform at the Spring Festival Gala?	No	$49	80.9¢	Won
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?	Yes	$46	64.9¢	Won
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$20	88.0¢	Won
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	$83	69.5¢	Lost
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	$41	68.9¢	Won
Will Trump Leave China on May 15?	Yes	$9	87.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?	No	$54	79.9¢	Lost
Will "Trump" be said at the Oscars?	Yes	$26	52.0¢	Lost
Will Massimiliano Allegri be the next manager of SSC Napoli?	Yes	$20	80.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$1	57.0¢	Won
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?	No	$206	51.5¢	Won
Will John Cornyn win the first round of the Republican Senate primary election in Texas?	Yes	$3	26.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?	Yes	$8	16.0¢	Lost

World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?Won
Yes$261 @ 87.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Won
Yes$45 @ 70.1¢
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Lost
Yes$13 @ 7.6¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?Lost
No$473 @ 81.2¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$66 @ 1.8¢
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-27?Won
Yes$6 @ 89.9¢
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?Lost
No$10 @ 6.4¢
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?Lost
Yes$56 @ 70.0¢
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?Won
Yes$57 @ 85.8¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Won
Yes$27 @ 71.0¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Lost
Yes$28 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$25 @ 81.0¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Won
Yes$166 @ 83.0¢
Timberwolves vs. ClippersWon
Timberwolves$5 @ 79.0¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$81 @ 80.6¢
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026?Won
No$93 @ 85.0¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Won
No$5 @ 82.1¢
Ruse vs. Masarova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Won
Over 2.5$3 @ 65.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$42 @ 20.8¢
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?Lost
Yes$5 @ 11.7¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Won
No$179 @ 89.7¢
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?Lost
Yes$15 @ 30.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$118 @ 39.3¢
Wang vs. Arango: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Lost
Over$3 @ 51.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?Won
No$12 @ 63.3¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$39 @ 42.9¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$540 @ 84.3¢
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?Won
Yes$10 @ 80.0¢
Transylvania Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Rebeka MasarovaLost
Ruse$10 @ 51.4¢
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?Lost
No$431 @ 79.1¢
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?Lost
No$9 @ 23.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Lost
Yes$15 @ 53.0¢
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?Won
Yes$35 @ 70.0¢
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?Lost
No$24 @ 31.7¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$312 @ 81.9¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$400 @ 80.4¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?Won
Yes$35 @ 50.0¢
Will Li Guyi perform at the Spring Festival Gala?Won
No$49 @ 80.9¢
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?Won
Yes$46 @ 64.9¢
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?Won
Yes$20 @ 88.0¢
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Lost
No$83 @ 69.5¢
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$41 @ 68.9¢
Will Trump Leave China on May 15?Won
Yes$9 @ 87.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?Lost
No$54 @ 79.9¢
Will "Trump" be said at the Oscars?Lost
Yes$26 @ 52.0¢
Will Massimiliano Allegri be the next manager of SSC Napoli?Won
Yes$20 @ 80.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$1 @ 57.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?Won
No$206 @ 51.5¢
Will John Cornyn win the first round of the Republican Senate primary election in Texas?Won
Yes$3 @ 26.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January?Lost
Yes$8 @ 16.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Wang Mei-hui win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	76.7¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	76.4¢
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$737	55.2¢
Will Yu Shu-chen win the next Hualien County Magistrate election?	Politics	Yes	$707	72.1¢
Will Hsieh Kuo-liang win the next Keelung Mayor election?	Politics	Yes	$567	74.7¢
Will Wang Chung-ming win the next Lienchiang County Magistrate election?	Politics	Yes	$365	75.1¢
Will John Thune be the next US Senate Minority Leader?	Politics	No	$330	55.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$251	42.3¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$229	76.3¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$204	68.0¢
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$192	64.0¢
Will John Cornyn endorse Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate Election?	Politics	No	$156	78.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$118	59.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$104	52.0¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$92	37.7¢
Will Wu Tsung-hsien win the next Yilan County Magistrate election?	Politics	Yes	$85	24.3¢
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between thirteen and fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?	Politics	No	$81	89.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$72	72.0¢
Will Hsu Hsin-ying win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?	Politics	Yes	$70	35.0¢
Will Manchester City be deducted 0 Premier League points?	Sports	No	$64	69.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Sports	No	$62	77.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$59	29.5¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Politics	No	$54	72.9¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Economy	No	$54	27.0¢
Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by October 15?	Politics	No	$50	84.0¢
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$45	34.6¢
Will John Cornyn not endorse anyone in the Texas Senate Election?	Politics	Yes	$44	74.0¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$44	87.0¢
Will Wei Chia-hsien win the next Hualien County Magistrate election?	Politics	No	$40	80.0¢
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$26	13.0¢

Will Wang Mei-hui win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 76.7¢
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 76.4¢
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?Politics
Yes$737 @ 55.2¢
Will Yu Shu-chen win the next Hualien County Magistrate election?Politics
Yes$707 @ 72.1¢
Will Hsieh Kuo-liang win the next Keelung Mayor election?Politics
Yes$567 @ 74.7¢
Will Wang Chung-ming win the next Lienchiang County Magistrate election?Politics
Yes$365 @ 75.1¢
Will John Thune be the next US Senate Minority Leader?Politics
No$330 @ 55.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$251 @ 42.3¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$229 @ 76.3¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$204 @ 68.0¢
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?Crypto
Yes$192 @ 64.0¢
Will John Cornyn endorse Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate Election?Politics
No$156 @ 78.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$118 @ 59.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$104 @ 52.0¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Politics
Yes$92 @ 37.7¢
Will Wu Tsung-hsien win the next Yilan County Magistrate election?Politics
Yes$85 @ 24.3¢
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between thirteen and fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?Politics
No$81 @ 89.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$72 @ 72.0¢
Will Hsu Hsin-ying win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?Politics
Yes$70 @ 35.0¢
Will Manchester City be deducted 0 Premier League points?Sports
No$64 @ 69.0¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Sports
No$62 @ 77.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$59 @ 29.5¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Politics
No$54 @ 72.9¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Economy
No$54 @ 27.0¢
Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by October 15?Politics
No$50 @ 84.0¢
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$45 @ 34.6¢
Will John Cornyn not endorse anyone in the Texas Senate Election?Politics
Yes$44 @ 74.0¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$44 @ 87.0¢
Will Wei Chia-hsien win the next Hualien County Magistrate election?Politics
No$40 @ 80.0¢
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$26 @ 13.0¢